Wednesday, November 30, 2022

5 things to start your day

Good morning. Another signal from Jerome Powell, mysterious hole in FTX's balance sheet and a new phase in China's fight against Covid. Here

Good morning. Another signal from Jerome Powell, mysterious hole in FTX's balance sheet and a new phase in China's fight against Covid. Here's what people are talking about. 

Smaller Hike

Chair Jerome Powell signaled the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of interest-rate increases in December, while stressing borrowing costs will need to keep rising and remain restrictive for some time to beat inflation. His comments, in a speech Wednesday at the Brookings Institution in Washington, likely cement expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points when they meet Dec. 13-14. Meanwhile, the Fed's Beige Book regional economic survey, released on the same day, shows the US economy grew only slightly through late November, with businesses reporting that high inflation and rising interest rates clouded their view of the economic outlook.

The Missing Billions

Mystery continues to shroud the missing billions at bankrupt crypto exchange FTX after its disgraced founder Sam Bankman-Fried denied trying to perpetrate a fraud while admitting to grievous managerial errors. In his first major public appearance following the Nov. 11 implosion of FTX and sister trading house Alameda Research, Bankman-Fried said Wednesday by video link at the New York Times DealBook Summit that he ``screwed up'' at the helm of the exchange and should have focused more on risk management, customer protection and links between FTX and Alameda. His participation was controversial given there are outstanding questions about how FTX ended up with an $8 billion hole in its balance sheet and whether it mishandled customer funds.

New Phase 

Beijing will allow some virus-infected people to isolate at home, starting with residents of its most-populous district, a significant shift that reflects the pressure officials are under from a record outbreak and public opposition to Covid Zero.  Low-risk patients can do home isolation for a week if they choose, people familiar with the plans said, dialing back a nationwide policy that has seen everyone with Covid sent to government quarantine sites regardless of severity, to halt transmission chains. Earlier, China's top official in charge of the fight against Covid-19 said the country's efforts to combat the virus are entering a new phase with the omicron variant weakening and more Chinese getting vaccinated. 

Biological Weapons

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has elevated US concerns that Vladimir Putin's government could use biological weapons, according to a top US State Department official who's in Geneva for a review of the global treaty addressing such threats. Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security Bonnie Jenkins said that the concerns have increased as Russia has continued to make unsupported allegations about US development of biological weapons in Ukraine. Such disinformation could mask Russia's own weaponization of infectious diseases, she said. 

Coming Up…

European shares are set to join a global stock rally after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a slower pace for rate hikes. French President Emmanuel Macron meets US President Joe Biden at the White House. There's a slew of manufacturing PMIs coming out across Europe, while it's relatively light on the earnings front.

What We've Been Reading

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours. 

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And finally, here's what Eddie is interested in this morning

Asset prices these days are a function of liquidity, that much is widely agreed. The post-lockdown rally in risky assets wouldn't have happened but for the ``Don't Fight the Fed'' and ``There Is No Alternative'' mantras that became the memes that drove trading after March 2020. Subsequently, this year's drawdown in stocks is a direct result of tightening at the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Tightening, in turn, is a consequence of inflation, which the prevalent wisdom goes, probably isn't transitory. Except it might be, at least in the current round, because headline CPI readings have started to surprise to the downside -- largely driven by lower energy costs -- and much-feared wage-cost increases have so far been limited. That makes the biggest numbers that we're going to get out of the US this week the labor force participation rate, and average hourly earnings, which will feed all the way back, through the loop, to move asset prices and investor sentiment.

Eddie van der Walt is Deputy Managing Editor of Markets Live in London. @EdVanDerWalt

Brussels Edition: Oil countdown

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.Europe is in a race agai

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Europe is in a race against time to impose a price cap on Russian oil. Diplomats from the EU's 27 member states are still haggling over the price at which to cap Russian crude exports and have just a few days to go before sanctions — which look much more restrictive — kick in on Monday. Countries are discussing a level of $60 a barrel to help secure agreement, amid pressure by Poland and Baltic nations to go further than the $62 floated earlier this week. They're also locked in a battle against the market, with Russian oil tumbling well below the level proposed for the cap. Those ingredients are set to make for a fierce debate over the coming days, the result of which could determine just how successful the measure is in hurting Moscow.

John Ainger

What's happening

Delicate China | EU Council President Charles Michel meets with President Xi Jinping in Beijing at a particularly delicate time as the country grapples with a wave of protests over its restrictive Covid policies. It's possibly Xi's biggest policy dilemma after a decade in power and is not made easier following the death of former leader Jiang Zemin who presided over China's rapid growth following the Tiananmen Square protest.

And a Warning | NATO countries must avoid repeating mistakes they made in relations with Russia and ensure they limit dependence on China, alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg told Bloomberg TV. He also described China's behavior toward Taiwan as "aggressive, coercing and threatening," saying "there is no reason for that and any conflict around Taiwan would be in nobody's interest."

Rate Tangle | The European Central Bank is about to enter a new phase in its fight against inflation, probably heralding more contentious decisions on monetary policy. Starting this month, interest-rate increases will be accompanied by an extra lever for tightening as balance-sheet unwinding takes shape, all complicated by a likely recession.

Twitter Stress | The Commission will conduct a stress test at Twitter's headquarters early next year as the bloc's digital chief warned Elon Musk he has "huge work ahead" to comply with content moderation laws. Thierry Breton said the stress test will help Twitter to comply with the EU's new Digital Services Act ahead of key

Polish Threat | Poland's ruling party faces a threat to its majority after a political ally attacked the government's dealmaking with the EU and raised the prospect of exiting the coalition. The comments lay bare a simmering conflict between the nationalist Law & Justice and its junior partner. 

Train Pain | Traveling across the Channel for Christmas? It might have just got trickier. Eurostar security staff will strike for four days next month in a dispute over pay, threatening to disrupt thousands of journeys. The walkouts will take place on Dec. 16, 18, 22 and 23.

In Case You Missed It

Delayed Payday | Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban suffered another blow in receiving crucial funding from the EU. The Commission said the country had failed to allay its concerns over graft and the erosion of the rule of law, delaying disbursement of €5.8 billion of grants.

Slower Inflation | Euro-zone inflation slowed for the first time in 1 1/2 years, offering a glimmer of hope to the ECB in its struggle to quell the worst consumer-price shock in a generation. The reading for November was 10%, Eurostat said yesterday, less than the 10.4% median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg — the biggest drop since 2020.

Brexit Bang | The UK government will relax the ring-fencing of banks as part of efforts to deregulate the City of London and get a "Big Bang" out of Brexit, according to a person familiar with Treasury plans. Here's what that could mean for the finance industry.

Carbon Removals | The EU unveiled plans to ensure that projects to scrub carbon dioxide from the atmosphere — seen as critical to keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius — really do help tackle climate change. Over the coming years, the EU will lay out solutions from planting forests to directly sucking CO2 out of the air.

Debt Mountain | The world is emerging from the cheap-money era with a mountain of debt that's now getting painfully expensive. In the UK, where rates on most mortgages reset after two or three years, debt payments are on track to exceed 10% of all household income. In the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway, they're already well above that threshold.

Chart of the Day

The EU unveiled hefty regulations targeting packaging waste — something that has been increasing rapidly, posing a challenge to the bloc's green goals. Certain sectors — such as the beer industry — will face targets for reusing packaging, according to the rules. That could lead to bottle shapes being more uniform, while the rules are looser for wine. Here's what it could also mean for your Nespresso pods and toiletries. 

Today's Agenda

All times CET.

  • 9:10 a.m. NATO chief Stoltenberg speaks at Berlin Security Conference, followed by talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
  • 9:30 a.m. Competition chief Margrethe Vestager speaks at OECD Global Forum on Competition in Paris
  • 12 p.m. Council President Charles Michel meets China's Xi Jinping in Beijing
  • Commissioner Kadri Simson joins debate on energy crisis at European Committee of the Regions plenary
  • Climate chief Frans Timmermans speaks at European Policy Centre conference
  • Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks to Irish parliament in Dublin
  • EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell participates in OSCE Ministerial Council in Lodz, Poland

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