Beyond repair

UK politics is in disarray  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. Is it another case of Broken Britain, where a decade after voting to leave the European Union, the country’s politics have fractured beyond repair? Or does it speak to a more troubling phenomenon — that few places appear governable. These days, one would be hard-pressed not to wake up to news in Europe of yet another government falling (Romania), one leader resigning over drones (Latvia) or another getting heckled by trade unionists (Germany).  From Mexico to South Africa, rulers across continents are struggling, even the veterans. Many barely have time to enjoy their electoral success before becoming cripplingly unpopular. Keir Starmer won a landslide victory with his Labour party less than two years ago. Now he is on his way out. Larry, the Downing Street cat, outside the UK prime minister’s residence. Photographer: Jaimi Joy/Bloomberg Niccolò Machiavelli made the observation that “a cautious man, when it is time to be adventurous, does not know how to behave, so he is ruined.” Starmer was cautious to a fault. By contrast, Giorgia Meloni has been unafraid to be bold. But her longevity in the once-ungovernable Italy is perhaps the exception rather than the rule, and points to a sense that leaders have to stand for something. With so much dysfunction, the EU’s executive arm has been amassing more power. It’s worth remembering that the overreach of Brussels fueled successive waves of populist nationalism. Few have been more consequential than the English variety. The original Brexiteer, Nigel Farage, dealt Starmer a fatal blow in local elections to reveal just how divided the kingdom is. The traditional two-party British system has shattered into seven shards. Impatient voters with ever-shorter attention spans, just want to swipe screen to a fresh face.  But cycling through another leader will do little to fix what has been broken. It’s a reality that whoever winds up replacing Starmer will need to grapple with. — Flavia Krause-Jackson Starmer (center) with French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and German chancellor Friedrich Merz in Paris on April 17. Photographer: WPA Pool/Getty Images Global Must Reads Donald Trump said he and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed the Islamic Republic shouldn’t possess a nuclear weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz should reopen, as Beijing urged further diplomacy. The US leader told Fox News that the goal of recovering highly enriched uranium from Iran was “more for public relations than it is for anything else,” while reiterating his commitment to removing the nuclear material. After Xi regaled Trump with goose-stepping soldiers and flag-waving children, the Chinese leader’s warning that Taiwan could lead to “clashes” between the superpowers amounted to a thunderclap in the choreographed world of Communist Party politics. The assertion that American interference may trigger a “highly dangerous situation” marked Xi’s bluntest language yet. Meanwhile, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer anticipates that China will commit to billions in American agricultural purchases. The US and China summit readouts suggest differences remain on key issues. Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro denied that money he sought from a scandal-plagued banker was meant for his younger brother amid mounting pressure on his fledgling campaign. The senator and top challenger to leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva reiterated in an interview that funds he requested from the man at the center of a sprawling fraud probe were intended to support a film about his father, former leader Jair Bolsonaro. Tensions were already high Wednesday night in the Philippine Senate, days after lawmakers abruptly ousted its leader and an ex-cop wanted by the International Criminal Court showed up after six months in hiding. But few could guess at how suddenly terrifying things were going to get, with the chamber plunged into chaos when dozens of gunshots suddenly rang out. Read our account here. Cuba said it has completely run out of the diesel and fuel oil it needs to keep its power plants running, with civil unrest breaking out amid a de facto US energy blockade of the communist-run nation. While the island of 10 million people is using domestic fuel production and solar energy to keep some lights on, the grid is now so fragile that large swaths of the country are going dark. Cuba’s electrical union said it could only cover about a third of national power demand. Senate security officers respond after gunfire was heard in the Senate. Photographer: Aaron Favila/AP Photo The United Arab Emirates tried to persuade neighboring states including Saudi Arabia and Qatar to coordinate a military response to Iran’s strikes and was left frustrated when they refused, sources say. The Pentagon scrapped plans to send about 4,000 troops to Poland, sources say, part of a broader review of the US military presence in Europe as Trump feuds with Germany and other members of the NATO alliance. The US Defense Department said it may not have the resources in Africa to properly identify when Islamic State and al-Qaeda offshoots in the restive Sahel region develop the capability to mount attacks on the US homeland. An Ebola outbreak in northeastern Democratic Republic of the Congo linked to 65 deaths and hundreds of suspected infections has triggered concerns the disease could spread across borders. Don’t miss from Bloomberg Weekend: Mishal Husain speaks with Kishore Mahbubani about China’s role in the world. John Boudreau and Nguyen Xuan Quynh write about Vietnam going all in on gambling, while Kevin Crowley and Adam Blenford look at the importance of price of gasoline in US politics. Subscribe to the newsletter here. On this week’s Trumponomics, Sebastian Mallaby of the Council on Foreign Relations says Chinese AI is closing the gap — and that means Washington can’t afford to ignore safety talks during this week’s high stakes summit. Listen on Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Hungary’s ambition to join the euro is changing the hierarchy of eastern European bond markets in a way that hasn’t been seen in years. Its borrowing costs are lower than Poland’s for the first time since 2020 and the gap over Czech Republic bonds has fallen by two percentage points since March. The shift underscores how investors have changed their mind on some of the region’s biggest economies as new Prime Minister Peter Magyar embarks on a mission to bring Budapest into the European mainstream. And Finally Students are getting a lucrative offer at one of Russia’s leading engineering universities: ditch your studies for a year, fly drones for the military and earn more than 5 million rubles ($68,000) as well as free tuition on your return. It’s part of a broader push to recruit from universities and colleges, using lavish signing bonuses, academic leave and even outright coercion, as Russia’s military tries to tap a population once largely shielded from service to join its war in Ukraine. An advertisement for contract military service in the Russian army’s unmanned systems units in St. Petersburg. Photographer: Olga Maltseva/AFP/Getty Images More from Bloomberg Check out our Bloomberg Investigates film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries Next China for dispatches from Beijing on where China stands now — and where it’s going next Next Africa, a daily newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed Economics Daily for what the changing landscape means for policymakers, investors and you Green Daily for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance Explore more newsletters at Bloomberg.com We’re improving your newsletter experience and we’d love your feedback. 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Must Read: Everyone Is Chasing the Puck. Here’s Where It’s Headed Next...

I believe there’s an important shift underway that most folks don’t see…

Everyone Is Chasing the Puck. Here’s Where It’s Headed Next… VIEW IN BROWSER The NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs are underway right now – and if you’ve been watching, you know playoff hockey has a way of producing absolute chaos. Momentum swings happen fast. One bad bounce can change an entire game. And every now and then, you see something so bizarre you can hardly believe it happened. That’s exactly what happened during a game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers recently. Flyers defenseman Nick Seeler somehow managed to hit himself in the face with an opponent’s stick… and still drew a penalty against Pittsburgh. You can’t make this stuff up. But here’s the thing about hockey: Players know what they’re signing up for. And a puck to the face is sometimes part of the game. Unfortunately, the same thing is happening in the economy right now. Everyday Americans are feeling it every time they pull up to the pump. And for a lot of families, it’s starting to feel like taking a puck to the face. Over the past several weeks, Wall Street has been consumed by headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, rising oil prices and renewed inflation fears. The average price of gasoline recently surged above $4.50 per gallon – quickly approaching the record highs we saw in 2022. And in many parts of the country, prices are already well beyond that level. And frankly, I don’t expect much relief anytime soon unless geopolitical tensions cool considerably. So, the big question is… what should we do in this environment? And that’s what I want to talk about in today’s Market 360. Recommended Link The “Secret City” That Built the Atom Bomb Is Back And what it’s building now could trigger a $100 trillion AI reset Deep in the Appalachian Mountains of Tennessee — behind razor wire most Americans will never see — the same secretive government lab that gave America the atom bomb is building something new. President Trump is calling it “America’s Manhattan Project for AI.” When it launches, it will leapfrog every AI model on earth — ChatGPT, Gemini, and Elon’s Grok — and accelerate AI breakthroughs by 360-fold. Louis Navellier — who called Nvidia before its 44,000% rise — has identified the one stock to own before it happens. Click here to get the name and ticker, free of charge. Skate to Where the Puck Is Going Wayne Gretzky didn’t become the greatest hockey player of all time by skating to where the puck was. He skated to where the puck was going to be. That’s exactly how I think about investing. While the world has been focused on the chaos in the Middle East, something extraordinary has been happening on the other end of the ice. Recently, four of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” companies – Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Meta Platforms Inc. (META) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) – released better-than-expected quarterly results. But what really captured Wall Street’s attention was what these companies said about AI spending. Ahead of those reports, analysts expected these four hyperscalers to spend about $670 billion on AI in 2026. After the reports, that estimate jumped to roughly $725 billion. And spending is expected to accelerate even further in the years ahead. The puck is moving fast, folks. And the next big winners in AI probably won’t be the names everyone is already talking about. Where I’m Skating Next… As the AI Revolution shifts into the next phase, the opportunities aren’t just in the obvious names everyone already knows. The biggest gains will come from the companies quietly solving the problems that make the whole boom possible – the picks-and-shovels plays that Wall Street hasn’t fully discovered yet. How do I know? Because we’ve already found big winners like this before, thanks to Stock Grader (subscription required). You see, Stock Grader scans through a universe of about 6,000 stocks. It then grades them based on a series of fundamental indicators – as well as institutional buying pressure. This is what led me to winners like Bloom Energy Corporation (BE) – which has delivered my followers and me to a gain of roughly 1,100% in about 14 months. Back when we found Bloom, it was a small, $5 billion company. Barely anyone knew about it. So, if we want to find the next winners, chances are good that Stock Grader will point us in the right direction. And right now, it’s detecting something bigger than just the AI buildout. Let me explain… The Biggest Opportunity I’ve Seen in Decades On May 15, a new era begins at the Federal Reserve. And based on everything Stock Grader is showing me, I believe the investors who get positioned before the crowd figures out what it means are going to look back on this moment the way early internet investors look back on 1995. Why 1995? If you remember, the internet boom was already underway. But that’s when the Fed began a significant campaign of key interest rate cuts. We all know what happened next. The tech-heavy NASDAQ would soar 420% before the end of the dot-com era. Now, think about where we are today. The parallels are there. We have an AI boom that’s already in full swing. A new Fed regime. An administration publicly calling for 150 basis points in rate cuts. It will take some time for those rate cuts to play out. Inflation is still a factor, and the Fed moves more slowly than anyone wants. But rate cuts are coming, folks. And when they do, it’ll be like pouring gasoline on the fire. That’s why, tomorrow afternoon at 1 p.m. Eastern, I’m going to explain everything at The 10X Fed Shock Event. Not only will I tell you what I think the media is missing about this new Fed regime and its agenda for rate cuts, but I’ll also explain why I think a specific group of smaller, faster-moving stocks will lead the way higher. In fact, some smaller stocks are already beginning to show the same early signals in Stock Grader that I’ve tracked before every major small-cap bull run of my career. That’s why I’ve also put together a list of 53 stocks that Stock Grader is flagging right now. I call it the Exclusion List, and you can access it for free by signing up to attend tomorrow. This list is how I intend to keep skating to where the puck is going. If history is any guide, this list could be full of future big winners – so I encourage you to take full advantage. Plus, if you join me tomorrow, I’ll also share my highest-conviction picks from that list and give away a free stock recommendation just for attending. Click here to reserve your spot for Wednesday’s event while there’s still time. Sincerely, Louis Navellier Editor, Market360 The Editor hereby discloses that as of the date of this email, the Editor, directly or indirectly, owns the following securities that are the subject of the commentary, analysis, opinions, advice, or recommendations in, or which are otherwise mentioned in, the essay set forth below: Bloom Energy Corporation (BE)

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Is Polaroid coming for today's stock market?

To get John Authers’ newsletter delivered directly to your inbox, sign up here. Yes, it’s Chairman Kevin. The Senate has confirmed Warsh as

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To get John Authers’ newsletter delivered directly to your inbox, sign up here. Today’s Points: Yes, it’s Chairman Kevin. The Senate has confirmed Warsh as Fed chair. US stocks are still surging — the Nasdaq 100 rose 1.04% to a new all-time record.   US producer price inflation is now running at more than 6%. Keir Starmer is still the UK prime minister — but it’s not quite clear how. AND: Happy birthday Stephen Colbert.

Half a Century Later It has been more than 50 years since the high-flying Polaroid Corp. fell back to earth during the collapse of the famed Nifty Fifty bubble. At its peak, Polaroid controlled nearly two-thirds of the instant-camera market and traded at earnings multiples exceeding 90x. Other Nifties enjoyed similarly extreme multiples, beyond anything in today’s AI-driven rally.  When the bubble burst, the Nifties brought the whole markets down with them, underperforming along the way. This chart is from Bridgeway Capital, produced as long ago as 2021 when the post-pandemic surge in tech stocks had set off another bubble alarm: Naturally, this drives comparisons between the two eras. The Nasdaq 100 closed Wednesday at yet another record — but could its momentum ultimately unravel? The prevailing investor enthusiasm bears striking resemblance to the optimism around the Nifty Fifty half a century ago, even as market breadth appears considerably narrower now than it did then. In recent months, robust earnings across the board have led to a slight diversification away from the mega caps. But concentration is much greater now than in 1972. Such levels, coupled with unrestrained spending on AI data-center buildouts, make it difficult to dismiss the possibility that the trade could unravel in a painful way. At the peak of what felt like an unassailable dominance in the early 1970s, the Nifty Fifty, a group of 50 stocks, accounted for roughly 45% of the S&P 500 value, though market leadership at the time was spread across a more diverse mix of industries. Meanwhile, as of May 13, 2026, just the top 10 — all tech groups apart from Berkshire Hathaway — account for roughly 40% of the index. There are fundamental justifications for this. As Points of Return has documented, earnings are on a record tear, particularly for semiconductors. Margins are remarkable. But previous bubbles were not entirely speculative either; Polaroid, Kodak, Xerox and the others exerted similar dominance from their wide economic moats.    Seth Cogswell of Running Oak Capital compares the two eras’ spending cycles, and questions the economics of hyperscale infrastructure spending:  Right now, it doesn’t make sense. Nvidia handing customers money to buy their products doesn’t make sense. That's not the way that business works, unless you’re in a position where that’s the only way to keep it going. The ecosystem right now is all being subsidized in a whole lot of ways. Jeremy Grantham, the founder of the GMO fund management group who famously warned about the dot-com bubble, argues that the profitability of today’s market leaders isn’t as impregnable as investors assume. In this interview, he notes that “earnings are not sacred.”  He argues that mega-cap profits could soon feel pressure from the enormous costs of the data-center buildout, and then from the fact that the AI monsters now being built will ultimately compete against one another. Head-to-head competition, while good for consumers, is all but certain to damage profits.  It’s also hard to ignore the obvious dangers lurking beneath what Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds describes as a “macro mania” unfolding in plain sight. He points to the VanEck Semiconductors Exchange-Traded Fund, which has risen roughly 60% since its late-March trough. Even though proponents cite fundamentals to justify current pricing, he says it’s hard to make a common-sense case that the outlook has swung so swiftly for a sector of such size: It’s one thing to bid a single stock. Even spot gold is a pretty tiny market all things considered, where even a 10 or 20 billion incremental bid from the $100 trillion equity markets can create a squeeze. It’s a whole other dynamic to expect global equity earnings to surge 10% on the back of the sector at the center of speculation. Over-pricing increases the risk of a correction, but says nothing about when it might happen, or how big the pullback could be. Capital Economics’ James Reilly points to the unusual lockstep movement between the VIX and S&P 500 over the past week. Usually they have an inverse relationship, with investor anxiety rising as stock prices fall. The current pattern has happened only a handful of times in recent decades, notably just before the “Volmageddon” selloff in early 2018 and around the start of the software stock selloff late last year.  The bear case, Reilly argues, is that this is an unstable rally, just as on those two occasions. Investors are chasing the market higher, having been caught out by the size of the rally, but feel the need to buy more downside protection amid heightened tail risks. He adds: The VIX is driven by demand for calls, too, and retail buying has reportedly risen to Covid-era extremes lately. The bigger picture is that these developments are odd and, alongside extreme dispersion in performance, means this equity rally comes with a bit of a health warning. When such dynamics emerge, Elliott argues they’re far more likely to end badly than culminate in remaking the global economy. Questioning today’s optimism can sound almost Luddite, but market history suggests that caution is warranted. — Richard Abbey UnhaPPIness US producer prices brought fresh evidence that the oil supply shock is beginning to ripple through into other prices. The producer price index is always more prone to big swings than consumer prices, but an outcome above 6% topped estimates and brings it right to the heights of its historical range since the 1980s — excluding the post-pandemic surge. There are other signs of building pressures. While gasoline prices naturally hog attention, Bloomberg’s index for all non-energy commodities is also now at an all-time high — even though precious metals, an important component, are down about 15% since their peak in January. But the price rises aren’t just a function of the oil shock. Grace Zwemmer, US economist at Oxford Economics, argues that these numbers should push the headline Personal Consumption Expenditure deflator, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, to 3.8% — its hottest reading since May 2023 and far too high to permit rate cuts.  Beyond oil, she pointed out that prices of electronics components and accessories had risen by 8% month-on-month, as AI demand has created a shortage of memory chips. Electronic components inflated by 27% year-on-year, ending decades of persistent reducing costs. This could throw many companies’ assumptions badly awry. Until now, as we’ve seen, the sole market reaction to this development has been to send the share prices of chip manufacturers into the stratosphere. It might be wise to guard against some of the potential adverse consequences as well.  Keir We Go Again Keir Starmer, the UK’s prime minister, is in awful political trouble. This isn’t new for the country. Since 2010, which saw the end of 13 years of Tony Blair/Gordon Brown center-leftism, which had followed directly from 18 years of free-market right-wing policies under Margaret Thatcher/John Major, political intrigue and uncertainty has become the norm. Starmer is the sixth prime minister since then, in a period that has been characterized by either unstable coalitions or fierce internal battles whenever one party has a strong majority in Parliament.  In a long-term perspective, it’s obvious that the UK’s political instability has been economically harmful. It’s also wrought havoc with financial markets. As bond market investors are already alarmed about fiscal stability, and any replacement for Starmer would almost certainly worsen the problem (in their eyes) by trying to loosen fiscal spending, this is a dangerous situation. Gilt yields are now slightly higher than they were when a bond market revolt forced the ejection of Liz Truss in 2022: But while Starmer, like Truss before him, appears to be in terminal difficulties, it’s not clear that his political problems have had any great impact on bonds just yet. The UK is more economically exposed than the US to the Iran war, and the extra spread on gilt yields compared to Treasuries has moved almost directly in line with the oil price since the outbreak of hostilities. Why, then, is the Starmer effect muted? In part because he has evidently been in trouble for a while, and markets have long been priced on the assumption that he probably won’t last beyond the end of this year. Polymarket’s contract on Starmer to leave his job by Dec. 31 was initiated six months ago, and it has almost put the odds at more than 50%. The mess around choosing a successor doesn’t add significantly to the financial damage for the UK, as the market in general doesn’t think any of the alternative candidates would be an improvement. In stocks, Britain’s underperformance has endured for years. The slide started long before the 2016 Brexit referendum, although that certainly made things worse. After seven successive prime ministers who oversaw a stock market that underperformed the rest of the world, the market seems satisfied that it’s priced in British political dysfunction. There were no great expectations of improvement under Starmer, and there is no disappointment now that his premiership is panning out as badly as investors expected. Lousy UK political governance, it would appear, is already in the price. There’s no prospect of that changing. That’s miserable for the country’s prospects. It also explains why the century-old Labour-Conservative duopoly seems finally to have been broken, as Britons have had enough. But in the shorter term, it probably means that the market downside from Starmer’s agonies isn’t as severe as it might appear.

Survival Tips

Happy birthday Stephen Colbert. The late-night comedian is 62 today, a week before his show goes off the air in an incident widely regarded as a case of political cancellation. There are good arguments about whether late-night shows should be quite the liberal bastion they’ve become, but Colbert is certainly talented. Here he is at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner in 2006; and here talking to a recently bereaved Joe Biden who hadn’t lost his eloquence; channeling Bill O’Reilly in his nine-year run as a fake pundit on the Colbert Show; and with Jon Stewart on the Daily Show.  More From Bloomberg Opinion Apollo’s Pricing Plan Will Transform Private Credit: Nir Kaissar AI Anxiety Won’t Be Eased by Universal Basic Income: Kathryn Anne Edwards How Long Can the US Be the Oil Supplier of Last Resort? Javier Blas

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