This week the Block Hunter Surveillance Console mapped Devon Energy's gamma wall before it hit exactly on earnings, flagged Intel at the 92nd implied volatility percentile ahead of a potential breakdown, identified unusual call activity on IRIN and ARRY going into earnings with significant short interest behind both names, and tracked SPY pinning the 735 call wall into Thursday.
Meta guided free cash flow negative and I'm calling for at least a 10% correction in the Mag Seven.
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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here.
Canada may not want be the 51st US state, but it’s increasingly acting like the 28th state of the European Union — at least in spirit.
Since taking office last year, Prime Minister Mark Carney has made cozying up to Europe a core part of his strategy as he tries to break Canada’s economic and security dependence on the US.
He’s repeatedly described Canada as the “most European of non-European countries,” and is forging closer ties on defense, trade and diplomacy. Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand dropped by an EU foreign ministers’ meeting in Brussels yesterday.
Carney and Defence Minister David McGuinty at the HMC Dockyard in Halifax, Canada, on March 26.
Photographer: Dean Casavechia/Bloomberg
The Canadian leader attended the European Political Community Summit in Armenia last week, and met the German chancellor in Norway in March. The coming weeks will see Carney in France for the Group of Seven, while Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin has also invited him to visit.
Carney is on familiar turf. As Bank of England governor during the 2016 Brexit referendum, he made clear the economic risks of the UK quitting the EU.
A decade on, it was in Europe, at Davos in January, that he unveiled his middle powers strategy of working with like-minded nations to counter coercion by global giants.
Military spending is at the forefront of the burgeoning Canada-Europe relationship. Carney is pouring billions of dollars into defense, and he’s made it an explicit goal to reduce the amount spent on American-made equipment.
Canada is the only non-European country to join the EU’s military procurement program known as SAFE, and European firms are making a hard charge for submarine and fighter-jet contracts.
Yet Canada still has just one land border, and it happens to be with the world’s largest economy — about two-thirds of exports still flow south.
Carney at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan. 20, where he laid out the concept of middle powers working together.
Photographer: Krisztian Bocsi/Bloomberg
Global Must Reads
Donald Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, in Beijing on Thursday for a summit that will be dominated by discussions on trade and the Iran war, the White House said, after the US president issued a warning that the ceasefire in the Gulf was on “life support.” The US stepped up the economic pressure ahead of the meeting by sanctioning a dozen entities and individuals over the sale of Iranian oil to China.
Keir Starmer faces growing pressure to step down as Britain’s prime minister after dozens of members of Parliament, including Cabinet allies, joined calls for him to set out a timetable for his departure. A defiant Starmer nevertheless told a Cabinet meeting today that he intends to stay on, saying that “the country expects us to get on with governing.” UK stocks, the pound and gilts all fell in London trading on the prospect of more political upheaval.
Larry, the Downing Street cat, pauses by the media scrum outside No. 10 today.
Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg
South African President Cyril Ramaphosarejected calls to resign and vowed to challenge a report criticizing his handling of a robbery at his farm in 2020, after the nation’s top court resurrected the scandal. The Constitutional Court on May 8 ruled that lawmakers erred four years ago when they failed to establish an impeachment committee to look into how Ramaphosa dealt with the theft of foreign exchange hidden in a sofa on his game farm.
A top South Korean policymaker said citizens should be paid a “dividend” using taxes on surging artificial-intelligence profits, hinting at government concerns that the advent of AI risks widening the gap between the haves and have-nots. South Korea is home to chipmakers Samsung and Sk Hynix, both major beneficiaries of the AI boom, and has witnessed public calls for industry leaders to share more of the spoils of the global AI infrastructure bonanza.
With a tight-knit group of advisers, Ursula von der Leyen has built a presidential operation that exerts control over every aspect of what goes on inside the European Commission, sidelining almost all but her inner circle. That’s spreading her office thin and means less focus on core economic responsibilities, resulting in a faltering campaign to revive the EU project and causing simmering tensions to boil over.
Von der Leyen in Canberra on March 24.
Photographer: Hilary Wardhaugh/Bloomberg
The EU reached a political agreement to sanction violent settlers in the West Bank, the first time the bloc has been able to get unanimous backing for punitive measures against Israel since the height of the Gaza crisis.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is seeking to reverse his beleaguered government’s fortunes by getting an ambitious reform agenda back on track at a coalition meeting planned for later today.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s former top aide, Andriy Yermak, was accused by anti-graft authorities of money-laundering.
Mexican authorities arrested a cartel leader and seized seven tigers in the latest raid tied to a fuel-theft scandal that roused the nation.
Record-breaking heat and drought have fueled the world’s worst start to a wildfire year yet, as climate change and a developing El Niño threaten to push extreme weather to new heights. Over the first four months of the year, an area almost the size of Alaska was burned, according to satellite estimates from the Global Wildfire Information System — roughly double the seasonal average for this period.
And Finally
Construction work at Ford’s new factory in Marshall, Michigan, is almost done — and it’s a scene to warm Trump’s heart. An iconic US company is poised to cut the ribbon on its first wholly owned domestic greenfield plant in half a century, and bring manufacturing jobs and money to a slice of small-town America that’s been starved of both. The twist is that all this comes with a big assist from China. For its $3 billion BlueOval factory, Ford linked up with CATL, the Chinese battery giant, drawing flak — but the plant got built anyway.
Marshall’s economy is getting a lift from BlueOval, but there’s also been local opposition.
Photographer: Caria Taylor/Bloomberg
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Thank you and congratulations for registering for Jeff’s Urgent Nvidia Warning.
Over the next week, you’ll get Jeff’s entire action plan.
It starts with a three-part video series…
It culminates in an urgent briefing on Thursday, March 12, at 2 p.m. ET. Jeff will unveil the full details of this potentially massive crash, give away the name of a bullish pick, a bearish pick, and more.
Please note: We’re holding the briefing during market hours, so you’ll have a chance to act on Jeff’s picks immediately. The only way to get everything he’s prepared for you is to be in attendance Thursday.
Here’s what to do right now
Write down this website: NvidiaWarning.com. It’s where you’ll go to access everything Jeff’s prepared for you.
Check your email for Jeff’s pre-event video series. In three short videos rolled out over the next few days, Jeff will explain why he says this crash is a sure thing, the areas most at risk, the trigger, and more.
Claim Jeff’s Bulletproof AI Pick FREE: It contains a stock he believes could come through the crash virtually unscathed. Simply register for the March 12 event (it costs nothing), and you’ll automatically receive the pick along with VIP reminder alerts so you don’t miss a moment of the main event. Click here now to secure your free bonus.
Happy Budget Day from Bloomberg’s Melbourne bureau. Tonight, Jim Chalmers hands down the government’s spending plan, with concessions for property investors in the cross-hairs. But what about the yield curve? We have you covered: it could flatten and the premium over US Treasuries ease, according to strategists anticipating restrained spending from Canberra. Catch Chalmers’ pre-budget interview in case you missed it. Elsewhere, IFM Investors has warned plans to develop sustainable aviation fuel may flounder without government support. —Richard Henderson, Australian Finance Reporter
What’s happening now
Treasurer Jim Chalmers is expected to crack down on tax concession for property investors when he hands down his fiscal blueprint at around 7:30 p.m. in Canberra on Tuesday. The budget is expected to show an easing of the cash deficit to around A$25 billion, according to economists, from an official estimate six months earlier of around A$34 billion.
A plan to develop sustainable aviation fuel in Australia may run aground without government support, IFM Investors has warned. The fund manager may scrap a proposed A$3 billion investment to make the fuel unless the government requires airlines to use it, Danny Elia, IFM’s global head of infrastructure asset management, said in an interview.
The extra yield investors reap from Australian government debt relative to its US counterpart may narrow following tonight’s budget. That’s according to investment strategists who are anticipating more restrained fiscal spending and less bond issuance. Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts forecast around A$115 billion in issuance for fiscal 2027, down from around A$125 billion expected in the current fiscal year.
Bloomberg
Australian outdoor advertising company oOh!Media has found itself in the middle of a bidding war. I Squared Capital unveiled an all-cash offer for the company on Monday, valuing the company at A$765.9 million. The bid was roughly 15% above a rival offer from Pacific Equity Partners last month. The Sydney-based company’s stock jumped 7.1% Monday.
The price of iron ore is climbing. Futures for the commodity trading in Singapore climbed to a the highest since October 2024, reflecting signs of solid Chinese demand. Weekly flows from Australia and Brazil increased for a second week through May 3, according to data from Mysteel.
An autonomous vehicle receives ore from a dumper in the Pilbara region of Western Australia.
Photographer: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg
New Zealand is set to introduce a law change to prevent private legal action against climate polluters. The response to climate change is best managed by the government and “not through piece-meal litigation in the courts,” Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith said. The retrospective law will derail a current case against companies including Fonterra, Z Energy and New Zealand Steel.
Traders that have piled into short positions against the New Zealand dollar may find themselves wrongfooted by a potential hawkish tilt by the country’s central bank, according to currency analysts. Leveraged short positions held by hedge funds hit the highest since 2019 this month by one measure. Those bets may run aground should interest rates edge higher.
What happened overnight
Rising oil prices sent bonds lower Monday in the US after Washington and Tehran failed to agree on terms to end their war. The news failed to stem a rally in chipmakers, which powered the US S&P 500 benchmark of blue-chip stocks to a fresh high.
The US-Iran ceasefire is on “massive life support,” President Donald Trump said Monday, after Tehran responded to Washington’s peace proposal by demanding a lifting of the naval blockade and sanctions relief, while maintaining some control over Strait of Hormuz traffic. Trump called Iran’s reply “garbage,” in comments to reporters.
SoftBank Group is considering a multibillion-dollar AI data center investment in France, and may unveil a project in the coming weeks, according to people familiar with the matter. Founder Masayoshi Son has held talks over the project, which would expand the Japanese company’s broader buildout of AI infrastructure.
Apple’s Tim Cook, Tesla’s Elon Musk and BlackRock’s Larry Fink are among a group of executives the White House has invited to accompany Trump on his trip to China this week, according to an official. Others include David Solomon of Goldman Sachs and Jane Fraser from Citigroup.
What to watch
• 11:30 a.m. NAB Business Confidence for April
• 7:30 p.m. Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivers the budget
One more thing...
The Google Cloud logo.
Photographer: Angel Garcia/Bloomberg
Security researchers at Alphabet Inc.’s Google said they believe a cybercrime group used artificial intelligence to create a hacking tool that can bypass defenses in a widely-used tool to administer computer systems. The scheme, which was foiled when Google alerted the tool developer, would mark the first time that Google’s Threat Intelligence Group caught a hacker using an AI-generated “zero-day” in such a way, according to a report published Monday. Zero-day vulnerabilities are flaws unknown to the developer, leaving defenders no time to patch before they can be exploited.
MORE:Explore live streaming news and interviews, documentaries, reporter analysis and more, all in one place. Check out Bloomberg.com/videos.
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