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From Zepbound to Foundayo: Lilly's Latest Results Support Oral GLP-1 Outlook
Written by Leo Miller. Published: 5/20/2026.
Key Points
- Eli Lilly saw a huge gain after its recent earnings report, but the wins didn't stop there
- Lilly also recently got a boost after releasing strong results for its oral GLP-1, Foundayo
- The data provides evidence that Foundayo is effective in helping keep lost weight off, supporting an emerging growth vertical for Lilly
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Shares of Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY), the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical stock, started 2026 on a rough note. By late April, LLY shares had fallen as much as 20%. Since then, however, the stock has rebounded sharply.
Lilly’s highly impressive earnings report helped spark the rally, with shares surging nearly 10% in a single day. Lilly has continued to grind higher and is now down only around 5% in 2026.
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Get the SpaceX infrastructure stock name and ticker hereOne recent catalyst for the stock was the latest update on its oral GLP-1 medication Foundayo. While Foundayo is already approved by the Food and Drug Administration, the testing doesn’t end there. By generating more robust data across a wider range of uses, Lilly can improve the odds that doctors will prescribe it. The company’s latest results support that important goal.
Foundayo’s 2-Pronged Attack: Needle-Fear Patients and Maintenance Patients
The trial in question focuses on weight-loss maintenance, or helping patients keep the weight off after they stop taking high-dose GLP-1s. For Lilly, this is part of a two-pronged strategy to generate demand for Foundayo.
The first part involves attracting entirely new patients. Researchers estimate that up to 25% of U.S. adults have a fear of needles, which keeps some patients who want to lose weight from taking injectable GLP-1s. Pill-based medications could unlock demand from this group.
However, Lilly is trailing Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO) in oral uptake, as Novo received approval for its oral weight-loss drug several months earlier. Novo’s pill has also shown efficacy that modestly tops Foundayo. Novo says the Wegovy pill delivers average weight loss of 14% after 64 weeks among patients. That compares with average weight loss of 12.4% after 72 weeks for Foundayo.
According to BMO Capital Markets, “While Foundayo scripts have been trending upward since launch in April, scripts have lagged vs. those of the Wegovy Pill and Street expectations.”
Lilly may have a better opportunity to differentiate itself in the second part of its strategy: weight-loss maintenance. Injectables are more effective than either pill, with Lilly touting average weight loss of 20.2% at 72 weeks for patients using Zepbound. That means patients can lose substantial weight on injectables and then transition to pills to help keep it off.
In doing so, Lilly can drive recurring sales of Foundayo as patients make the switch. Its latest Foundayo results offered encouraging data on that front.
Foundayo: Weight Loss Maintenance Improves Dramatically Versus Going Cold Turkey
In its ATTAIN-MAINTAIN trial, Lilly studied patients who had lost significant weight while taking Zepbound. During the Zepbound phase, patients lost an average of 55 lbs. They then transitioned to Foundayo for 52 weeks, gaining back 11 lbs. In other words, when Foundayo was used as a maintenance treatment, patients regained only 20% of their original weight loss.
That is a strong result, especially since patients who stop GLP-1s altogether tend to regain much more weight. A recent analysis of 48 studies found that patients regained 60% of their original weight loss within one year of stopping GLP-1s. In that context, Lilly’s result shows weight maintenance that is three times better than what is seen when patients stop GLP-1 treatment entirely.
Lilly also ran the same test on patients who initially lost 41 lbs using injectable Wegovy. After switching to Foundayo for 52 weeks, these patients regained just 2 lbs—another strong result. In the end, Zepbound-to-Foundayo patients lost 17.2% of their weight, while Wegovy-to-Foundayo patients lost 15.5% on average.
These results clearly suggest that transitioning to Foundayo after using injectables can be an effective way to keep weight off. Notably, Lilly shares rose 2.4% on the day of the data release.
There is also reason to believe Foundayo will appeal more as a weight-loss maintenance treatment than the Wegovy pill. It comes with no dietary restrictions, while doctors advise Wegovy pill patients not to eat or drink for 30 minutes after taking the medication.
Ultimately, convenience is a major reason people would want to switch from injectables to pills. With no dietary restrictions, Lilly has an advantage here. Still, it will be interesting to see whether Novo conducts a similar maintenance study that could change the competitive landscape in this segment.
Analysts Forecast Substantial Upside in Lilly After Recent Rebound
Overall, targeting the weight-loss maintenance market is one of several levers Eli Lilly can use to continue growing its GLP-1 business. Even with Lilly trading less than 10% below its all-time high, Wall Street analysts still expect substantial upside ahead. The MarketBeat consensus price target on the stock sits near $1,218, implying upside of just over 20%.
China Deal Ignites Boeing's Financial Afterburners
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. Published: 5/29/2026.
Key Points
- Federal regulators have authorized Boeing to increase its jet production, validating the company's operational and safety improvements.
- A landmark new aircraft order from Chinese airlines provides guaranteed demand, securing Boeing's extensive future production schedule.
- Boeing's improving operational cash flow points toward a sustained period of accelerating financial performance and profitability.
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For nearly two years, the investment narrative surrounding Boeing (NYSE: BA) has been defined by regulatory scrutiny and production bottlenecks.
The market's persistent focus on past headlines has created a valuation disconnect for the aerospace sector giant, obscuring a fundamental turnaround in operational execution and free cash flow generation. Recent catalysts, however, suggest the window to acquire shares of this airline before that reality is fully priced in may be closing.
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When the SpaceX IPO launches, most retail investors will be locked out. The banks, funds, and insiders get in early - while everyone else waits on the sidelines.
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Get the SpaceX infrastructure stock name and ticker hereThe combination of a key regulatory clearance and the structural de-risking of its order book has created a tangible inflection point. Wall Street's fixation on historical missteps is lagging a powerful financial recovery unfolding on the factory floor and in the order pipeline. For investors focused on underlying business fundamentals, the data suggests a new chapter is taking flight.
The Green Light: From Grounded to Gaining Altitude
The most significant headwind suppressing Boeing's valuation has been the stringent oversight from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which previously capped 737 MAX production. That cap has officially been lifted, marking a new phase of operational freedom.
The New 47-Jet Production Floor
The FAA's recent capstone review of Boeing's safety and quality control protocols concluded with authorization to increase the 737 MAX production rate from 42 to 47 jets per month. Investors should view this as more than an incremental increase; it is a critical validation that the operational overhaul is meeting the highest regulatory standards.
Management has confirmed that its primary facility in Renton, Washington, is already stabilizing at this newly authorized cadence, laying the groundwork for predictable delivery schedules and revenue recognition. This regulatory pivot marks the effective end of the penalty-box period, shifting the narrative from compliance to scalable execution.
Plotting the Course to 52 Jets a Month
With the 47-jet rate serving as the new baseline, the next major catalyst is the push toward 52 jets per month. This target depends heavily on the successful activation of a fourth 737 production line at the Everett, Washington, facility.
This expansion, targeted for early 2027, is key to unlocking the next tier of cash flow generation. The market appears to be discounting the probability of this milestone, yet the initial FAA clearance provides a clear operational precedent. Achieving this rate would move Boeing closer to its pre-crisis production levels and signal a more complete operational recovery.
De-Risking Boeing's Massive $695 Billion Backlog
A factory cleared to run at higher rates is only valuable if there is a committed buyer for every unit that rolls off the assembly line. The recent thawing of trade relations with China has provided exactly that, removing a major source of demand uncertainty that has weighed on the stock for years.
Following a high-level U.S. trade delegation to Beijing, Chinese airlines committed to an order for 200 Boeing aircraft. Boeing's management has characterized this as an initial tranche, suggesting a larger, multi-stage procurement cycle is on the horizon.
This development is far more significant than a simple sales win. It effectively reopens a vital geographic market, providing the demand absorption necessary to support the Everett line expansion without creating a surplus of undelivered inventory, which would pressure margins. This structural de-risking of Boeing's massive $695 billion backlog, which includes over 6,100 commercial aircraft, cannot be overstated.
The Fuel Burn Rate: Boeing's Cash Flow Engine Ignites
Ultimately, the investment thesis rests on translating production rates and backlog security into tangible free cash flow (FCF). The latest financial data confirms this inflection is not a future projection but a current reality.
In the first quarter of 2026, Boeing's operating cash flow deficit narrowed dramatically to just $179 million. This represents a $1.44 billion sequential improvement from the $1.62 billion deficit reported in the year-ago quarter.
This progress provides strong validation for full-year FCF guidance, with analyst consensus targeting between $2.3 billion and $2.46 billion for fiscal 2026. That would mark a definitive return to positive FCF after years of cash burn.
Looking forward, this trajectory is expected to accelerate significantly as production rates climb. Current models project FCF could expand to $6.4 billion in 2027 before crossing the critical $10 billion threshold by 2028, driving substantial growth in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).
Why Supply Chains Can't Ground Boeing
No industrial expansion of this scale is without risk.
The primary macroeconomic headwind threatening the 2027 expansion timeline is not internal execution but external vendor cadence. The global aerospace supply chain remains tight, with engine availability, specifically from key suppliers like GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE), posing the most material bottleneck.
However, recent SEC filings indicate that institutional capital is positioning for the upside, viewing these supply constraints as transient rather than structural. Aggressive accumulation by funds like Dilation Capital Management ahead of the FAA announcement suggests sophisticated investors are focused on the long-term cash flow potential and willing to look past near-term production friction. This institutional confidence provides a powerful counter-signal to prevailing market fears.
A Closing Gate? Is It Time to Board Boeing Stock?
The combination of regulatory normalization, a de-risked order book, and a clear inflection in cash flow presents a compelling setup for Boeing.
The market appears to be undervaluing a clear operational turnaround, offering a potential opportunity for investors with a time horizon that extends beyond the next few quarters.
The primary risks are now centered on supply chain execution, a manageable challenge compared to the existential regulatory threats of the past.
For those focused on fundamental analysis, the current share price may not fully reflect the economics of a stabilized 47-jet production rate, let alone the potential of a 52-jet baseline in 2027.
Investors might consider the recent developments as the definitive signal that Boeing's financial trajectory is finally poised to outpace the lingering negative headlines.
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