From 9:30 to 4:00, most traders are fighting the loudest, most manipulated, most chaotic hours of the market day.
Fakeouts. Algos. Reversals. Panic moves. Headline reactions. Six hours of noise designed to keep you reacting instead of profiting.
Wall Street has you exactly where it wants you.
We found a different window.
Not during the trading day. After it. When the crowd goes quiet. When the algorithms stop whipping price around. When stocks tend to drift toward their levels without the intraday chaos getting in the way.
That's the 4PM window. And a Columbia Business School study found the majority of the stock market's total gains over the last two decades happened right there — between the close at 4 PM and the next morning's open.
$1 in the daytime market over thirty years is now 95 cents. $1 in the 4PM window is $17.
In Wednesday's recording I show you what's been happening inside it.
Tesla — $0.55 per contract — +281% by the next morning. Broadcom — to the downside — +263% overnight. On a move of less than 1% in the underlying. Microsoft +222%. Meta +217%. Apple +215%.
The recording is up for a limited time. Watch it before it comes down.
P.S. 9:30 to 4 is where Wall Street wants you. The 4PM window is where the real money has been moving. The recording shows you exactly how.Watch it here ›
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After facing blazes in the worst wildfire season on record last year, European firefighters issued a warning: they’re ill-prepared to face devastating fires expected to burn large swaths of the continent this summer.
Europe is facing another summer of intense wildfires, but firefighters who will be on the frontline warn that they’re entering the season under-funded, under-equipped and under-staffed.
The continent experienced its worst season for wildfires on record last year, with blazes burning through over one million hectares across, an area equivalent to the whole of the island of Cyprus. The wettest winter in years in parts of the Mediterranean has led to vegetation overgrowing in many forests, and firefighters fear extreme heat could turn bushes and grass into fuel for fires.
Forest firefighters during a union demonstration in Madrid, on Oct. 18.
Photographer: Juan Barbosa/Europa Press/Getty Images
The European Union is gearing up for the season, stationing a record 777 firefighters from 14 EU countries in high-risk areas across the Mediterranean to assist local teams when large fires break out. But firefighters and their unions told Bloomberg that they feel ill-prepared for what’s to come.
“Our people are really angry,” said Simón Alonso, a spokesman for the Atifcyl association of forest fire workers in the Spanish region of Castilla y León. “Some people have been trained but not hired, others have been hired but have nothing to do because orders are not coming from above — everything is completely disjointed.”
Last autumn, after the 2025 wildfires were extinguished, firefighters in Portugal, Spain, Greece and France took to the streets calling for higher wages, year-round contracts, better equipment and more resources.
In Portugal, firefighters are asking for a permanent funding mechanism.
Photographer: Brais Lorenzo/Bloomberg
Some of those demands remain unresolved. On May 27, nine French firefighting unions met for the first time ever with advisors of Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu in Paris and told them “the system is at a breaking point,” said Alain Laratta, secretary general at the Avenir Secours union. About 80% of French firefighters are volunteers, with budgets depending on over 100 different regional and local governments. Firefighters called for a unified funding system.
In Portugal, firefighters are asking for a permanent funding mechanism to insulate them from the vagaries of economic cycles and budgetary constraints. The League of Portuguese Firefighters, a federation of fire brigades and associations, plans to submit a bill to parliament that will propose tapping oil levies, as well as car and fire insurance taxes, to finance the scheme.
In Greece, preparations for the season have been more comprehensive, according to Antonios Koukouzas, president of the EPAYPS Greek firefighters’ union and a fire major in the eastern Attica region. More personnel have been hired and there are more helicopters and aircraft available than in previous years.
In Greece there are more helicopters and aircraft available than in previous seasons.
Photographer: Nick Paleologos/Bloomberg
In Spain, efforts to strengthen fire response have been unequal across regions and parts of the administration, and at times chaotic, according to accounts by several firefighters, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of repercussions from their employers. Fire response in the country mainly depends on regional authorities, some of which rely entirely on public servants, while others also resort to private contractors.
Alonso — who works in a helicopter brigade operated by the central government’s Minister for the Environmental Transition — and two other firefighters said contractors for local and regional governments have incentives to cut costs. That means they can put in more competitive bids by paying lower salaries, providing older and lower quality equipment and hiring fewer people than their contracts require, the firefighters said.
“Fires are becoming more violent and the only way to stop them is with permanent systems that can help prevent them,” Alonso said. “If our structure remains temporary, disjointed, inefficient and privatized, this will happen again and it will be worse.”
Governments have failed to do fire prevention work for years, and for the past decades they focused on preserving forests that thrived under a climate that no longer exists, said Marc Castellnou, head of forests for firefighters in the Spanish northeastern region of Catalonia. “Managing the land requires decades, it’s not just a matter of one winter,” Castellnou said.
“We were not ready for this. There was a lack of coordination, but what coordination could there be when it was so violent, so big and fast and happening everywhere at the same time?”
Patricia Lamela
Mayor of Larouco, a Spanish town hit by wildfires in 2025
The Trump administration is dropping near-term plans to dismantle a $386 million federal ocean-observing system after encountering resistance from scientists and Congress.
The National Science Foundation said Thursday it will pause efforts to decommission most of the Ocean Observatories Initiative, a network of sensors in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans that track climate change, marine ecosystems and coastal flooding. The agency will conduct a review of the system’s future with stakeholders, it said in a statement.
Researchers conduct routine maintenance on a research buoy in Biscayne Bay in Miami.
Photographer: Joe Raedle/Getty Images via Getty Images North America
The change comes a day after the US Senate passed a bipartisan measure to halt what lawmakers called the “reckless” dismantling of the network. That effort was led by Senators Jeff Merkley of Oregon, a Democrat, and Lisa Murkowski, an Alaska Republican. Merkley described the planned dismantling of the system as “supreme stupidity.”
Known as OOI, the Ocean Observatories Initiative entered into full operation in 2016 and was designed to provide continuous observations for at least 25 years. Last month, the NSF announced that it would remove almost all in-water infrastructure belonging to the system. The agency said at the time that it sought to align research infrastructure spending with evolving scientific priorities and emerging technologies.
The NSF said in its Thursday statement that one of the seven OOI arrays, the Endurance Array off the coast of Oregon, has already been removed. The agency plans to “redeploy” that equipment “after servicing,” it said.
The key to tackling climate change is moving away from burning fossil fuels to using renewable energy. But in his book More and More and More, French historian Jean-Baptiste Fressoz argues that the world has never actually managed a successful energy transition before and current plans are unrealistic. Many have taken his writing to mean that stopping global warming is impossible, however, he tells Akshat Rathi this week on Zero, his view is actually quite different.
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By Larry Benedict, editor, Trading With Larry Benedict
One of the biggest lessons I’ve learned over more than four decades in the markets is that folks aren’t always rational when it comes to probabilities. Often, people let their imagination override the math.
For example, a lottery ticket can win. And in the markets, a stock can quickly double or triple.
But that doesn’t mean it’s likely to happen.
All the same, people imagine the big payoff, with the joy of being right when everyone else was wrong. And they throw their money down, eagerly anticipating their odds-breaking victory.
It’s an extraordinary platform that uses AI to “go back in time” on the biggest winners in stock market history to unlock massive potential gains in today’s market. When back-tested against the Magnificent Seven, you could have seen a 995% gain on a stock that's better than Alphabet, a 1,406% gain on a stock that’s better than Amazon, and a 3,804% gain on a stock that's better than Nvidia, all in just the past two years. Until June 24, activate your FREE access here (no purchase required).
Possible vs. Probable
Market veterans refer to this phenomenon as the “long-shot bias.” At its core, the long-shot bias occurs because folks tend to confuse what is possible with what is probable. Crowds become so focused on the potential reward that they stop paying attention to the odds.
And when enough people pile into a long shot, it can distort the market. Some of the best opportunities I’ve found during my career come from taking the other side of the trade when the crowd becomes too convinced of a rare outcome.
What results is the long shot gets more expensive… and the smaller trade – with a much more likely outcome – becomes too cheap.
And when that happens, it means you can position yourself for the likelier result for a very reasonable price.
Once you understand how it works, you’ll start seeing it everywhere – including the growing world of prediction markets…
Tune in to Trading With Larry Live
Each week, Market Wizard Larry Benedict goes live to share his thoughts on what’s impacting the markets. Whether you’re a novice or expert trader, you won’t want to miss Larry’s insights and analysis. Even better, it’s free to watch.
Simply visit us on YouTube at 8:30 a.m. ET, Monday through Thursday, to catch the latest.
When Crowd Thinking Distorts the Market
Unlike traditional stocks, where dozens of factors can influence price movements, prediction markets are often built around a single event or outcome. Participants are effectively assigning probabilities to what they think will happen next for a range of scenarios, such as:
How many times will the Federal Reserve cut rates this year?
Who will become the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee?
What will the upcoming inflation print be?
Where will Bitcoin be trading at 5 p.m. today?
This makes market psychology much easier to gauge. You can see where the crowd is too optimistic or fearful.
That’s why I’ve been studying prediction markets so closely – and it’s why I want to help more people profit from this fast-growing space.
In many ways, prediction markets remind me of the options market when I first started trading. Back then, some of the biggest opportunities came from recognizing when the crowd had misjudged the odds.
That’s why I’ve become so excited about prediction markets. I went live on Wednesday night to break down exactly how they work — and how to profit from them.
I hope you had the chance to tune in. But if you missed my “Last Unrigged Market in America” event, the replay is available for a limited time — watch it here.
And stay tuned to hear more about the opportunities in this space. Trades are setting up now…
Happy Trading,
Larry Benedict
Editor, Trading With Larry Benedict
Free Trading Resources
Have you checked out Larry’s free trading resources on his website? It contains a full trading glossary to help kickstart your trading career – at zero cost to you. Just click here to check it out.
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I have known Jeff Bierman for the better part of twenty years.
Long before TheoTrade, the two of us sat in the old Montgomery Ward building down by the river in Chicago, building the thinkorswim tools at TD Ameritrade.
Millions of traders still use that platform every single day. Jeff was the chief market technician on that project, and I watched him think in a way almost nobody in this business can.
He does not see a chart the way you and I see a chart.
So when Jeff tells me he has spent 38 years learning to read something on the screen that the rest of the market cannot see, I do not roll my eyes. I lean in.
This is a Chartered Market Technician who teaches graduate finance at Loyola and gets booked on CNBC and Bloomberg, and he is about to walk away from the script all of those shows want him to read.
Here is what got my attention.
Jeff has been quietly tracking the machines that now run this market. Not since ChatGPT, he is talking about years of high-speed firms and algorithms sitting on the other side of your trades, the ones that keep taking the wins you should have had.
He calls that army of machines the swarm. And he has figured out that they leave a trace on the chart when they move, a kind of footprint, and that footprint shows up before the stock actually goes.
I will give you one example, and then I want you to hear the rest from him directly. Last November, while every anchor in the country was screaming about whether the AI trade was finally cracking, Jeff was not even watching Nvidia. He was looking at a sleepy oil stock nobody wanted, sitting at its lows, because the footprint told him to.
That boring stock went on a run while the crowd was busy panicking about something else entirely.
That is the part I cannot do justice to in an email. Jeff put together a full presentation where he shows you the footprint on a live chart, with his own eyes and yours, including ones forming right now this week. He explains exactly what the swarm is, why it has been beating you, and how reading the trace it leaves can finally put you on the right side of it.
I have known a lot of traders in my career.
Very few of them are worth an hour of your time. Jeff is one of them, and I am telling you that as someone who sat next to him and watched him work.
