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3 Stocks With Yields Big Enough to Make Election Volatility Easier to Stomach
Reported by Bridget Bennett. Originally Published: 10/23/2026.
Key Points
- Lincoln National pairs a dividend yield near 4.5% with annuity demand that tends to strengthen as interest rates rise.
- AbbVie has raised its dividend every year since its spinoff from Abbott Laboratories and grew second-quarter revenue 10%.
- Phillips 66 faces Wall Street forecasts for a roughly 7% earnings decline next year, a bar that could prove too low.
- Special Report: Why This Clean Energy Well Escaped the Solar and Wind Cuts.
Election season has a way of making portfolios feel more fragile than they are. Polls point in one direction, betting markets point in another, and stocks swing on every headline about who will control Congress next.
That anxiety can push investors to position for an outcome nobody can reliably predict. Polling has missed badly in recent cycles, and divisions within both parties make the numbers even harder to trust.
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Watch the Cybercab footage and judge Elon Musk's technology yourselfThere's a cleaner approach: Instead of betting on a winner, own companies that pay cash regardless of the result. That's where midterm-election dividend stocks earn their place. Dividend income arrives whether the market rallies or stumbles, and it compounds when reinvested.
Three names fit that approach across three very different corners of the market: an insurer benefiting from higher rates, a drug giant with a long record of raising its payout and a refiner that Wall Street may be underestimating.
The Year After a Midterm Has Historically Favored Stocks
History has been bullish on the other side of the vote. Going back to 1900, the market has gained about 12.5% on average in the year after a midterm, according to Marc Lichtenfeld, chief income strategist at The Oxford Club.
Narrow the window to 1980 onward, and the average return on the S&P 500 climbs to roughly 17.5%. Since 1938, the post-midterm year has been positive about 95% of the time, by his count.
The logic is less mystical than it sounds. By a president's second year, early enthusiasm has faded, the opposition often gains ground and gridlock sets in. Fewer sweeping laws mean businesses can plan with more certainty, and markets tend to reward that.
None of that is a reason to trade the election. Money needed within a year or two doesn't belong in stocks, in Lichtenfeld's view, and long-term investors are better off staying the course. A 3% to 5% dividend yield can make it easier to stay invested when the market turns.
Rising Rates Turn Insurers Into Quiet Winners
Insurers collect premiums and invest them conservatively so claims can be paid. When rates climb, those portfolios earn more, while a $300,000 home policy still pays $300,000. The spread widens in the insurer's favor.
Lincoln National (NYSE: LNC) is Lichtenfeld's pick for this theme, but with a caveat. Annuities are one of its biggest revenue drivers, and he has long warned investors about their cost, complexity and steep early-exit penalties.
Demand doesn't appear to be affected by that critique. Fixed annuities are popular, and higher rates make them more appealing. A 4% annuity was a tough sell a few years ago. At 6% to 7%, the math becomes more compelling for retirees seeking certainty.
Lincoln National has also transferred some reserves to a reinsurer, shifting a portion of potential life insurance claims off its own books. Add a dividend yield near 4.5%, and the stock pays investors to wait.
The market has cooled on financials after a run to record highs, partly because investors sold the news once higher rates arrived. A steady climb in rates could lift margins and sentiment. A sudden spike is the risk worth watching.
Drug Demand Holds Up No Matter Who Controls Washington
Healthcare is about as recession-resistant as markets get. People with serious conditions find a way to fill their prescriptions, regardless of the economy or the party in power.
AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV) has been one of Lichtenfeld's long-running favorites, dating back to when the stock was widely disliked. It has raised its dividend every year since its spinoff from Abbott Laboratories (NYSE: ABT) more than a decade ago—the kind of consistent dividend growth income investors prize.
The growth hasn't stalled. Revenue rose 10% in the second quarter, backed by a deep pipeline, some of the world's top-selling cancer drugs and a strong track record of acquisitions.
The common objection is valuation after a long run. At roughly 20 times forward earnings, AbbVie isn't cheap—but it isn't stretched, either. Continued earnings growth or a significant pipeline win could support a higher multiple, and stocks making new highs often keep making them.
Policy is the real swing factor. Medicare price negotiations and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval timelines affect AbbVie just as they do Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK). A broad drug portfolio spreads that risk, and the industry ranks among Washington's largest lobbying forces.
An Oil Risk Premium Could Keep Refiner Margins Elevated
Energy's case rests on a shift that may not unwind quickly. The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz exposed how easily supply can be choked off. Even with a peace deal, Lichtenfeld expects a lasting risk premium that keeps oil from revisiting $40 to $50 anytime soon.
Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) entered his portfolio before the conflict began as a way to add refining exposure alongside pipelines and producers. Refining margins have since surged, and the company has raised its dividend every year for more than a decade.
Here's where it gets interesting. Because this year's earnings are so strong, Wall Street projects roughly a 7% earnings decline next year. Lichtenfeld, a former sell-side analyst, sees that forecast as too pessimistic, noting that the Street tends to arrive late. If Phillips 66 posts growth when analysts expect contraction, that gap could become a meaningful catalyst.
The risk is a recession or a peace agreement that compresses margins faster than expected. The upside is that the bar has already been set low. Watch refining margins and analyst estimate revisions for next year.
Income Is the One Election Outcome Investors Can Control
Lincoln National, AbbVie and Phillips 66 don't share a sector, a catalyst or a customer. What connects them is cash. Each pays investors while the political noise plays out, and each has a business driver that doesn't hinge on which party wins.
The setup depends on rates rising gradually rather than spiking, healthcare demand remaining durable and energy retaining some risk premium. It doesn't depend on reading the polls correctly, timing the vote or guessing how Congress will split.
In a midterm year, the election is a headline. The dividend is a deposit.
Stay focused on rate direction, refining margins and dividend growth because those are the factors that can move these three stocks long after November.
For more of Lichtenfeld's income research, get the Oxford Income Letter and Marc Lichtenfeld's special report on his number one oil refinery pick.
Spotify Soars After Earnings as the Company Touts AI Benefits and Moderating Costs
Authored by Leo Miller. Publication Date: 10/23/2026.
Key Points
- Spotify shares jumped 11% after earnings, its largest single-day gain since May.
- Investors appeared encouraged by underlying metrics like premium subscriber growth, gross margin expansion, and progress on AI initiatives.
- Spotify expects costs to moderate going forward and has set 2030 targets of 35% to 40% gross margin and over 20% operating margin.
- Special Report: Why This Clean Energy Well Escaped the Solar and Wind Cuts.
Shares of Spotify Technology (NYSE: SPOT) surged following the company’s latest earnings report, ending its two-quarter streak of post-earnings declines. Spotify shares gained 11%, marking the entertainment stock’s largest single-day gain since May and leaving shares roughly flat for the year.
Contrary to what investors might have expected, Spotify’s sharp rise wasn’t driven by the company exceeding expectations on its headline metrics. In fact, the company reported in-line or below-consensus results on several key figures. Instead, investors appear to have viewed Spotify’s longer-term trajectory favorably, as the company touted its AI initiatives and indicated that costs should moderate over the coming quarters.
Spotify Posts Mixed Headline Metrics, Solid Underlying Metrics
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Download Dave Aquino's free Rapid Retirement guide today.Spotify’s revenue during the quarter was 4.97 billion euros (approximately $5.58 billion), an increase of 14% year over year (YOY) on a constant-currency basis. This figure fell slightly short of estimates of $5.64 billion. However, after accounting for currency movements relative to expectations, Spotify’s revenue was essentially in line with estimates.
Spotify’s diluted earnings per share (EPS) was $2.78, significantly below estimates of $3.16. In the fourth quarter of 2026, Spotify expects to report revenue of approximately $5.82 billion, also slightly below estimates of roughly $5.86 billion. Given Spotify’s lackluster headline numbers, it appears investors placed more weight on other metrics reported by the company.
Notably, the company’s premium subscribers increased 9% YOY to 306 million, one million above its guidance. Additionally, gross margin expanded by 140 basis points YOY to 33%, which was 10 basis points higher than expected, while operating income also exceeded guidance. The company’s monthly active users (MAUs) increased 11% YOY to 788 million, right in line with its target.
Next quarter, Spotify expects to add 30 million MAUs and 10 million premium subscribers, bringing the totals to approximately 818 million and 316 million, respectively.
Spotify Highlights AI Investments, Including Its “Taste Model”
Spotify also highlighted how it expects AI investments to benefit growth over time, pointing to several key opportunities. One of the most notable is the company’s use of AI to build and improve its “large taste model.”
Spotify uses trillions of data points on users’ listening habits to train its taste model to predict what they will want to hear next. The ultimate goal is to increase user engagement by helping people discover more content they enjoy. Spotify notes double-digit growth in discoveries, a leading indicator of how “exciting” users find Spotify. The company says that, even as the taste model remains in the early stages of rollout, it is already on track to add billions of hours of listening annually.
Potential Engagement Gains and Moderating Costs Could Benefit Margins Long Term
Increasing engagement is important for several reasons. First, it can make people more likely to keep their subscriptions, reducing churn. This is important because Spotify’s user growth metrics subtract users lost from users gained, resulting in a “net” figure. By reducing churn, Spotify needs to add fewer new users to increase its overall user base, benefiting revenue growth over time.
Increased engagement can also make people less likely to unsubscribe when Spotify raises prices, making the company more likely to achieve its desired growth from price hikes. Price increases can account for a significant portion of Spotify’s growth. During the quarter, 7.5%, or approximately half of Spotify’s 15% constant-currency premium revenue growth, came from average revenue per user (ARPU) expansion. The company noted that price increases were the primary driver of ARPU expansion.
Despite not delivering particularly impressive growth metrics during the quarter, Spotify’s rally may be attributable to encouraging early signs from its AI initiatives and its cost trajectory. The firm expects a gross margin of 33.8% next quarter, up approximately 70 basis points YOY. It expects investments and costs to moderate from the third quarter to the fourth quarter and into next year. Additionally, its AI investments have accelerated the rollout of new features while keeping headcount flat, according to the firm.
These factors suggest that Spotify could realize the growth benefits of its AI investments while also protecting profitability, potentially setting the company up for sustainable margin expansion over the long term.
By 2030, Spotify is targeting a gross margin of between 35% and 40%, representing a 300-basis-point to 800-basis-point expansion from its 2025 gross margin of 32%. Spotify is also targeting an operating margin above 20% by 2030, representing an increase of more than 700 basis points from 13% in 2025.
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