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Friday, March 27, 2026

You are buying puts because the market is falling. The math says you need to be right 75% of the time just to break even.

Every time a market like this starts rolling over, I get the same question.

Why not just buy puts?

Markets are falling. Puts make money when stocks go down. Seems obvious. It is not.

When implied volatility is sitting at 50 to 60 percent, the premium you pay for any option is enormous.

Implied volatility is the options market's measure of expected movement. High IV means the market is pricing in big moves. That premium gets baked into every option you buy and works against you from the moment the trade is placed.

Here is the number that changes everything. At 60% implied volatility, if you buy a naked put or call, you have to be right on direction between 65 and 75 percent of the time just to break even.

Not to make money. To break even.

A naked option means buying a single put or call with no other position to offset it. Full premium. Full volatility drag. Full exposure to being right on direction and still losing.

Here is what that looks like. You see a stock rolling over. You buy the put.

The stock drops exactly as you predicted. You are right on direction. And you still lose money because the volatility crushed the premium out of your position faster than the stock moved.

This is happening to traders every single session in this market.

The fix is a spread. A vertical spread means you buy one option and sell another at a different strike.

The sold option offsets the cost of the bought option and, more importantly, it offsets the volatility drag. Instead of fighting 60% implied volatility, you are collecting part of it.

Broadcom was sitting at a level the expected move identified before the session started. I built a Superfly butterfly around that level overnight.

A Superfly butterfly is a three-leg zero DTE options structure.

Zero DTE means the options expire the same day. Except I trade them in the traditional sense.

You buy one option at a higher strike, sell two at the center strike, and buy one at a lower strike. The trade pays maximum when price lands near that center strike at expiration.

The overnight move did exactly what the expected move said it would. I closed the trade for 260%.

Not because I predicted Broadcom. Because the structure matched the conditions and the vol was working for me instead of against me.

This is the distinction that matters. Naked options fight the volatility. Spreads use it.

The traders getting destroyed right now are paying full premium in names running 50 to 60% implied volatility. They are right on direction half the time and still losing money.

Check the implied volatility before you place any trade. If it is above 40%, a naked option is working against you from the moment you buy it.

You do not need to stop trading. You need to stop buying naked options.

To your success,

Don Kaufman

P.S. The next time you want to buy a put in this market, pull up the implied volatility first. If it is above 40%, sell a lower strike against it. That one move changes which side of the math you are on. There's a better way to trade, it's called Superfly.

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A More Profitable Alternative to the Fog of War

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BY KEITH KAPLAN
CEO, TRADESMITH

On the morning of Oct. 14, 1806, a 26-year-old Prussian officer named Carl von Clausewitz rode toward battle against Napoleon’s army.

He had every reason to expect a Prussian victory. Prussia was Europe’s premier military power, undefeated for half a century.

What he and his fellow officers didn’t understand was that Napoleon had reinvented the rules of warfare.

Napoleon didn’t move his whole army down one road. Instead, he split his forces into six independent corps spread across a 38-mile line. Each was large enough to fight on its own, and each moved along a separate route.

Prussia assumed one front. Napoleon gave them six.

The French hit the Prussian line from the front, flanks, and rear at once. Before the Prussian commanders realized they were surrounded, it was too late. Twenty-five thousand soldiers, Clausewitz among them, were prisoners of the French by that afternoon.

He spent the next two decades trying to understand what had happened. His conclusion: In war, you never have the full picture. Instead, you’re “wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty.”

Today, investors are trying to peer through that fog to understand what to do with their money.

And I get that. The war with Iran has pushed the price of oil above $100. This is having knock-on effects across the economy… and the markets.

But here at TradeSmith, we take a different approach. Instead of obsessing over headlines, we look at what the market is telling us, through the lens of data.

And right now, it’s sending a message you need to hear. Key parts of this market have shifted from bullish to bearish – and most investors haven’t caught up yet.

But it’s not all bad news. As our proprietary AI trading model is showing, there are pockets of opportunity for short-term traders.

First, let’s check our Short-Term Health indicator… and the warning it’s sending.

Recommended Link

12 Out of 13 CFOs Are Quietly Dumping Their Own Stock.

Insider selling is now at its fastest pace ever recorded. Former $200 million money manager Jeff Clark and data analyst Andy Swan… whose research Fortune 500 companies pay up to $750,000 a year to access… reveal where the money is fleeing to and why this could be the next 1,000% opportunity. Get the full story here.

These Four Indexes Are in Red Zones

Like our flagship Long-Term Health indicator, Short-Term Health alerts you before stocks take a big dive. Only it’s tuned to shorter timeframes.

Here’s what I’m seeing now.

You’re looking at the Short-Term (on the left) and Long-Term (on the right) Health of major market indexes in the U.S. and overseas.

Of the U.S. indexes, the S&P 500, the Dow, and the tech-filled Nasdaq 100, have all triggered “flash sell” alerts. So has the Russell 1000. It tracks 1,000 of the largest publicly traded companies, representing roughly 93% of the U.S. stock market.

That’s not a reason to sell your long-term holdings – that’s what our Long-Term Health stops are for. Instead, it’s telling us that bullish momentum has broken down and has been replaced by bearish momentum.

But these indexes have also entered Long-Term Health Yellow Zones. That’s a sign that longer-term momentum is also starting to break down. And another reason to be cautious.

Is Our “Year of the Bear” Warning Coming True?

I began warning of a bearish 2026 late last year. I hope you paid attention.

In my Dec. 12 Daily, I called it the “bear market nobody is preparing for.”

And for the first time since becoming CEO of TradeSmith, I urged you to follow our Short-Term rather than Long-Term stops to keep you safe from the “volatility shocks, fast trend breaks, and tipping-point conditions” that I saw coming.

We’re not in a bear market yet. It’s defined as a 20% drop or more from a peak. But the Nasdaq 100 is now in a correction – a 10% drop from a peak.

So if you’re a TradeSmith subscriber with access to our Short-Term Health tool, make sure to use it. And keep an eye on those Long-Term Health stops, too.

If the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 enter Long-Term Health Red Zones, that’s a signal to reduce exposure – or exit entirely – and wait for a new Green Zone entry.

But it’s not all about protecting your downside risk. Another way to navigate this choppy market is to trade short-term moves. And that’s where our AI-powered trading model comes in.

What Predictive Alpha Is Seeing Now

Predictive Alpha is TradeSmith’s AI-powered forecasting tool. It analyzes historical patterns in more than 2,300 stocks and projects where each one is likely to trade over the next 21 trading days.

It also tells you how accurate that same pattern has been historically – so you know which forecasts to take seriously and which to treat as background noise.

Right now, the stocks it’s most bullish on fall into three distinct buckets.

1. Energy and Commodities

Equinor (EQNR) is a Norwegian oil-and-gas giant with significant liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity – the kind of company that benefits when Middle East supply gets disrupted and buyers scramble for alternatives.

ConocoPhillips (COP) is one of the largest independent oil producers in the world, with low-cost production assets spread across the U.S., Canada, and Norway.

These aren’t speculative bets. They’re companies that make more money when oil prices rise – and oil prices have been rising big time lately.

Adecoagro (AGRO) is the outlier here, but it fits the theme. It’s a South American agricultural company that produces food, ethanol, and sugar. When fertilizer costs spike and supply chains get squeezed, agricultural producers with their own land and low input costs tend to hold up better than most.

2. Clean Energy

Bloom Energy (BE) makes fuel cells – compact, power-generating units that convert natural gas directly into electricity, without burning it. Think of them as a cleaner, faster alternative to plugging into the power grid.

And the company has seen a surge in demand from AI data centers, with a 2.5x increase in product backlog over the past year.

Its fuel cells can be deployed in as little as 55 days – far faster than traditional utility substations can scale. In a world where AI data centers need power urgently, not eventually, that speed advantage is worth real money.

Enlight Renewable Energy (ENLT) is a global renewable energy developer with a heavy footprint in solar, wind, and energy storage. This is another obvious place for money to flow with fossil fuel supplies snagged up in the Persian Gulf.

3. Biotech

In January, I wrote to you about the opportunity in biotech. The Short-Term Health signals were just starting to turn. Since then, the sector has continued to strengthen – and Predictive Alpha is now flagging several names.

Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR), Erasca (ERAS), and AnaptysBio (ANAB) are all showing up on the bullish list.

These aren’t household names. But they share a common thread. They’re developing targeted therapies where AI is accelerating the drug discovery process – identifying candidates faster and killing off dead ends earlier.

If you’re looking for a way to play the AI megatrend, without buying mega-cap tech stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOGL), put these stocks on your shopping list.

The energy stocks on the list will benefit as the war drags on and energy supplies are trapped in the Gulf.

And biotech firms don’t need oil prices, interest rates, or geopolitics to go their way. When the fog of war is this thick, stocks that run on their own clock look a lot more attractive.

Even better, you don’t have to decipher confusing war news to know they’re a buy. You just have to follow the data.

All the best,

Keith Kaplan signature

Keith Kaplan
CEO, TradeSmith

P.S. I post my thoughts on X every day about bullish signals that are firing on the TradeSmith Finance platform – including more of my favorite energy and biotech stocks. Check out my recent posts about agentic AI, the K-shaped economy, and more.

To catch my latest ideas, make sure to follow me on X @KeithTradeSmith.

Honestly, you’re working too hard for crumbs.

Let’s be real for a second. If you’re still grinding away with "old school" trading, putting up a massive stake just to hunt for a tiny 1% or 2% return, we need to have a talk.

Uncle Roger doesn’t like seeing his community work ten times harder for ten times less.

That’s why I’m handing you a $1,085 IOU today. I want you to stop settling for crumbs and start using the Cash Flow Accelerator inside our Weekly Cash Flow Alerts group. We’re targeting returns 5-10x bigger than the traditional stuff, using the exact same tickers you’re already watching.

Grab your $1,085 IOU and join the crew here.

Here’s the deal:


•		Weekly Setup: At least once a week, I’ll send you the exact play I’m making. Ticker, entry, target…no guessing games.

•		Instant Alerts: I’ll ping your phone via SMS or Telegram so you can actually go live your life instead of staring at a monitor.

•		The Accelerator Blueprint: I’ll show you the specific tweaks I made to hunt for those supercharged payouts.

•		The Double Dip: My favorite "cheat code" for trying to get paid twice on a single move.

The "Family Discount" (Ending Friday)

I originally planned to charge $1,997 for this. But since the Cash Flow Accelerator has shown it can deliver $1,085 more than the "old school" methods I used to use, I’m paying that difference forward. I’m literally subtracting that $1,085 from the price today.


•		Your VIP Price Today: $912

•		The Deadline: Friday at midnight. After Friday, VIP access disappears completely. The price will jump to $1,495 for a standard one-year sub. Uncle Roger would much rather see you get the "front row" VIP treatment for way less than what everyone else will pay this weekend.

We trade both ways, too. If the market decides to face-plant tomorrow, we just use the same strategy to target the downside. It’s twice the opportunity with none of the "old school" stress.

Lock in your $912 VIP spot before Friday midnight.

All the best,

Roger Scott


	ABOUT US: We believe that the opportunity for financial literacy and freedom belongs to all people, not just those who already have years of investing experience. The TradingPub provides an array of educational services and products that will help you navigate the markets and become a better investor. Trading is made simple through our online forum full of trading techniques to give you the best tools to kick-start your investing journey. We offer collaborative webinars and training; we love to teach. No matter the opportunity, we bring together a strong community of like-minded traders to focus on analyzing market news as it’s presented each day. DISCLAIMER: FOR INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. The materials presented from The TradingPub LLC are for your informational purposes only. Neither The TradingPub nor its employees offer investment, legal or tax advice of any kind, and the analysis displayed with various tools does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice and should not be interpreted as such. Using the data and analysis contained in the materials for reasons other than the informational purposes intended is at the user’s own risk. DISCLAIMER: TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK; TRADING INVOLVES RISK OF LOSS; SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. The TradingPUb is not responsible for any losses that may occur from transactions effected based upon information or analysis contained in the presented. To the extent that you make use of the concepts with the presentation material, you are solely responsible for the applicable trading or investment decision. Trading activity, including options transactions, can involve the risk of loss, so use caution when entering any option transaction. You trade at your own risk, and it is recommended you consult with a financial advisor for investment, legal or tax advice relating to options transactions. Please visit https://thetradingpub.com/terms-of-service/ for our full Terms and Conditions. This email was sent to reunisoft.cryptonews@blogger.com by The TradingPub 101 Marketside Ave, Suite 404 PMB 318, Ponta Vedra, FL 32081, United States Unsubscribe The TradingPub Terms of Service - The TradingPub

Rubio asks allies for more Iran help

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For more than a half-century, leaders of industrial countries have periodically gathered to discuss and maintain the international order. A meeting this week just outside Paris has echoes of the first such conclave in 1975. Oliver Crook, Bloomberg Television's chief Europe correspondent, explains how that old order appears to be breaking down. Plus: The co-founder of Spotify has pivoted to full-body scans (free link!) and the Arc'teryx brand appeals to woodsy types and urban CEOs alike.

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Fifty-one years ago, the leaders of six countries—France, Italy, Japan, the UK, the US and West Germany—met at the Château de Rambouillet just outside Paris. The presidents and prime ministers had gathered to address an urgent problem: inflation stemming from efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (or OPEC, an acronym the world would soon become intimately familiar with) to keep oil prices high.

The participants earned the moniker Group of Six, or G-6, and the conclave yielded the so-called Rambouillet Declaration. That document laid out the global order that governed the next half-century: open trade, multilateral cooperation and economic partnership between developed and developing nations. The system lasted until Donald Trump's return to the White House.

This week, foreign ministers of that group, now including Canada and called the G-7, are meeting about 10 miles from Rambouillet, at the Abbaye des Vaux de Cernay, a 10th century monastery that's been turned into a luxury hotel. Topping their agenda: Trump's war in Iran and the ensuing energy shock.

When US Secretary of State Marco Rubio showed up this morning, the G-7 members—joined by Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia and South Korea—pressed him for details on the administration's war aims and what Trump expects from his allies. For the Europeans, the priority was to persuade the US to continue supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression even as Washington is increasingly distracted by the conflict in Iran.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the G7 Foreign Minister's meeting in Cernay-la-Ville, France. March 27, 2026 Photographer: Michel Euler/AP Photo — Rubio at the G-7 foreign minister's meeting on Friday in Cernay-la-Ville, France.

In ordinary times, the G-7 would be the best forum for easing the impact of wars and energy crises. But these aren't ordinary times. After decades of sitting at the head of the table, the US under Trump has disavowed the multilateralism represented by the G-7. In the past year, the administration has withdrawn from groups such as the World Health Organization and skipped various global conclaves attended by longtime allies. Even as the world faces another energy shock and a disintegrating global order, the US seems to be advocating remedies that are 180 degrees removed from what the G-6 first proposed at Rambouillet.

More than a year into Trump's second term, the G-7 is still coming to terms with that shift, and the war in Iran puts US allies in an awkward position. Rubio is in France to rally support for a fight most Europeans see as belonging solely to Trump and Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu. Most people I've spoken with say they might be willing to lend a hand in reopening global shipping, but only after the war ends.

Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand told me, "Canada was not consulted and we didn't participate, have no intention to participate in the offensive action." Kaja Kallas, the EU's top diplomat, cautioned that Russia is sharing intelligence with Iran that endangers US lives. There are discussions about a "day after" coalition for the Persian Gulf, and the French Foreign Ministry said it's "preparing such a mission with all the willing partners. But we have made it very clear that this war is not our war and we don't want to be entangled in it."

Rubio, for his part, says the allies should be more helpful. He didn't talk with reporters after leaving the hotel this afternoon, but on his plane heading to the meeting, he said, "Ukraine is not America's war, and yet we've contributed more to that fight than any other country in the world."

As Rubio headed back to his jet, the other attendees were left wondering about the future of the G-7. Just miles from the birthplace of the order that governed the last half-century, can its utility be revived? Or is it time to quietly bury it?

Latest on the Iran War

US, Israel Hit Iran's Nuclear Facilities as Tehran Attacks Gulf

Live Updates: Germany's Merz Doubts the US and Israel Have a Workable Iran Strategy

Markets Wrap: Tech Stocks Drop as Oil Rises

Watch: The Mishal Husain Show on who will stop the war — Watch: *The Mishal Husain Show* on who will stop the war

Watch Now — Watch: *The Mishal Husain Show* on who will stop the war

In Brief

The Senate passed legislation to fund the Department of Homeland Security, forging a path to end a lengthy partial government shutdown that snarled airport security. Yesterday in the Businessweek Daily: Senators in both parties typically swap unacceptable deals until one finally breaks through.
Bill Gates said he never went to Jeffrey Epstein's island. But over a four-year span, Epstein made a concerted effort to lure him and members of his family to the Caribbean destination, emails show.
Space tourism was envisioned as a multibillion-dollar industry. But it hasn't taken off, and the slump started well before the backlash to Katy Perry's flight.

On the Podcast

America's favorite pastime is back, and so is 2008? This week on the Everybody's Business podcast from Bloomberg Businessweek, hosts Max Chafkin and Stacey Vanek Smith cover the bases on the simultaneous cultural renaissance of baseball and the rise of the trillion-dollar private credit industry. Plus, the debut of a new segment!

Listen and subscribe to Everybody's Business on Apple, Spotify, iHeart and the Bloomberg Terminal.

How Much for Oil?

$200

That's how high the price of a barrel of oil could rise if the Iran war drags on until June, with the Strait of Hormuz staying shut, analysts at Macquarie Group said. Brent crude is on pace for a record monthly gain in March.

Health Scans' Promise—and Drawbacks

Neko Health, Marylebone. Source: Jonas Lindström — Inside Neko's location in Marylebone, London.

It's been 15 years since Spotify co-founder Daniel Ek brought the streaming platform to the US, changing the way Americans discover and consume music. His next project—a startup that offers full-body health scans—will soon arrive stateside with its own ambitious plans to reshape an industry.

Neko Health, founded in 2018 as Ek began planning for life after Spotify Technology SA's initial public offering, operates in Sweden and the UK. If Neko receives regulatory approval in the US, something it's working through now, the company's first American location will open in New York as soon as this spring, with more US clinics planned in the following months, says Chief Executive Officer Hjalmar Nilsonne. In the UK, the company's full-body health scans—which use a combination of imaging and other tests, including a blood test, to check for conditions such as skin cancer, heart disease and diabetes risk—cost £299 (about $400); Nilsonne says the price in the US will likely be higher due to greater costs for medical staffing and real estate.

The idea of full body scans has some splashy celebrity endorsements, Sabela Ojea writes. But what do doctors think?: The Startup Selling Full-Body Scans as the Future of Health Care (🎁)

Into the Woods

Stuart Haseldon, CEO of Arc'teryx shown on a trail near his Vancouver office. — Stuart Haselden on a hiking trail near Arc'teryx company headquarters in Vancouver.

Stuart Haselden had hoped to spend his winter weekends backcountry skiing—schlepping up ungroomed inclines before barreling down silent slopes—but Vancouver's snowless season squashed those plans. British Columbia has been dogged by rain, and lots of it. At least the chief executive officer of Arc'teryx knows how to dress for it. Beneath a canopy of old-growth cedar, taking in the endless green of the Coast Mountains—the company's birthplace and a regular product testing ground—Haselden is sheathed in Arc'teryx's $400 Beta rain jacket, $300 Beta pants and $200 Norvan LD 4 GTX trail-running shoes. Raindrops pelt his hood; his Gore-Tex crinkles with each step. He stays dry.

Exceedingly popular among both woodsy backpackers and C-suite executives, Arc'teryx has expanded noticeably since the retailer's Finnish owner, Amer Sports, was acquired by China's Anta Sports Products Ltd. in 2019. Amer also owns Salomon, Wilson and other major brands, yet Arc'teryx remains its "highest margin" asset, the company said in a recent earnings report.

Brent Crane, for our series A Walk With, joins Haselden for a hike: How Arc'teryx's CEO Won Over Chalamet and Chinese Shoppers

1,800% Interest

"There was no way I was getting funding from anyone other than these people. They know you can't get approved anywhere else."

Laura Pelletier

Ottawa resident

Canada has seen a surge in unlicensed lenders targeting vulnerable borrowers since capping interest rates. Trump has proposed a similar move in the US.