Next Africa: No hugs

Conflict between Congo, Rwanda appears as intractable as ever ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

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Welcome to Next Africa, a daily newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email. In today’s edition, we look at how Rwanda-backed rebels are consolidating their hold on eastern Congo. And: The US temporarily lifts duties on some fertilizer from Morocco South African President Ramaphosa shuffles his cabinet The World Bank approves loans to Kenya and Nigeria An Intractable Conflict US President Donald Trump declared late last year that the leaders of Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo would soon be hugging and holding hands instead of fighting over control of Congo’s mineral-rich east. But seven months after the two nations signed a peace deal in Washington, their conflict appears as intractable as ever. As many as 18,000 Rwandan troops are now supporting around 30,000 M23 rebels on the ground in eastern Congo, helping consolidate their hold on the region, a new report released by a United Nations group of experts shows. It outlines how they’ve set up a parallel government, taken over public utilities and even established a new banking service and an insurance agency. M23 rebels in Bukavu, Congo. Photographer: Hugh Kinsella Cunningham/Getty Images When they’re not fighting, the soldiers and rebels are delivering smuggled tin, tantalum and tungsten from mines to Rwandan traders, the experts say. The US has slapped sanctions on Rwanda’s leaders, its army and several of the country’s companies since the start of the year. Kigali is unrepentant, saying it’s protecting itself from widely prevalent insecurity in Congo and it needs to deter a militant group known as the FDLR that’s linked to the perpetrators of the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Congo’s army has done itself no favors in that regard. It’s still working with the FDLR to combat the M23, a direct violation of the US-brokered peace accord, according to the UN experts. The ongoing standoff is bringing even more misery to a region where millions have been displaced and 60% of the population is living in extreme poverty. And with both sides now deploying armed drones, more civilian lives are being placed at risk. So much for the hugs. — Michael J. Kavanagh What Everyone’s Reading  The US will temporarily lift duties on phosphate fertilizer from Morocco to aid struggling farmers and ease consumer fears over accelerating food inflation. Fertilizer prices skyrocketed as American and Israeli attacks on Iran disrupted shipments of farming inputs through the Strait of Hormuz, spurring nations to safeguard supplies. Vessels anchored off Port Sultan Qaboos, south of the Strait of Hormuz, on June 20. Source: Getty Images Three people exposed to the Ebola outbreak in Congo have been traced to the Haut-Uele province bordering South Sudan, increasing the risk the virus could spill into one of the world’s most fragile states. The expansion underscores concern about the spread of the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, which has no approved vaccine or specific treatment. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa shuffled his cabinet after the Democratic Alliance, the second-biggest party in the governing coalition, requested changes. Willie Aucamp, previously the forestry and environment minister, was given the key agriculture portfolio. The moves follow the election of Geordin Hill-Lewis as DA leader. Separately, central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago warned that interest rates may have to rise again this month. Kganyago talks with Bloomberg TV’s Francine Lacqua in Sintra, Portugal. The World Bank approved a long-awaited $750 million loan to Kenya to support reforms aimed at enhancing good governance and improving public-finance management. The Washington-based lender will also help the East African nation issue a $500 million sustainability linked loan to help fund reforestation and improve energy access. The bank separately approved $1.25 billion in development financing for Nigeria. UK actor Idris Elba and Google will fund AI tools for African creators to help them produce high-quality content faster and more cheaply. The actor’s foundation and the company will pay for access to the tech firm’s flagship Gemini AI assistant and other digital products for about 100,000 creators in Nigeria, South Africa, Ghana, Kenya and Sierra Leone. Elba in Davos in 2023. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg From tycoons to students, Nigerians are scrambling to be part of billionaire Aliko Dangote’s $40 billion IPO of his refinery business. Can the once-in-a-generation listing transform African markets? Click here to listen to our Q&A from earlier on Wednesday. Goldman Sees South Africa Rate Hike as Inflation Expectations Rise Economists at Goldman Sachs and Oxford Economics expect policymakers to hike interest rates next month after inflation expectations rose above the central bank’s 3% target. South African Court Drops Credit Suisse From Rand-Fixing Suit South Africa’s Constitutional Court dismissed Credit Suisse from a suit alleging that the Swiss bank and others had manipulated the rand-dollar exchange rate for six years through at least September 2013. Quote of the Week “They were chasing us. They don’t want to see us.” Nadia Nyamayaro A cleaner from Zimbabwe. She was relating how she was driven away from her home near Cape Town during anti-migrant protests. Last Word Amazon.com said it will buy just less than half of the carbon credits generated from a project to restore degraded land in South Africa by planting thickets of Spekboom, a plant that traps carbon dioxide and helps soil retain water. The company plans to sell the credits on to its own business units, suppliers and other parties to help them offset their emissions. The restoration project on the Botterblom farm in South Africa’s Eastern Cape province. Source: The Project Nursery We’ll be back in your inbox with the next edition tomorrow. Send any feedback to mcohen21@bloomberg.net. More From Bloomberg Enjoying Next Africa? You might also like: Businessweek Daily for fresh perspectives on business, economics, politics and tech Markets Daily for what’s moving in stocks, bonds, FX and commodities Balance of Power for the latest political news and analysis from around the globe Bloomberg Money for insights, ideas and tools for doing more with your money. 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Two weeks ago, the U.S. and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz... As a result, oil prices fell and energy stocks sold off. Investors who had bought in during the Iran war started to shift their money out.

The Energy Trade Isn't Over – It's Just Changing By John Evelius, junior analyst, Chaikin Analytics Two weeks ago, the U.S. and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz... As a result, oil prices fell and energy stocks sold off. Investors who had bought in during the Iran war started to shift their money out.  To all appearances, the energy trade was over. But while investors were rotating out, something else was already in motion... On June 16, drones hit the Gazprom Neft refinery in Moscow – the main fuel source for the entire Moscow region. A unit that handles 53% of the plant's output took a direct hit and shut down. Two days later, several drones hit the same refinery again. Typically, Russia has a surplus of diesel and will export around 40% of its supply. In fact, last year, Russia supplied about 11% of the world's diesel. But Ukraine is increasingly targeting Russian energy hubs. These refineries produce around 25% of Russia's diesel output. With lines at Russian gas stations growing longer, the government is getting ready to step in... On June 23, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak met with President Vladimir Putin. They talked about imposing a complete ban on diesel exports. A full export ban would not stop in Eastern Europe... It would hit Africa and parts of Asia that still buy Russian fuel. Then it would push up global diesel prices. This is the energy story the Hormuz rally buried. Yes, crude prices fell when the strait reopened. But diesel is a separate market.  And there is at least one company set up to gain from tighter diesel supply... Recommended Links: Elon Musk Warns We May Have Just Six Months Left "Frontier AI" is a point of no return when AI surpasses human intelligence and gains free will. Elon Musk warns this moment could hit by the end of 2026. According to 60-year Wall Street legend Marc Chaikin, frontier AI could soon become the only thing that determines which companies make money and which ones grind to a halt. That's why he's giving away a list of stocks to buy and sell absolutely FREE to help you position your money for a world driven by frontier-AI technology. Get Marc's Frontier AI Hotlist right here. Will You Survive 'Project Hamilton'? On July 4, a radical White House move could trigger the biggest shock to our financial markets since 1971... when Richard Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. As described, "Project Hamilton" would unleash a butterfly effect of surges and crashes across the market – and it would be announced to coincide with America's 250th anniversary. Dan Ferris is urging anyone with savings in U.S. dollars to make one specific move immediately... He says it could potentially 10X your money from here. Click here now to get up to speed. Where the Opportunity Hides Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is the largest oil refiner in the U.S. To be clear, the company doesn't drill for crude. It buys crude, refines it, and sells the fuel.  When diesel supply gets tight and prices rise, Marathon earns more on every barrel it sells. Margin gains like this can add up quickly. We can see this in Marathon's first-quarter earnings earlier this year...  Earnings per share came in at $1.65 – more than twice what Wall Street had forecast. Refining margins grew 33% year over year to $17.74 per barrel. Net income flipped from a $74 million loss to a $511 million gain.  That was just from the first quarter of this year... before the Russian diesel story took hold. For the current quarter, Wall Street now projects a massive jump in Marathon's earnings per share to around $12. This is up roughly 206% from a year ago. Right now, Marathon's stock is sitting around $256. Analysts project that it could jump as much as 35% in the next year. The Power Gauge gives Marathon a "very bullish" rating. Take a look at its checklist... As you might expect from the recent strong earnings, Marathon earns a perfect 3 out of 3 on the strength checklist. And while our system sees a bit of weakness in timing right now, even that is starting to look up again.  Year to date, MPC is up about 55%. This crushes the S&P 500 Index's roughly 9% gain over the same period. The Iranian deal calmed the market. But diesel doesn't come from just one place. Russia is the world's second-largest diesel exporter. Right now, at least a quarter of its oil plants are off line. And a complete export ban is on the table.  Many investors are moving away from energy... But the Power Gauge still sees an opportunity in this sector. Good investing, John Evelius Market View Major Indexes and Notable Sectors     # Hld:     Bullish     Neutral       Bearish Dow 30 +0.14% 7 17 6 S&P 500 +0.78% 120 294 85 NASDAQ +1.70% 21 54 26 Small Caps +0.50% 648 966 237 Bonds -1.18%   Information Technology +2.76% 32 36 4 — According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks are Bullish. Major indexes are mixed. *  *  *  * Sector Tracker Sector movement over the last 5 days Health Care +4.26% Industrials +3.97% Information Technology +3.44% Discretionary +3.09% Utilities +0.60% Materials -0.08% Communication -0.13% Financial -0.50% Staples -0.78% Real Estate -1.37% Energy -2.48% *  *  *  * Industry Focus Regional Banking 100 46 0 Over the past 6 months, the Regional Banking subsector (KRE) has outperformed the S&P 500 by 5.68%. Its Power Bar ratio which measures future potential is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #1 of 21 subsectors. Top Stocks AMAL Amalgamated Financial Corp. ASB Associated Banc-Corp AUB Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation *  *  *  * Top Movers Gainers SNDK +10.89% AXON +9.79% VRT +9.07% KLAC +8.38% APD +8.04% Losers DLR -5.77% HRL -5.66% ZBH -5.64% MOS -5.57% T -5.13% *  *  *  * Earnings report Earnings Surprises NKE NIKE, Inc. Q4 $0.20 Beat by $0.07 STZ Constellation Brands, Inc. Q1 $3.43 Beat by $0.23 *  *  *  * You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to PowerFeed. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from PowerFeed, click here. You're receiving this e-mail at reunisoft.cryptonews@blogger.com. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call +1 (877) 697-6783 (U.S.), 9 a.m. - 5 p.m. Eastern time or e-mail info@chaikinanalytics.com. Please note: The law prohibits us from giving personalized financial advice. © 2026 Chaikin Analytics, LLC. All rights reserved. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution, in whole or in part, is prohibited without written permission from Chaikin Analytics, LLC. 201 King Of Prussia Rd., Suite 650, Radnor, PA 19087. www.chaikinanalytics.com. Any brokers mentioned constitute a partial list of available brokers and is for your information only. Chaikin Analytics, LLC, does not recommend or endorse any brokers, dealers, or investment advisors. Chaikin Analytics forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Chaikin Analytics, LLC (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation. This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.