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Why Walmart’s Rally May Need a Reset
Written by Thomas Hughes. First Published: 5/26/2026.
Key Points
- Weaker-than-expected Q2 and FY2027 guidance has triggered a technical market top, with WMT shares likely to pull back by $10 or more.
- Despite the near-term pullback risk, 34 analysts maintain a consensus Buy rating on WMT with a $139 price target and a 94% Buy-side bias.
- Walmart's high valuation of 44 times current-year earnings and mounting consumer inflation pressures could keep shares range-bound well into 2027.
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”
Walmart’s (NYSE: WMT) stock price can reach new highs because the trends driving its long-term success remain intact.
The world’s largest retailer continues to grow, gain market share, and generate robust cash flow, allowing it to pay dividends and buy back shares.
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The Wall Street Journal is already raising the alarm about a potential market crash, and Weiss Ratings research points to the first half of 2026 as a particularly rough stretch for certain holdings.
Some of America's most popular stocks could take serious damage as a radical market shift plays out. Analysts at Weiss Ratings have identified five names you may want to remove from your portfolio before this unfolds.
If any of these are in your portfolio, now is the time to review your positions.
See the 5 stocks to avoidThe result is rising shareholder value and a continued incentive to own the stock, a recipe for higher prices. The problem right now is technical.
Although the stock remains in an uptrend, a top has formed, and the stage is set for prices to pull back by $10 or more.
Walmart Signals Top in Q2: Pullback Imminent
Walmart’s top began with a MACD convergence that formed early in 2026. That convergence suggests fresh highs will be reached or, as in this case, that current highs will at least be retested if a price pullback occurs. Prices did, in fact, pull back after the February high and have since rebounded to retest that level. However, they did not break through it, which is the key development in late May. With Q2 and FY2027 guidance coming in weaker than expected, that failure marks a market top that is unlikely to be broken until bullish catalysts emerge. Those catalysts probably won’t appear until later in the year, when economic data and subsequent earnings reports are released.
The analyst trends remain bullish for WMT stock. The worst-case scenario is that analysts reset their price targets, which would be a near-term headwind at best. As it stands, MarketBeat tracks 34 analysts with current ratings. They peg the stock at a consensus Buy rating with a 94% Buy-side bias and see it as fairly valued near $139, which would be an all-time high if reached. The risk is that analysts begin trimming targets, which could become a catalyst for market selling. The question is whether they set a new low target or reaffirm the market floor at $120.
Technically speaking, analysts’ low-end target of $120 aligns with a key support level and likely marks the bottom of this correction. A move below that level would signal a shift in market dynamics that has not yet shown up in analyst trends or institutional activity. Institutions and family holdings account for approximately 80% of the float, and neither group is selling shares. Institutions have been accumulating aggressively and are likely to buy on any price dip.
High Valuation Means Walmart Can’t Make Mistakes
Valuation is a concern that could keep Walmart shares range-bound for the foreseeable future. The company deserves a premium for its market leadership, growth trajectory, cash flow, and capital returns. However, at 44x current-year earnings estimates and 24x the 10-year outlook, the stock is not cheap. The most likely outcome is that WMT shares trade in a range until later this year, or potentially into 2027, as sales trends improve, the company grows into part of its valuation, and the outlook brightens.
Capital returns are not expected to change much for Walmart in 2026. The dividend yields an annualized 0.8% with shares near record highs, which is not especially robust but is reliable, and payments are expected to rise over time. The company is a Dividend King, pays out approximately 35% of earnings as dividends, and has a healthy balance sheet capable of sustaining operations and capital returns. Buybacks are also modest, but they remain consistent and reduce the share count each quarter.
Walmart: Hot Results Versus Tepid Guidance
Walmart’s guidance left something to be desired, but it was likely cautious given Q1 strengths and broader consumer trends. The company reported nearly $178 million in net revenue, up 7.3% year over year and 160 basis points better than expected. Strength was seen in e-commerce, up 26%, advertising, up 37%, membership fees, up 17.4%, and positive comparable sales across categories.
Margin news was the weakest part of the report, with gross margin expansion offset by higher fuel costs. The key takeaway is that earnings continue to grow, albeit at a slightly slower pace than revenue, and guidance was not bad. The company reaffirmed its prior targets, expecting revenue growth to slow by year-end but margins to improve.
Walmart’s biggest risk this year is the consumer. Inflation pressures are mounting and, coupled with exhaustion, Walmart may see traffic and discretionary revenue contract. In that scenario, Walmart could underperform its guidance in the coming quarters, pushing the stock below expectations. A move to $100 is not out of the question, and even lower lows are possible if oil prices remain elevated and weakness persists into 2027.
AI’s Biggest Bottleneck Could Make These 2 Stocks Soar
Written by Jeffrey Neal Johnson. First Published: 5/28/2026.
Key Points
- The shift from 48-volt to 800-volt power architectures in AI data centers and EVs is creating structural demand for analog chips from Texas Instruments and onsemi.
- Bank of America raised its price targets for both companies, setting onsemi at $138 and Texas Instruments at $370, citing data center growth as a key driver.
- Onsemi's $6 billion share repurchase program and 7.47% short interest create conditions that could amplify upside if the stock's operational catalysts continue to materialize.
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”
While retail capital chases the computational firepower of AI logic chips, a more fundamental story is unfolding in the circuitry that powers them. The insatiable energy demands of next-generation data centers and electric vehicles (EVs) are driving a non-negotiable architectural shift from legacy 48-volt systems to 800-volt platforms. This transition turns analog power management integrated circuits (PMICs) from simple components into mission-critical bottlenecks.
Institutional capital is taking notice, quietly building positions in the gatekeepers of this power revolution. Two innovators, Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN) and onsemi (NASDAQ: ON), are positioned at the center of this supercycle. Supported by aggressive buybacks, recent sell-side upgrades and the structural leverage to influence the pace of AI expansion, they represent a compelling, and perhaps underappreciated, way to invest in the future of technology.
An AI Problem of Physics, Not Just Code
ALERT: Drop these 5 stocks before the market opens tomorrow! (Ad)
The Wall Street Journal is already raising the alarm about a potential market crash, and Weiss Ratings research points to the first half of 2026 as a particularly rough stretch for certain holdings.
Some of America's most popular stocks could take serious damage as a radical market shift plays out. Analysts at Weiss Ratings have identified five names you may want to remove from your portfolio before this unfolds.
If any of these are in your portfolio, now is the time to review your positions.
See the 5 stocks to avoidThe AI boom is fundamentally an energy problem. As data center racks surpass 100 kilowatts of power density to support clusters of advanced GPUs, traditional 48V power distribution architectures are hitting a thermal wall.
The physics are unforgiving. Since power loss in the form of heat is proportional to the square of the current (I²R), doubling the voltage from 400V to 800V cuts the current in half, thereby reducing energy losses by 75%. This move isn't just an optional upgrade; it is an economic and engineering necessity that allows for thinner, lighter copper wiring and dramatically less waste heat.
This is where the thesis for analog semis gains strength: these companies provide the sophisticated chips needed to safely and efficiently manage high-voltage environments.
Texas Instruments has evolved from a component supplier into a core architectural partner for the biggest names in tech. Its collaboration with NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) on a complete 800V DC power framework shows that next-generation logic cannot scale without a corresponding leap in power delivery.
By enabling a more direct, efficient power-conversion path from the 800V source to the processor, the technology developed by Texas Instruments reduces the number of failure points and costly conversion stages.
onsemi is carving out a dominant position by focusing on intelligent power solutions. The acquisition of Aura Semiconductor's power IP directly targets the high-margin data center market, giving onsemi critical power-management technology at the point of load. At the same time, its silicon carbide (SiC) technology has become the gold standard for high-efficiency EV platforms.
At the 2026 Beijing Auto Show, onsemi's SiC solutions were featured in an estimated 55% of new EV models, including next-generation 900V platforms from global players like Geely (OTCMKTS: GELYY) and NIO (NYSE: NIO), cementing its role as a key enabler of vehicle electrification.
Reading the Voltage on Corporate Confidence
An investor can learn a lot by watching how a management team allocates capital. In this regard, onsemi is sending one of the market's clearest signals. The board is actively executing a massive $6 billion share repurchase program, authorized in late 2025, giving it the mandate to retire nearly a third of its outstanding shares. Investors should see this as more than a financial maneuver; it is a statement of strong confidence from leadership that believes onsemi's stock price is fundamentally undervalued.
To fuel this aggressive buyback without throttling investment, onsemi recently announced a $1.3 billion convertible senior notes offering. This is a savvy move, providing immediate strategic capital to execute the buyback while protecting the R&D budget for critical technologies, such as its Treo platform, which saw staggering 2.5x sequential growth in Q1 2026. This use of intelligent leverage signals a belief that future stock appreciation will far outweigh the cost of debt.
Texas Instruments, a more mature and diversified player, demonstrates its strength through operational resilience. Management acknowledged some near-term choppiness in the Chinese automotive sector during its Q1 2026 earnings call, a potential macro headwind. Yet, Texas Instruments' financial performance shows that this weakness is being offset by growth in its Data Center and Industrial segments. The stock's exceptionally low short interest of 1.72% suggests that bears have largely given up betting against this diversified powerhouse.
Wall Street Flips the Switch on Price Targets
The sell-side is beginning to align with this powerful thesis. Bank of America recently raised its price targets for both companies. It lifted its target for onsemi to $138, citing underappreciated content gains in AI data centers. It also raised its Texas Instruments target to $370, forecasting that Texas Instruments' data center business alone could reach $4.5 billion by 2028, accounting for up to 18% of total sales.
This pivot is particularly relevant for onsemi. The stock still carries a significant short interest of 7.47%, representing over 29 million shares sold short. This creates a compelling technical setup. With management now confirming that the period of inventory digestion in its legacy automotive business is "largely behind us," the operational catalysts are aligning. A high short float, a massive corporate buyback and a positive inflection in the core business create classic conditions for a potential short squeeze, where a rush of short covering could fuel upside volatility.
The Analog Opportunity: A Charged Path Forward
The core argument is simple: for every dollar spent on a high-powered AI logic chip, an increasing share must be allocated to the sophisticated analog technology required to power it efficiently and reliably. The secular shifts toward AI and vehicle electrification are structural, long-term tailwinds that appear poised to benefit both Texas Instruments and onsemi for years to come.
Of course, no investment is without risk. The semiconductor industry is historically cyclical, and both companies face intense competition and geopolitical risks tied to global supply chains. A broader economic downturn could also temper demand in their key industrial and automotive markets.
Given the strong year-to-date performance, with Texas Instruments up 80% and onsemi up 130%, some investors may prefer to wait for a broader market pullback before initiating a position. Cautious investors might consider adding both Texas Instruments and onsemi to a watchlist to monitor for attractive entry points, as the 800V supercycle appears to be in its early innings.
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