Sunday, April 19, 2026

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Jeff Brown here.

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And I’ll tell you about one AI loser to avoid.

This company is losing money… sales are declining… and insiders are dumping shares.

I wouldn’t be surprised if shares go to $0.

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Jeff Brown
Founder & CEO, Brownstone Research

The Road Not Taken: What Frost Actually Meant



The Road Not Taken: What Frost Actually Meant

by Blake Young


Hey trader, 

You're watching crude oil push into a major resistance zone. Price has been climbing for days, fueled by Middle East tension and whispers that the Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted.

Every headline is bullish. Every trader in the room is talking about how high it could go.

Then, quietly, news breaks that the strait is reopening. The geopolitical premium baked into every barrel starts unwinding in real time.

If you had a process, you saw it.

If you had rules around topping signals at resistance with a catalyst shift, your entry was clear and your stop was tight. You were positioned for one of the biggest pullbacks crude had seen in years.

The risk was minimal. The reward was substantial.

But if you stood there frozen, debating whether the news was real or whether you should wait for one more confirmation, the opportunity moved without you.

That's Edward Thomas at the crossroads.

Now let's talk about why that happens so often, and why a 200 year old poem might explain it better than any trading psychology book.

"The Road Not Taken" by Robert Frost is arguably one of the most well-known poems in the English language.

Most of us have heard it, and most of us have drawn the same wisdom from its final lines: taking the road less traveled "makes all the difference."

The implication seems clear. Avoid the easy, well-worn path and you'll get a better outcome.

Be independent. Stand out. Forge your own way.

That's the meaning I carried with me for years, until I discovered what Frost actually intended.

According to the Poetry Foundation, Frost wrote the poem for his close friend and fellow poet, Edward Thomas.

Thomas was notoriously indecisive. He would delay decisions as long as possible, and once he finally chose, he'd immediately lament that he should have gone the other way.

Sound familiar?

"The Road Not Taken" wasn't an inspiring call to individualism. It was Frost gently ribbing his friend for his chronic indecision and his habit of second-guessing every choice.

Go back and read the poem with that lens:

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, And sorry I could not travel both And be one traveler, long I stood And looked down one as far as I could To where it bent in the undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair, And having perhaps the better claim, Because it was grassy and wanted wear; Though as for that the passing there Had worn them really about the same,

And both that morning equally lay In leaves no step had trodden black. Oh, I kept the first for another day! Yet knowing how way leads on to way, I doubted if I should ever come back.

I shall be telling this with a sigh Somewhere ages and ages hence: Two roads diverged in a wood, and I, I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference.

Notice that the paths were worn nearly the same. There was no clearly superior road.

And that final "sigh?"

It isn't triumph. It's regret.

The narrator already knows that someday he'll romanticize this moment and pretend the choice was obvious, when really, it was just a guess between two nearly identical options.

So what does any of this have to do with trading?

Everything.

Frost's gentle mockery of Thomas gives us two lessons that translate directly to the charts.

Lesson One: Indecision is costly.

When you stand frozen in front of a setup, the market doesn't wait for you. Price moves away from your entry, your risk parameters shift, and a clean signal becomes a chase trade.

The longer you hesitate, the worse the trade gets.

Or you miss it entirely and spend the next hour wishing you'd pulled the trigger.

Back on that crude oil chart, the trader who waited for certainty either chased price down and took on far more risk than the setup warranted, or they sat on their hands and watched it happen.

That's Edward Thomas at the crossroads, again, staring at two roads while the market walks away.

Lesson Two: Second-guessing is a silent account killer.

When you make a trade and immediately start wondering if you should have done the opposite, you're building a bias that corrupts everything that follows.

Losses become proof you made the wrong call. Wins get dismissed as luck.

Your own testing and system rules become noise because your emotions are louder.

Over time, this erodes confidence in a valid system and leads to exactly the kind of inconsistent, reactive trading that blows up accounts.

Here is the part worth sitting with.

Even if you had taken the crude trade and been wrong, a well-structured entry near the signal meant your stop was close and your exposure was small.

A loss would have been a small, defined, forgettable data point in a larger system.

Instead, the version of that trade most people actually took was the emotional one. Entered late, with a wide stop, and a whole lot of hope.

That's the real cost of indecision.

It doesn't just make you miss trades. It makes the trades you do take worse.

The antidote to both problems is the same: have a process, not a preference.

When you know in advance how you will make a decision, what criteria must be met, what invalidates a setup, where your entry and stop live, then reaching a fork in the road stops being a moment of choice.

It starts being a moment of execution.

You're not picking a path. You're following a map you already drew.

Don't be Edward Thomas.

Build your rules before you reach the crossroads. Then trust them.

Blake Young
Senior Market Strategist, TheoTRADE

 



Disclaimer: Neither TheoTrade.com  or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or FINRA |SIPC |NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment product, transaction or investment.Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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He doesn't buy gold. He just profits from it.

The full three-step strategy revealed ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­
stocksearning
A message from Brownstone Research   

Editor's Note: Our colleague, the former $900 million hedge fund manager Larry Benedict, has discovered a way to make money from gold… WITHOUT buying a single ounce. Read on to learn more…


Dear Reader,

Imagine collecting $42,920 in cash profits from the gold market.

You don't need to own a single ounce of gold.

You don't need to buy coins, bars, or stocks.

Yet you could have made $2,975 from one move. $3,781 from another. And even $6,786 from a five-day gold decline.

The secret?

A strategy called "Gold Skimming," developed by a man named Larry Benedict…

His hedge fund generated $274 million in profits. Barron's ranked it in the top 1% worldwide.

And now he’s applying the same strategy to the gold market, simplified so anyone can follow it.

He’s broken the whole thing down into three steps you can do in a regular brokerage account.

Hundreds of regular people are doing this, and you can too.

Because the gold market is going crazy right now, Larry is revealing the whole strategy for free.

He just released a short presentation walking through the entire thing from start to finish.

Click here to watch it now while it’s still online.

Regards,

Kim Moening
Host, Gold Skimming







Today’s editorial pick for you

Rocket Companies (RKT) Stock is Risky But There’s a Contrarian Play Here


Posted On Apr 17, 2026 by Joshua Enomoto

At a glance, fintech specialist Rocket Companies (NYSE:RKT) — which specializes in mortgages and other homeownership services — doesn’t seem like a natural bullish target in 2026. The economy is struggling, geopolitical flashpoints are raging, and benchmark interest rates are sky-high relative to their pre-COVID levels. There’s also the matter of RKT stock losing about 20% on a year-to-date basis.

Still, you don’t typically find outsized opportunities from obvious trades. For the highest of rewards, you usually have to accept a greater margin of risk. RKT may not be a contrarian move for its own sake. Instead, some justifying points underscore the aggressive bullish thesis.

First, on a broader level, no one can deny that the economy isn’t firing on all cylinders. However, it’s not a pure headwind for all categories. Because of the K-shaped recovery from the pandemic, the top arm of the K is essentially doing the heavy lifting, especially for the housing market.

Translation? First-time buyers only represent 21% of the market — a record low. Still, equity-rich players (such as repeat buyers or those from older generations) aren’t as sensitive to the 6.3% mortgage rates due to a variety of factors. These include higher income levels and significant cash holdings from prior home sales.

Another critical factor to consider is the aforementioned rate sensitivity and the possible “refi” opportunity. Sure, the current 30-year fixed is hovering around 6.4%. However, the key characteristic to note is the 60-month beta of RKT stock. If the benchmark rate experiences any downward movement — which is something the Trump administration has long pushed for — RKT could see a disproportionately positive impact.

Fundamentally, there’s a massive backlog of “locked-in” homeowners. Therefore, even a modest dip in rates could trigger a significant refinancing wave. Thanks to Rocket’s digital-first platform, the company can scale capacity almost instantly to meet a surge in volume — offering a sharp contrast to traditional retail banks.

Of course, from a trading perspective, such a thesis extends beyond a typical short-term timeframe. Nevertheless, the front-running sentiment of such a move could trigger active motion in RKT.

Using Inductive Math to Strategize a Plan for RKT

While the fundamental narrative underpinning the contrarian case for Rocket stock is intriguing, I’ll be the first to admit it doesn’t provide a quantifiable blueprint for trading RKT. Yeah, there’s potentially a reversion-to-the-mean play here with the security suffering red ink over the past few months. It does seem, though, that RKT has found a bottom on March 30.

Still, that doesn’t definitively answer the question: where will RKT head and within what timeframe?

That’s perhaps the biggest difference between options trading and writing a standard finpub piece. With the latter, you can handwave an explanation, and there’s always a solid chance that dumb luck may be enough to make you look prescient. Unfortunately, with the former, handwaving isn’t effective because there are time-based endpoints to meet.

In this scenario, we need to find a more tangible methodology. That’s where induction comes into view.

At the end of the day, induction is pattern recognition, relying heavily on the uniformity of nature: the assumption that the future will behave like the past.

Consider our national pastime. If a player has a career hitting average of .250, the basic inductive assumption is that for every 100 pitches that they see, they’re going to hit 25 of them. As such, people often talk about players being due for a timely contribution. I hypothesize that the equities market works in a similar fashion.

For RKT stock, a random 10-week hold (using data going back to the company’s initial public offering) should yield a forward distribution landing between roughly $15.20 and $16.20, assuming a starting price of $15.56. Notably, the exceedance ratio — or the likelihood that this 10-week long position will end up in the black — stands at 55%.

RKT - StockEarnings

That’s a solid statistic, meaning that out of 100 times you buy RKT stock, you’re likely to be profitable 55 times. But we’re not interested per se in understanding the forward probability under aggregate conditions. Rather, we’re interested in the expected distribution of outcomes in the current behavioral state.

In the past 10 weeks, Rocket stock has only printed three up weeks, leading to an overall downward slope. This 3-7-D quantitative signal statistically carries a different distribution relative to the aggregate of all signals. Under this behavioral state, we would expect RKT to range between $14 and $20.50, with probability density peaking on average at $17.

Now, we have an identifiable target that we can potentially exploit.

Zeroing In on a Specific Trading Idea

Honestly, with the inductive math above, my job is doing itself. Aggressive contrarians may want to consider the 17/18 bull call spread expiring June 18. This trade involves buying the $17 call and selling the $18 call simultaneously on a single execution. We’re looking for RKT stock to rise through the $18 strike at expiration. If it does, the maximum (capped) payout clocks in at over 138%.

Adding to the enticing nature of the trade, the breakeven price on this bull spread sits at $17.42. It’s a bit beyond the expected peak probability density, landing at $17. However, this is arguably a reasonable stretch as prior technical support for RKT stock was around $18. Thus, if a reversion to the mean happens, the second-leg strike is well within the realm of rationality.

In fact, I wouldn’t be opposed to the ultra-aggressive 18/19 bull spread (also expiring June 18). Yes, $19 would stretch into the final third of the expected forward distribution. However, with a net debit per spread of only $30, it’s a low capital exposure with plenty of upside. Should RKT stock rise through the $19 strike at expiration, the max payout would be over 233%.

Granted, Rocket stock is an extremely ambitious idea. Further, induction is not foolproof, which is subject to the black swan risk. In other words, just because you see a thousand white swans doesn’t necessarily mean that all swans are white. Nevertheless, in a world of uncertainties, induction is perhaps the best tool retail traders have to level the playing field.




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ASML earnings beat bullish for this Pre-IPO

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Bitcoin price jumps towards $80,000 after Strait of Hormuz shipping route declared open

You’re in — one last step

Hi, Jeff Brown here. Congratulations, and thank you for registering for my strate...