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AI's $3,000 Power Problem

In today's Masters Series, last published in the July 30 issue of the free DailyWealth e-letter, Joel Litman examines one natural gas stock that's poised to take advantage of the data-center energy demand...
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Editor's note: This downtrodden commodity is set to soar...

With the price of energy for AI data centers rising, companies are turning to whatever it takes to keep their chips running. And now, despite pushback, natural gas is about to undergo a "renaissance" as the demand for electricity escalates.

In today's Masters Series, last published in the July 30 issue of the free DailyWealth e-letter, Joel Litman – chief investment officer at our corporate affiliate Altimetry – examines one natural gas stock that's poised to take advantage of the data-center energy demand...


AI's $3,000 Power Problem

By Joel Litman, chief investment officer, Altimetry

AI is reshaping North American power markets...

In fact, it's turning electricity into one of the hardest assets to secure. It's also creating a natural gas "renaissance" after decades of limited new development.

According to Brandon Freiman – a partner at global investment firm KKR (KKR) – the power sector has moved from years of flat demand into a new growth cycle... with AI as a key driver.

Costs are skyrocketing. Freiman says that new gas-fired plants, once priced at about $1,000 per kilowatt ("kW"), are now closer to $3,000 per kW.

Developers are responding by requiring long-term contracts with utilities and industrial customers before putting capital to work.

Today, we'll explain why AI-driven electricity demand is creating a durable tailwind for natural gas infrastructure... and why one company is better positioned than the market expects.

The demand is too large for one fuel source to handle alone...

The International Energy Agency ("IEA") expects data centers around the world to consume around 945 terawatt-hours ("TWh") of electricity annually by 2030.

That's roughly double today's level. And it represents a bit less than 3% of global electricity consumption.

Keep in mind that the worldwide power supply grew only 1.8% per year between 2000 and 2023.

The IEA also expects data-center electricity demand to rise around 15% each year from 2024 through 2030. That rate would be more than 4 times higher than the rise in electricity demand from all other sources.

U.S. data-center electricity consumption is expected to rise by about 240 TWh by 2030, up 130% from 2024. Data centers could devour between 9% and 17% of the power generated each year in the U.S. by 2030.

That growth needs power that runs every hour of every day... which is something wind and solar simply can't do.

Between its scale and its reliability, we're not surprised that gas remains central to the AI build-out...


Recommended Links:

After the Biggest IPO in History... Elon Musk's Next Move Could Double Your Money (or Much More)

In a town of less than 200... in a county where there are 3 times more cows than people... Elon Musk is now officially launching the biggest and possibly final venture of his life. And aided by forensic technology inspired by the CIA, Mossad, and the FBI... Joel Litman and his team at our corporate affiliate Altimetry are sharing the exact names and ticker symbols of stocks that could double within weeks... then soar 1,000% or more in the long run. Learn all the details at Altimetry's live online event on Thursday, August 27 at 8 p.m. Eastern time.


Early Retiree Posts Final Message to Fellow Readers

For eight years, I've torn open my personal life and my finances. I've shot videos inside my home, all to tell ONE critically important story: a powerful secret about income... freedom... and early retirement. Now, I know I've done all I can – and it's time to say "goodbye." But I'm not going out quietly... or without securing one final prize for fellow readers. See this and grab your "share" while you still can.


Natural gas already supplies more than 40% of U.S. data-center electricity. That makes it the top energy contributor.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) is one of the largest natural gas distributors in the country.

The company's assets include more than 50,000 miles of pipelines, 300 million-plus barrels of storage capacity for liquid fuels, and 14 billion cubic feet of natural gas storage capacity.

With AI demand booming, Enterprise's massive footprint gives the company a major advantage. That's because AI power demand is turning reliability into the key factor.

As we mentioned earlier, more and more power projects are securing long-term supply contracts before construction begins.

Enterprise is getting ahead of this trend. It recently launched new processing equipment at its Mentone West facility, which is already under long-term contracts.

Despite unprecedented demand, investors don't seem to think the good times will last...

We can see this through our Embedded Expectations Analysis ("EEA") framework, one of the tools we use at Altimetry.

The EEA starts by looking at a company's current stock price. From there, we can calculate what the market expects from the company's future cash flows. We then compare that with our own cash-flow projections.

In short, it tells us how well a company has to perform in the future to be worth what the market is paying for it today.

Enterprise has generated Uniform return on assets ("ROA") of around 12% in recent years, which is equal to the corporate average. At Altimetry, we analyze earnings with Uniform Accounting to avoid the distortions of traditional accounting methods.

The market projects that Enterprise's Uniform ROA will fall below 9% over the next five years... even as AI-related power demand increases the value of reliable gas infrastructure. Take a look...

The market is underestimating this tailwind. Pipelines may be boring... but they're necessary.

Enterprise doesn't need AI companies to overspend forever. It only needs electricity demand to keep rising and data centers to want to power their operations with natural gas.

That will make Enterprise's network of pipelines more valuable... with next to no additional investment.

A threefold increase in the cost of building new gas plants makes existing infrastructure all the more important. A 130% rise in U.S. data-center electricity consumption by 2030 creates durable demand.

And yet, investors aren't buying it.

The AI trade has moved beyond chips and servers... It's reaching the pipelines and storage facilities that will allow natural gas to keep data centers running.

That means the grid build-out is turning Enterprise's old assets into hot commodities.

Regards,

Joel Litman


Editor's note: Following the SpaceX IPO, Elon Musk isn't resting on his laurels. First he targeted the AI power bottleneck with "Dark Energy." Now he has his sights set on other bottlenecks – including memory, compute, physical infrastructure, and more.

And he'll spend as much as he needs to become the "Kingmaker" of the industry.

This spending spree will send a wave of capital flowing through different businesses... and Joel believes a select handful of stocks will soar as a result.

That's why he's stepping forward to show you the "Launch Signal." These are the stocks that could benefit most from Musk's new venture. Click here before August 27 to learn how you can profit from Musk's goals.

Musk’s Greatest Embarrassment Could Be His Greatest Success

Every single transaction you’ve ever made on card is because one man was embarrassed...

Africa’s hidden carbon sink

New research unveils peatlands the size of Qatar ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌
Read in browser

New research shows Angola’s peatlands are at least four times bigger than initially thought. The ecosystem is key to regulating water flow in southern Africa’s rivers and stores carbon.

In today’s newsletter, the study’s lead researcher explains how it raises hopes that more of the vital stores of carbon could be discovered across Africa.

If you prefer listening, don’t miss our latest Zero episode, in which Lord Nicholas Stern talks about why he’s optimistic about our ability to tackle climate change.

Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to all our coverage.

Africa’s overlooked landscape

By Antony Sguazzin

Angola’s peatlands, which regulate water flow in southern Africa’s biggest river systems and store climate-warming carbon, are at least four times larger than initially thought, a new study showed.

They cover as much as 11,100 square kilometers (4,286 square miles), researchers said in the paper published Wednesday. Their work was supported by the Nature Conservancy and diamond company De Beers.

The ecosystems — which are water-logged, oxygen-poor and stall the rotting of dead plant material — help maintain water flow to rivers including the Zambezi as well as to the Okavango Delta in Botswana, which sits at the heart of an area supporting the world’s biggest population of elephants.

The Cuando River in Angola.
The Cuando River in Angola.
Photographer: Kostadin Luchansky/National Geographic Society

While Angola’s peatlands are a fraction of the size of those found further north in the Congo Basin, which hosts the world’s biggest such tropical marshes, the findings demonstrate that more of the vital stores of carbon could be discovered across Africa. Scientists have increasingly stressed the importance of the areas in slowing climate change because of their ability to store carbon rather than release it into the atmosphere.

“We are only starting to understand and realize how much tropical peatland there actually is in Africa,” Mauro Lourenço, the lead author of the paper and a geospatial ecologist, said in an interview. While the study places Angola’s peatlands as the continent’s fifth-biggest, more could be found there as well as in Zambia, Lesotho, South Africa and in vast swamps in South Sudan, he said.

In 2022, a study showed that the Congo Basin peatlands — which stretch across the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Congo Republic — were 15% bigger than found in previous analyses at almost 167,000 square kilometers.

“The point of the exercise was to prove we had peatlands” in Angola, said Lourenço, who works for the Wild Bird Trust and the National Geographic Okavango Wilderness Project. “The next step is to provide a full carbon inventory for the peatlands.”

Mokoros on the shore of the Cuando River. Photographer: Kostadin Luchansky/National Geographic Society
Mokoros on the shore of the Cuando River.
Photographer: Kostadin Luchansky/National Geographic Society via Photographer: ©Kostadin Luchansky/National Ge/National Geographic Society

The swamps store groundwater during the wet season and release it gradually throughout the year. They form part of the so-called Angola Highlands Water Tower and cover an area the size of Qatar. Locally, the area is known as Lisima Lya Mwono, which means “source of life” in the Luchazi language.

The water flows into one of the world’s most important biodiversity regions — the Kavango Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area known as Kaza. That zone stretches across five countries and provides a home for 228,000 wild elephants, about 40% of the world total. Lisima Lya Mwono has also been designated as Angola’s first Ramsar site, a recognition by an international convention on wetlands.

The Zambezi River feeds power plants key to electricity provision in Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique.

“There is no Okavango Delta or Kaza without Angola’s peat,” the researchers said in a statement accompanying the paper published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, a scientific journal.

Read more

Deep sink

29 billion

Number of tons of carbon contained in the Congo Basin peatlands. That’s equivalent to about three years of global carbon dioxide emissions.

Trapped in time

“Peatlands near the riverbanks have been storing carbon for over 1,100 years, while higher-altitude peatlands have been accumulating carbon for more than 7,000 years.”

National Geographic Society

On the findings of the new Angola peatlands study

Your latest Zero listen

It’s 20 years since the Stern Review declared that the costs of inaction on climate change are much higher than the costs of action. So why are emissions continuing to rise? Lord Nicholas Stern tells Bloomberg’s Akshat Rathi why he is optimistic about our ability to tackle climate change and what makes those actions the growth story of the 21st century.

Listen now, and subscribe on Apple, Spotify or YouTube to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday.

Rare tornado touches down on Long Island

By Lindsey Rupp

The National Weather Service confirmed that a tornado touched down at Long Island’s Atlantic Beach on Thursday evening amid powerful storms in the New York City area.

No serious injuries were reported, but the tornado forced the temporary closing of the Silver Point and Sun & Surf Beach Clubs after damage to cabanas. It was the first confirmed tornado in Nassau County since 2021.

“Radar data, video of the waterspout coming onshore, and damage reports in the vicinity of the Sun and Surf Beach club in Atlantic Beach allow for confirmation of a tornadic touchdown in this area,” the weather service said in a statement. 

Heavy rain and thunderstorms slammed into New York City on Thursday, prompting ground stops and lengthy delays at major airports. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman declared a state of emergency and activated the county’s Emergency Operations Center.

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