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Monday, May 4, 2026
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Caucasus contest
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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. Armenia has stood at the crossroads of rival empires practically since the Bible records that Noah’s Ark landed on Mount Ararat, which soars above its modern capital, Yerevan. Dozens of European leaders are in the city today as the latest geopolitical struggle takes shape. They’re vying for influence in the Caucasus region that offers a vital trade corridor between Europe and China bypassing Russia, and access to Central Asia’s vast energy and mineral wealth. 
Hot air balloons over Yerevan, with Mount Ararat in the distance.
Photographer: Karen Minasyan/AFP/Getty Images
The turmoil caused by the war in Iran is only increasing the region’s significance. Donald Trump is planting the US flag with a joint project with Armenia, giving it rights for up to 99 years to manage a transport corridor linking neighboring Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan. The deal extends to oil and gas pipelines and digital infrastructure. Turkey and Iran are also asserting their interests in a neighborhood historically dominated by Russia. Vladimir Putin isn’t taking the competition lightly. He reminded Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan at Kremlin talks recently about his dependence on cheap Russian gas. Armenia also hosts Russia’s only military base in the region. Parliamentary elections in Armenia next month may give Russia more opportunities to expand its influence. 
Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Moldova’s Maia Sandu are among leaders joining the European Political Community meeting in Yerevan, underscoring Europe’s security concerns in the face of Russian aggression and growing US detachment. NATO chief Mark Rutte is also there, as is Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, the first non-European leader to attend. Tomorrow, the European Union holds its first summit with Armenia, which wants to join the bloc even as it’s currently part of a Moscow-led customs union. Putin has warned Pashinyan he can’t be in both. The summitry may be short-lived. But the contest for the Caucasus will play out for years. — Anthony Halpin Global Must ReadsA Ukrainian drone hit a residential tower in an upscale district of Moscow, a rare strike near the Russian capital’s center that comes just ahead of the traditional World War II Victory Day parade on May 9. Ukraine said yesterday that it damaged Russia’s Primorsk port on the Baltic Sea, a key oil-export hub, in a drone barrage that also targeted several vessels. 
A damaged apartment building in Moscow after a Ukrainian drone attack today.
Source: AP Photo
Trump said he plans to cut the US military presence in Germany by more than the 5,000-troop drawdown announced so far, even as Republican allies and NATO countries question the move. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said the alliance risks disintegrating and called on all members to reverse “this disastrous trend.” Meanwhile, Germany’s military is seeking help from the private sector to build up its defense capabilities, but the infrastructure hurdles are significant. China ordered its companies to ignore US sanctions, an unprecedented act of defiance that threatens to trap a vast banking sector in the crossfire as tension rises between the world’s largest economies. Beijing has often railed against unilateral sanctions and pronounced them illegitimate, but until now it has also quietly allowed its largest companies to comply with them, in order to avoid blowback on its own economy and to preserve access to the US financial system. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is visiting Australia to strengthen ties with one of her country’s strongest allies as she seeks to build on an updated regional strategy that faces challenges from both China and the US. In Vietnam at the weekend, she delivered a landmark speech to convey her vision for deepening Japan’s economic and security ties with the Indo-Pacific, with a view to making it more resilient in the face of geopolitical challenges. 
Takaichi at Haneda airport on Friday as she departed for her trip to Vietnam and Australia.
Photographer: Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images
Colombians face a hard, familiar choice in this month’s presidential election: negotiate with violent cocaine gangs, or go back to war against them. Senator Paloma Valencia has emerged as one of the most prominent voices demanding an end to talks pushed by President Gustavo Petro and calling for Trump’s help to battle armed groups — an approach that has gained favor elsewhere in the region. Trump said the US will help ships stranded in the Persian Gulf transit the Strait of Hormuz, describing it as a “humanitarian gesture” and testing his ability to restore traffic through the strategic waterway. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s party appears on course to secure its first-ever election victory in the state of West Bengal, expanding its support base across India. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Rome this week, sources say, amid a rumbling spat between the administration and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani has been hospitalized in Florida and is in critical condition, according to Trump. Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day
Local elections in the UK on May 7 are expected to lay bare how the traditional two-party system that has dominated British politics since World War II has broken down. Polls suggest the ruling Labour Party and the main opposition Conservatives are each set to cede hundreds of council seats. While the results are often down to local factors, these elections also tend to highlight national mood swings, meaning pollsters will be watching for clues about which party has most momentum. And FinallyA mining giant since the colonial era, Bolivia is now looking to develop its lithium industry to lure the dollars the crumbling economy urgently needs. But that’s a long-term project, and so for now President Rodrigo Paz’s new government is hoping the country’s diverse geography, rich history and cultural depth can make it a tourist destination. Sites range from snow-capped mountains to biodiverse rainforests, scattered with Inca settlements, Jesuit mission towns and a city once known as a global silver capital that’s still home to an active 500-year-old mine. 
The Salar de Uyuni — a massive salt flat in Bolivia that holds one of the world’s biggest lithium deposits.
Photographer: Marcelo Perez del Carpio/Bloomberg
Thanks to everyone who answered Friday’s quiz question, and congratulations to Katelyn Sinatra, who was first to identify Cairo as the capital where people are celebrating the easing of restrictions on energy use that curtailed nightlife. More from Bloomberg
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