Things seem quiet… Too quiet. If history is indicative of the future, we are clearly teetering on the edge of the next industry shocking event. While we have some peace and quiet, I'll selfishly take this opportunity to get feedback on my latest theses.
Last night (after watching the movie Air which I highly recommend), I became inspired to go to the drawing board and find some long tail tokens to buy over the coming months. My PA has been mostly cash, BTC, and ETH for over a year now.
This deep in the bear market, there is only one thing I am personally looking for and that's narratives. In my 6+ years working in crypto, I've learned fundamentally good use cases generally underperform easily bought into visions for the future that people seem to be reaching confluence on.
Think DeFi in summer 2020, NFTs toward the beginning of 2022, or alt L1s between the two. Keep in mind these were the "peaks" for these narratives. Story arcs generally don't come to fruition immediately. They form over years.
For example, the DeFi narrative started with MakerDAO, Aave (at the time Ethlend,) and Basis Cash evolving into its apex years later with the introduction of Compound yield farming and a YFI airdrop. Similar to NFTs with Beeple's $69 million sale (among other things) piquing the general public's interest and L1s with the failure in EOS setting the stage for the later narrative.
So my question is, what are the next big narratives and where are they in their life cycle? This is an impossible question to know the answer to but it's what I'm doing my best to think about. Here are the potential narratives I came up with:
- Perps
- L2s
- LSDs
- Gaming
- Crosschain
- DAOs/Governance (longshot)
The first three have the potential to fit very well into the real yield narrative. L2s less obviously through their sequencer revenue.
Next up, the harder parts: deducing where in the lifecycle they sit and picking the right tokens within each narrative. I will likely pick ~2 tokens for each, with allocations based on my confidence level, and chuck a small bag at them hoping a couple hit when the next bull market eventually rolls around. I will keep you all updated.
In other more important news, yesterday we announced that our team is hiring. If you are a based gigabrain onchain degen please consider applying. Additionally, I apologize and have a correction from yesterday's newsletter. I incorrectly stated that Jump Trading started selling after the Arkham false alert. In reality, they started selling prior to that alarm.
- Matt Fiebach
No comments:
Post a Comment