Monday, September 7, 2026

Why you shouldn't give a damn what The Fed does

On September 16th at 2:00 PM, the Fed drops a statement that splits the entire market into three distinct groups:


Group one guesses: gambling their hard-earned retirement on a coin flip. Group two freezes: watching Wall Street rip the shirt off their back while calling the damage "patience." Both groups got destroyed on July 29th, and both are starving for a second chance they’re about to blow all over again.


Then there is the third group. They don't care if Powell cuts, holds, or hikes. Step in before the panic, execute a cold, calculated pre-positioning setup, and force Wall Street to pay up while everyone else bleeds out.


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Sunday, September 6, 2026

Don’t Buy Bitcoin Until You Read This

Launching My First Hedge Fund Months Before the Dot-Com Bubble Burst

In today's Masters Series, Whitney Tilson shares the lesson he learned that saved his family and friends' money while other investors lost big during the dot-com crash...
 
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Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999

Editor's note: During market mania, you need to stay disciplined...

When Stansberry Investment Advisory editor Whitney Tilson launched his first hedge fund, he soon realized that he needed a plan if he wanted to be successful.

You see, blindly following the crowd and pouring money into popular stocks is a risky venture.

In today's Masters Series, Whitney shares the lesson he learned that saved his family and friends money while other investors lost big during the dot-com crash...


Launching My First Hedge Fund Months Before the Dot-Com Bubble Burst

By Whitney Tilson, editor, Stansberry's Investment Advisory

The "scariest" money I ever managed didn't come from a bank, a stranger, or some faceless billionaire...

It came from the people who would be sitting across from me at Thanksgiving.

That's the money I built my first hedge fund on. It was late 1998. I was around 30 years old, I had no formal training on Wall Street, and I had just made the rash decision to start my own hedge fund.

Looking back, it was reckless. I consulted no one and had no real strategy. All I knew was that the handful of stocks I had been buying had gone up, and I was young and overconfident enough to believe that made me a genius. As the old saying goes, I was confusing brains with a bull market.

I gave myself six weeks to open for business by January 1, 1999. I had to scramble to line up a law firm, a broker, an accountant, and a bookkeeper – all during the holidays. But the hardest part wasn't the paperwork – it was raising the money.

I opened my personal Rolodex and started calling the people closest to me. I moved over the accounts I had been managing for myself and my parents. My in-laws wrote a check. So did a cousin, four friends, and the brother of a business-school classmate. I also got funds from my dear college friend Bill Ackman, along with his father, Larry.

Bill had launched his own hedge fund, Gotham Partners, a few years earlier. Today, he runs Pershing Square Capital Management, one of the most closely followed hedge funds in the world, with more than $32 billion in assets under management. But back then, we were just two young investors with something to prove.

When the dust settled, I opened the doors with about $1 million to manage. It was, without a doubt, one of the smallest hedge funds in the world. Among the first stocks I bought were Berkshire Hathaway (BRK), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN).

What I quickly realized was that when you lose some of a stranger's money, that's a bad quarter. When you lose some of your parents' and best friend's money, that's a bad Thanksgiving. I couldn't hide. Every dollar in that fund had a face attached to it. I knew exactly whose it was.


Recommended Links:

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Whitney Tilson has a remarkable track record of being one step ahead of the market: predicting the 1999 crash... making history with his 2008 call... and buying stocks like Apple, Amazon, and Netflix long before they soared. On Thursday, he's sharing his new prediction – and revealing exactly where your money needs to be for 10X potential returns. Full details here.


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That fear is exactly why I can help you today. You see, I carried my family's savings through the greatest market mania of our lifetimes without blowing them up... and I believe that same discipline is about to matter more than it has in more than 20 years.

I'm convinced we're standing at the edge of another 1999 right now, and where you put your money to work today could be the most important decision you ever make.

Let me explain...

I opened my fund at the single most dangerous moment in a generation, during the peak of the dot-com bubble. The Nasdaq was rocketing straight up. Everyone I met was bragging about some Internet stock that had quickly tripled. People were quitting their jobs to day trade stocks full time.

It felt like the entire country had discovered a machine that was printing cash... and there I was, right in the middle of it, managing my family's hard-earned savings.

For a while, I got swept up in it, too. I owned hot tech names, and in 1999, that felt brilliant. My fund rose 31% that first year, handily outperforming the S&P 500's 21% return. But something started to nag at me...

Bill Ackman sat me down and asked a deceptively simple question about the tech stocks I owned: "Why exactly do you think they're cheap?" I mumbled something about great companies growing fast. He pushed harder. "Yes, but why are they undervalued?" he asked me. I had no answer, because there wasn't one.

That single question changed the course of my investing career.

At the same time, I was also reading the classics of value investing voraciously: Benjamin Graham's bible, The Intelligent Investor... Seth Klarman's classic, Margin of Safety... Peter Lynch's two books, One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street... and Joel Greenblatt's You Can Be a Stock Market Genius. The collective wisdom of these investing giants was starting to sink in.

I remember how excited I was when I discovered that Greenblatt was teaching a course on value investing at Columbia Business School in the spring of 2000.

I found out when and where the class was held, showed up on the first day, and sat quietly in the back of the class. When it was over, I approached him, told him I was a big fan and had just started my own little fund a year earlier, and asked if I could sit in on the class for the rest of the semester.

He frowned. "Well, I'm not supposed to do this," he said. "But if you sit in the back and don't say a word, I'll allow it." I never missed a class.

Learning from a brilliant, legendary value investor at the exact time that the tech bubble was in its final blow-off phase was a transformative experience. It was the defining moment that caused me to shift away from my old, speculative ways and become a true value investor.

Slowly, one simple idea sank into my thick skull: The only sane way to build lasting wealth is to buy wonderful businesses for less than they are worth and then hold on.

So I did something that looked insane at the time. I turned my back on the hype, sold my high-flying tech darlings, and poured nearly a third of my tiny fund into Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway at the precise moment the rest of the world was dumping it to chase tech stocks. Berkshire and the other boring, old-economy businesses I owned were being cast to the side as yesterday's news.

I vividly remember the day the tension finally broke: Friday, March 10, 2000, the day the tech-heavy Nasdaq peaked. Within weeks, the bubble began to collapse. Over the next two and a half years, the Nasdaq fell nearly 80%. Fortunes vanished into thin air. Those "genius" day traders were wiped out, and companies that had spent millions on Super Bowl ads a year earlier ceased to exist.

My little fund full of boring, quality businesses held on. While almost everyone around me was being torn apart, the money my friends and family had entrusted me with weathered the storm. Soon, more and more people started asking to invest with me.

The whole experience seared a lesson into me that I've never forgotten: When you're investing money that belongs to real people – people who you know and who trust you – you simply can't afford to blow them up. Not in a bubble, and not in a bull market.

That single, nonnegotiable rule enforces a kind of discipline that most of Wall Street never develops. It won't let you gamble or chase the next shiny thing. It makes you ask one honest question of every investment: "Would I be comfortable telling my own mother to invest in this?"

Years later, I came to realize this was the very same principle Stansberry Research had been built on in its earliest days – buying great, capital-efficient businesses at fair prices – rather than chasing whatever the crowd happened to be hyped about.

That's a big part of why I'm at Stansberry Research today. Because our entire business is built on the promise that we'll only share ideas we would genuinely want our own friends and family to invest in.

When I recommend a stock, I'm doing it the same way I invested back in 1999 – as if your money were my mother's, my father-in-law's, or my best friend's. Because to me, that's exactly what you are – family.

I've lived through previous manias. I know what it feels like to hold the savings of the people I love most while everyone around me is getting rich on nonsense. I know how that story ends, and I can feel the same forces gathering in the market again right now.

So I'm going to do exactly what I did in 1999. I'm going to ignore the hype, hunt relentlessly for world-class businesses, and treat your money like it belongs to the people I care about most. Because it does.

Regards,

Whitney Tilson


Editor's note: Whitney opened his first hedge fund at the single most dangerous moment in a generation, during the peak of the dot-com bubble.

Now, he's convinced we're standing on the edge of another 1999, and where you put your money to work today could be the most important decision you ever make...

That's why Whitney is stepping forward with a brand-new presentation to help everyday investors avoid getting wiped out... while building wealth. Sign up to hear all the details on how to protect and grow your wealth here.

 

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The US is parched and ‘Lake America’ won’t quench it

Why can’t the president get along with the world’s nicest people? ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
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This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, the worst-case destination of Bloomberg Opinion’s opinions. On Sundays, we look at the major themes of the week past and how they will define the week ahead. Sign up for the daily newsletter here. Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to all our coverage.

Flood of Lies

In 2003, my wife and I bought a small bungalow on the North Fork of Long Island with a view of the calm, cool and crowded waters of Peconic Bay, an estuary connecting the Atlantic Ocean to the 8 million people who live on the largest island in the contiguous US.[1] Yes, we were the typical Manhattanites doing something we had absolutely no business doing: purchasing an 80-year-old clapboard farmhouse prey to salt air, nor’easters and East Coast winters (not to mention Tick Armageddon). So, for two decades it has been slowly falling apart.

As a result, we are spending this three-day weekend lugging two decades’ worth of junk — 2012 tax returns! Once-used roller blades! The Adventures of Sharkboy and Lavagirl 3-D on VHS![2] — out of the basement for 1-800-GOT-JUNK to take away on a literal Labor Day for us all. This is not because we are tidy people who love tidying up a century-old cellar. It is because we need to clear the space before the licensed asbestos-abatement crew arrives. And why do we need this abatement? So we can rip out all the pipes down there and have a brand-new heating system installed — boiler, pump and, count ‘em, 14 new radiators. Anybody know how to borrow from a 401(k)?

You know who else has fantastic water views and didn’t know all the trouble they were in for? Canada, that’s who. As we all know, with one swipe of his Magic Sharpie, President Donald Trump created Lake America out of what had been Lake Ontario. And I know it’s true because Google Maps and Apple Maps say so, at least on this side of the border.[3] I hope new Apple CEO John Ternus’ first week on the job will always be remembered for this:

Source: Apple.

Also enjoying water views were Frank Barry and his wife who, as Frank puts it, “picked a helluva time to go RVing in Canada.” Indeed. And while the Canadians he talked to were as genial as their reputation, more than a few said they have little interest in heading south. “Canadian visits to the US have fallen by a quarter since 2024, with one study finding the number to be more than 40%,” notes Frank. “Canadians’ boycott of US liquor and wine has been highly effective, cutting imports by some 70%.” In a nutshell, Frank writes: “It says a lot about a president when he can’t get along with some of the world’s nicest people.”

Marc Champion thinks the US president is acting like the world’s least-nice person. “It sometimes feels as though the Trump administration gets its worldview and foreign policy ideas from a Kremlin School of International Relations course taught by Vladimir Putin — though at a CliffsNotes level that fails to consider how those strategies played out,” Marc writes. “Take the recent breakdown of US trade talks with Canada. The White House approached the meetings less as a negotiation between two partners than as an effort to force tribute from a vassal.”

“Russia’s stance on Ukraine is perhaps a far-fetched comparison with Trump’s view of Canada, because it suggests a future in which American tanks pour across the border,” Marc notes. “But that’s just the worst-case destination for policies of coercion, which tend toward escalation when weaker countries are shocked into confronting their dependencies. Instead of forcing them into line, the coercion more often has the opposite effect, prompting them to diversify their security provision and trade.”

If you don’t believe that, I’m sure Frank’s new Canadian friends can set you straight.

The water theme is more tragic in Nepal: It’s now estimated that 1,000 people have died in massive flooding and more than 4,000 are still missing. “Roads, tourism, trade and settlement are already transforming remote mountain communities,” David Fickling explains. “Meanwhile, warming is destabilizing the very soil on which homes are built, and sparking disastrous floods.”

David has a contrarian suggestion to reduce the risk of future disasters and provide the energy these growing populations need: Giant dams. “Hydroelectricity is one of the few forms of generation to match the rock-bottom prices of wind and solar,” he writes. “Such dams also help to control the floodwaters that can do such grievous damage to downstream communities.” If only the World Bank would get on board:

The deadly flooding in the Grand Canyon illustrated a paradox: A massive deluge can be caused by an area being too dry. “The Colorado River that runs through the natural wonder has lost 20% of its flow during a generation-long drought,” writes Mark Gongloff. “But the rain it received on Saturday was far too much to handle, falling at more than an inch per hour at one point and ultimately delivering a month’s worth of rain in a day, Bloomberg News reported. It hit pitched, dehydrated ground, including some recently scarred by wildfire, funneling the water quickly into dangerous areas.”

While warm winters and dwindling rivers are huge factors in the drying-out of the American West, Mark is on to a less obvious suspect: cows. “Sustaining communities of millions of thirsty people in a desert is challenging enough. Adding millions more cows, or at least growing the water-intensive food those cows eat, ramps up the difficulty level exponentially. America’s arid Southwest is learning it can’t comfortably have both,” he writes. “The bulk of the Colorado River isn’t piped to houses. It’s claimed, in the form of food, by those cows. Irrigation for alfalfa and other kinds of hay grown to feed cattle takes up 32% of the river’s water spent on human endeavors every year.”

Also thirsty: data centers, which can need massive amounts of water to cool their hot servers. That’s leading to backlash even in less arid parts of the nation. “Public opposition to data center construction now runs higher than opposition to nuclear power plants, writes Gautam Mukunda. How would he turn things around? “An effective regulatory body, real protection for children, and communities that get more from data centers than 50 jobs in exchange for tax breaks would be a good start. Otherwise, the rebellion that’s beginning with data centers won’t end there.”

“For all the hype, AI still carries a stigma. I’ve been tracking the mounting backlash for a while, but communities now greet new data center proposals with pitchforks out,” adds Catherine Thorbecke. “It has become deeply uncool to admit that you used computer systems to help you with your art, not to mention that it will be judged more harshly. And trust in Big Tech leaders, often for valid reasons, is abysmal.”

Valid reasons for distrust? Look no further than John Ternus and “Lake America.”

Bonus Drowning Reading:

  • The Panama Canal’s Real Challenge Is Water, Not Geopolitics: Juan Pablo Spinetto
  • Hegseth Has Turned the Army Into a Rudderless Ship: James Stavridis
  • Food Insecurity Is Coming for Your Lunch: Lara Williams

What’s the World Got in Store?

  • Republican midterm convention, Sept. 9: The Texas Senate Race Is Becoming a Debt Debacle — Abby McCloskey
  • US PPI, Sept. 10: The Fight Over Food Prices Won’t End Soon — Mary Ellen Klas
  • ECB rate decision, Sept. 10: Germany’s Notary Marathons Are Making Entrepreneurs Despair — Chris Bryant

Bad Boys

Speaking of untrustworthy tech titans, how about ex-Microsoft CEO, Los Angeles Clippers owner and horrible dancer Steve Ballmer. Thanks to his franchise’s unbelievably complicated yet failed efforts to circumvent the NBA’s salary cap (it involved tree-planting fraud!!), Ballmer was suspended for a year, the Clippers were stripped of five first-round draft picks and fined $30 million, while star forward Kawhi Leonard has to shell out $700,000. For Leonard, that’s about 1.4% of his annual salary. For Ballmer, the team’s fine is 0.02% of his $145 billion net worth. So who is really getting punished here?

“Ballmer can serve his suspension; Leonard can pay his fine. But the fans, commercial partners and other players will be stuck with a weaker team long after the people responsible have served their penalties and moved on,” writes Adam Minter. Leonard seems to be moving on to Toronto, a city now located on the shore of Lake America in the future 51st state of the US.

“This season will be the second of an 11-year, $75 billion-plus media deal that’s supposed to deliver star power and competitive games to media partners and fans. Yet with this penalty, the league has purposely kneecapped one of its two Los Angeles franchises for years,” adds Adam. “From a business perspective, that’s madness.” 

From a business perspective, so is Lake America.

Bonus Ballmer Reading: Four more ways to get around the NBA salary cap and eventually get caught and lose five first-round picks. — Matt Levine

Note: Please send poutine and feedback to Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net.

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[1] Sorry, Brooklyn Kool Kidz: You’re Long Islanders! You might as well move to Massapequa.

[2] How did they put a 3-D movie on VHS?? I'm pretty sure we will find a VHS player down there to help us solve the mystery.

[3] The hero of this story is MapQuest, a site that I thought disappeared with Sharkboy and Lavagirl, but which hit the top spot on the App Store for refusing to abide by Trump's latest geographical whim, just as it has on Gulf of Mexico.

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