Starlink Is So Dominant, Europe Is Paying Musk and Funding His RivalsVIEW IN BROWSER | FOLLOW LUKE ON š¯•¸ 
Britain has spent nearly $40 million on Elon Musk’s satellite network. Across the Channel, the European Union is preparing to spend €15.7 billion so it can rely on that network less. Britain is buying access today; the EU is buying insurance for tomorrow. Put those two decisions together, and a Starlink paradox comes into view. Musk’s network has become so useful that governments are willing to pay for it now. It has also become so strategically important that those same governments are willing to spend billions building alternatives. Musk gets the customer. His lead creates the competitor. The supply chain wins either way. Why Britain Is Deepening Its Reliance on StarlinkBritain started using Starlink back in 2022. Since then, it has moved live military communications onto Starshield – becoming the first country outside the U.S. to do so publicly. Its Ministry of Defence now operates roughly 1,000 Starshield terminals and another 500 Starlink terminals. The two services run across the same satellite network. Starshield adds military-specific contracts, stronger encryption, higher network priority, expanded coverage, and dedicated ground gateways. Those upgrades cost more. Britain pays up because the service is available now. The country already operates its own Skynet military satellite network. It also owns a stake in European satellite operator Eutelsat. Yet its defense ministry still bought more than 1,000 Starshield terminals – because governments can't always wait for the perfect homegrown solution. Command centers need reliable communications at all times. When a proven network is already in orbit, it can easily become the default. Not to mention, Britain is building procedures around Starshield. Personnel are learning the equipment. Military units are integrating it into operations. Those habits create a deeper relationship than a one-time hardware purchase. The longer the sovereign alternatives take, the more embedded SpaceX can become. IRIS²’s Multiyear Deployment Gap Is Starlink’s MoatMeanwhile, Europe is now moving IRIS² – its planned 348-satellite sovereign communications network – from policy into deployment. The system will include 330 satellites in low Earth orbit and 18 in medium Earth orbit, with the first launches expected in 2029 and service rolling out between 2030 and 2032. This fleet will be far smaller than Starlink’s 10,000 active satellites. But what it lacks in size, it makes up for in control: a network European governments can use on their own terms in a crisis. The bigger issue is timing. Every delay gives Starlink more time to improve coverage, lower hardware costs, sign government contracts, and deepen its lead. Europe is building against a moving target. By the time IRIS² enters service, SpaceX will have launched more satellites, expanded direct-to-phone service, upgraded its terminals, and added more military customers. That does not make Europe’s project pointless. It makes it expensive. Catching a platform with a multiyear head start usually is. Starlink’s Dominance Is Creating a Second Satellite Spending CycleStarlink’s success is now pushing money in two directions. The first stream flows directly to SpaceX. Britain has spent nearly $40 million on Starlink and Starshield, including about $17.6 million on Starshield terminals and airtime. In the United States, SpaceX says multiyear government awards for Starshield now exceed $6 billion, largely through two major Space Force programs. The second stream flows into alternatives. Ukraine turned Europe’s dependence into a battlefield reality. Starlink became central to military communications, and no European network was ready to replace it. Leaders now want secure satellite capacity they can control themselves. That desire has survived political fights, cost increases, and years of delay. IRIS² was estimated to cost €10.6 billion in late 2024. The projected bill has since risen to €15.7 billion, with public money expected to cover nearly two-thirds. Even so, 22 European countries recently pledged to keep accelerating the project. That is a remarkable response to one private company’s lead. Usually, competition is supposed to divide an existing market. Starlink is helping create another one. Once satellite communications become national infrastructure, building some duplicate capacity starts to look less wasteful. Governments will pay for resilience, control, and guaranteed access even when a cheaper commercial service already exists. Europe does not need IRIS² to win every broadband customer. It needs the ability to stay connected if access to a foreign network ever becomes uncertain. That political goal can support spending even when the commercial returns alone look less compelling. And now that spending is moving from government plans into actual orders.
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IRIS² Is Turning Billions in Policy Into Satellite OrdersOn Sept. 10, Belgian satellite manufacturer Aerospacelab announced a €2.4 billion contract to build 264 of the 348 satellites planned for IRIS². That gives one company responsibility for roughly 76% of the constellation and represents the largest disclosed manufacturing allocation in the program so far. The rest of the work is spreading across Europe’s space industry. Airbus is expected to assemble 66 satellites dedicated to sensitive government communications. Thales Alenia Space will provide payloads. Germany’s OHB will supply the medium-Earth-orbit satellites. Eutelsat, SES, and Hispasat will help operate the network through the SpaceRISE consortium. This is where the Starlink paradox becomes investable. These satellites need communications payloads, antennas, solar arrays, batteries, radiation-tolerant electronics, optical links, cybersecurity, ground stations, testing equipment, and launch capacity. Then, of course, they’ll need maintenance, upgrades, and replacements long beyond the first deployment. Europe’s Starlink response is creating a second supply chain. Europe’s Next Starlink Fight Is Direct-to-Device Satellite ServiceThese ambitions extend beyond just military and government communications. At the recent Paris space summit, French President Emmanuel Macron called on Europe’s telecom operators, satellite companies, and manufacturers to form a direct-to-device alliance. The goal is to launch a European service by 2030. Direct-to-device technology allows an ordinary smartphone to connect with a satellite when no cell tower is available – and expands the competition into the consumer market. Starlink already has roughly 640 satellites dedicated to the technology and claims more than 10 million users across its broader network. Europe’s largest telecom companies – including Orange, Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, and TelefĆ³nica – have reportedly discussed forming a consortium to bid for spectrum and build a regional alternative. The same pattern is repeating:
- Starlink establishes a working service.
- Customers adopt it.
- Governments decide the capability is too important to leave in foreign hands.
- More capital enters the market.
The direct-to-device race will require another wave of satellites, spectrum, antennas, radio-frequency chips, ground equipment, and carrier integrations. It also brings terrestrial telecom companies into a market that once belonged mostly to rocket and satellite specialists. Musk’s lead is pulling more industries into orbit. How the Satellite Supply Chain Can Win on Both Sides of StarlinkStarlink and IRIS² are headed toward different missions. Starlink is already serving consumers, businesses, and governments. IRIS² is Europe’s attempt to build secure communications capacity it can control when commercial networks are no longer enough. The constellations will not rely on identical suppliers. But both require the same broad industrial base: satellites, secure payloads, radiation-hardened electronics, power systems, ground infrastructure, software, launch services, and replacement hardware as the networks expand and age. That is where I start looking whenever Musk commits to a project at enormous scale. What will he need to buy – and which companies will benefit from supplying it? The answer has generated some of the most compelling ideas of my career. Thirty-three recommendations I’ve made connected to Musk’s businesses went on to double or better at their highs. A handful produced gains measured in the thousands of percent. Of course, I’ve gotten plenty of calls wrong, too. Every investor does. But Musk’s biggest projects have repeatedly pointed us toward suppliers before the full demand story reached Wall Street. Starlink makes that dynamic even more interesting. SpaceX earns revenue when governments adopt Starshield. Europe’s effort to build a sovereign alternative creates a second wave of demand across the satellite industry. Some companies may sell directly to SpaceX. Others may supply the networks designed to reduce Europe’s dependence on it. A few may end up selling to both sides. I have spent months tracing those dependencies across SpaceX, Tesla, SpaceXAI, and the rest of Musk’s empire. I put that research on screen in my latest presentation, alongside Louis Navellier and Eric Fry. We trace Musk’s spending across his empire, isolate the capabilities he still has to buy, and show which outside companies we believe could benefit. Starlink is winning contracts today and forcing a second buildout for tomorrow. Discover which companies could profit from the spending on both sides right here. Sincerely, |
