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Friday, April 10, 2026
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Brussels Edition: Stagflation threat
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Welcome to the Brussels Edition. I’m Suzanne Lynch, Bloomberg’s Brussels bureau chief, bringing you the latest from the EU each weekday. Make sure you’re signed up. The EU’s top economy official warned today that the bloc still faces the threat of stagflation despite the temporary ceasefire in Iran. Speaking to a committee in the European Parliament, Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis raised the specter of low growth and higher inflation, predicting that GDP could be 0.6 percentage points lower and inflation as much as 1.5 percentage points higher this year and next. How to respond remains contentious. Following a request by five member states for a tax on the windfall profits that energy companies make due to price spikes, Dombrovskis said the Commission was looking into a more coordinated approach. Such an approach is “currently being assessed” and “remains a possibility,” he told lawmakers. 
Valdis Dombrovskis speaks to the European Parliament’s committee on economic and monetary affairs.
Photographer: Omar Havana/Bloomberg
The comments come as countries across Europe grapple with high energy costs. Protests against fuel prices have brought gridlock to cities in Ireland, France has introduced a new loan program for small businesses, while Italy has cut excise duty on fuel. Dombrovskis warned today that any measures, which include taxes on energy, “need to be temporary and targeted.” With France burdened with a persistently high deficit and Italy struggling with debt, any moves that would jeopardize the health of public finances is being closely watched in Brussels. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure said today that the government still intends to keep the deficit within its target of 5% of economic output. Figures on Friday showed that Italy’s budget shortfall reached 3.1% of GDP last year, breaching the EU’s limit. Italian Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said it was “inevitable” that the EU revises the 3% deficit ceiling on member countries. But asked today, Dombrovskis said that a condition for activating the stability and growth pact’s general escape clause — which allows countries to deviate from the rules — is a “severe economic downturn.” “We are currently not in this scenario,” he said. The Latest
Seen and Heard on BloombergThe Trump administration’s allegations that the EU is targeting US companies when it comes to technology regulation are “inaccurate,” according to European Data Protection Board Chair Anu Talus. European regulators are making decisions “outside of any political pressure,” she told Stephen Carroll in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. “It is not only the US companies the regulators are investigating and focusing on; data protection authorities are equally investigating European companies.” Chart of the Day
Bets on a ceasefire between the US and Iran have sent more than $170 million coursing through Polymarket, making it one of the largest geopolitical wagers in the short history of prediction markets. Now, the aftermath is raising the same questions that have dogged the platforms for months: whether bettors are trading on inside information and whether the platforms can cleanly settle the contracts they broker. Coming Up
Final Thought
Viktor Orban and US Vice President JD Vance embrace at a pre-election rally in Budapest on April 7.
Photographer: Akos Stiller/Bloomberg
When US Vice President JD Vance arrived in Budapest this week ahead of Hungary’s election, it was a path well-trodden. French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, her Dutch counterpart and Poland’s president have all visited in an bid to bolster their ally Viktor Orban. The vibe in Hungary suggests that Europe’s longest-serving prime minister needs all the help he can get. Opinion polls show his opponent, Peter Magyar, has a steady double-digit lead in a vote that will have geopolitical ramifications from Washington to Moscow. Like the Brussels Edition?Don’t keep it to yourself. Colleagues and friends can sign up here. How are we doing? We want to hear what you think about this newsletter. Let our Brussels bureau chief know. We’re improving your newsletter experience and we’d love your feedback. If something looks off, help us fine-tune your experience by reporting it here. Follow us
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Pakistan’s moment
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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. Tomorrow marks the start of highly anticipated peace talks between the US and Iran. The unlikely star of the show, however, is Pakistan. The South Asian country has pulled off a coup, managing to bring together the warring parties to the capital Islamabad after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif helped broker a ceasefire this week. Vice President JD Vance will lead the US team as international delegates descend on the leafy Pakistani capital, which virtually overnight has transformed into a fortress.  
Dan Strumpf explains how Sharif used global ties to broker a ceasefire and buy time for talks.
Even if the parties don’t strike an immediate deal, Pakistan comes out ahead: It’s garnered elevated prestige on the world stage, earning goodwill from virtually all sides. That’s key, given that the US is an important source of investment, and Iran of energy. That’s not to say there are no potential downsides. As a treaty ally of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan risks getting sucked into any resumption of the conflict while it’s already fighting Afghanistan. Tensions appear to be emerging with the United Arab Emirates, which called in a $3 billion loan. For now, though, the jubilation in Pakistan contrasts with the mood in India, where officials are warily eyeing events across the border. The global affirmation flowing Islamabad’s way undermines New Delhi’s longtime strategy of trying to isolate its neighbor and cast it as a bad actor that sponsors terrorism. To India, the talks lend legitimacy to Pakistan’s top leaders, Sharif and Asim Munir, the country’s powerful army chief, who has forged close ties with President Donald Trump. But for New Delhi, too, an end to this war would be welcome. Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has worked hard to avoid taking sides. In so doing, it’s skirted antagonizing Trump while helping to unlock energy shipments from Iran, putting it in good stead with both sides once the war concludes. When and whether it does, though, rests in no small part with Pakistan. — Dan Strumpf 
Sharif and Trump in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, in October.
Photographer: Suzanne Plunkett/Pool/Getty Images
Global Must ReadsBenjamin Netanyahu agreed to hold talks with Lebanon as Trump said the Israeli prime minister is “going to low-key it” with strikes, signaling some hope for de-escalation even as Netanyahu vowed to keep fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah. While years of lobbying by the Israeli leader paid off when Trump decided to go to war with Iran, the fault lines in one of the president’s closest geopolitical relationships now threaten to box him in. 
The aftermath of an Israeli strike in Beirut, Lebanon, on Wednesday.
Photographer: Elisa Gestri/Sipa/AP Photo
Ukraine’s top negotiator with Russia told us that he sees progress toward a potential peace deal with the Kremlin. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy meanwhile said Ukraine will “mirror” Russia’s actions after Vladimir Putin announced a brief Orthodox Easter ceasefire, shifting the focus to whether Moscow would actually halt fighting. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell summoned Wall Street leaders to an urgent meeting on Tuesday to discuss concerns that the latest artificial-intelligence model from Anthropic will usher in an era of greater cyber risk. They want to make sure banks are aware of possible future threats raised by Anthropic’s Mythos and potential similar models, and are taking precautions to defend their systems, sources say. Venezuela’s National Assembly passed a mining law pushed by Acting President Delcy RodrÃguez to court US support and foreign investment, replacing a nearly three-decade-old framework and that’s part of her broader effort to offer legal guarantees and a more flexible tax regime to international investors. Separately, security forces blocked an anti-government march from reaching the presidential palace yesterday after a vague pledge to raise wages failed to calm workers angered by soaring prices. President Xi Jinping’s diplomatic backing for Iran is being constrained by a vast trail of Chinese capital across the Gulf, where the Asian nation is outcompeting the US as a regional financier. Still, as Trump neared his self-imposed deadline on the Islamic Republic this week, one country had enough clout to convince Tehran to de-escalate: Iranian officials credited a last-minute push by Beijing with securing their acceptance for a truce. 
Xi met the leader of Taiwan’s biggest opposition party, the Kuomintang’s Cheng Li-wun, in Beijing today, and reaffirmed China’s claim to sovereignty over the self-governing democracy. Global telecom companies operating in South Africa must partner with local businesses partly owned by Black citizens to comply with post-apartheid equality rules, but Elon Musk’s SpaceX has spent the past year trying to get those rules changed. The Pentagon and the Vatican both denied allegations of a rift following Pope Leo XIV’s criticism of the Trump administration and reports that a senior US defense official warned the Catholic Church to take Washington’s side. US First lady Melania Trump denied ties to the late, disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein in a rare on-camera statement, calling online claims about a supposed relationship “false smears” and threatening retaliation. Don’t miss from Bloomberg Weekend: Mishal Husain chats with Pakistan’s former ambassador to the US, Maleeha Lodhi, about Islamabad’s diplomatic moment, Zoltan Simon looks at Hungarian newspeak, and Ben Westcott reports how a distant war is impacting Australian farmers. Subscribe to the newsletter here. Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni ousted the CEO of Leonardo, the state-backed aerospace and defense contractor, while retaining the leaders at energy firms Eni and Enel. Meloni is recalibrating leadership at state-controlled firms ahead of next year’s re-election campaign after a vote setback last month weakened the premier and heightened attention on this round of executive appointments. And FinallyItaly’s disparate opposition has been electrified by the referendum defeat handed to Meloni, galvanzing their hopes of unseating her at the election. Cue Silvia Salis, a 40-year-old former Olympic hammer thrower turned progressive mayor of Genoa, who is betting that countering Meloni’s culture-war script can make her a credible challenger. Salis doesn’t belong to any party but says she roots herself firmly in the left. As she broadens her appeal and gets ready for the prime time, some have even begun referring to her as the “anti-Meloni.” 
Silvia Salis.
Photographer: Carlotta Cardana/Bloomberg
Pop Quiz (no cheating!). Russia warned which country that relations had reached an all-time low? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net More from Bloomberg
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