Wednesday, November 30, 2022

Brussels Edition: Oil countdown

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.Europe is in a race agai

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Europe is in a race against time to impose a price cap on Russian oil. Diplomats from the EU's 27 member states are still haggling over the price at which to cap Russian crude exports and have just a few days to go before sanctions — which look much more restrictive — kick in on Monday. Countries are discussing a level of $60 a barrel to help secure agreement, amid pressure by Poland and Baltic nations to go further than the $62 floated earlier this week. They're also locked in a battle against the market, with Russian oil tumbling well below the level proposed for the cap. Those ingredients are set to make for a fierce debate over the coming days, the result of which could determine just how successful the measure is in hurting Moscow.

John Ainger

What's happening

Delicate China | EU Council President Charles Michel meets with President Xi Jinping in Beijing at a particularly delicate time as the country grapples with a wave of protests over its restrictive Covid policies. It's possibly Xi's biggest policy dilemma after a decade in power and is not made easier following the death of former leader Jiang Zemin who presided over China's rapid growth following the Tiananmen Square protest.

And a Warning | NATO countries must avoid repeating mistakes they made in relations with Russia and ensure they limit dependence on China, alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg told Bloomberg TV. He also described China's behavior toward Taiwan as "aggressive, coercing and threatening," saying "there is no reason for that and any conflict around Taiwan would be in nobody's interest."

Rate Tangle | The European Central Bank is about to enter a new phase in its fight against inflation, probably heralding more contentious decisions on monetary policy. Starting this month, interest-rate increases will be accompanied by an extra lever for tightening as balance-sheet unwinding takes shape, all complicated by a likely recession.

Twitter Stress | The Commission will conduct a stress test at Twitter's headquarters early next year as the bloc's digital chief warned Elon Musk he has "huge work ahead" to comply with content moderation laws. Thierry Breton said the stress test will help Twitter to comply with the EU's new Digital Services Act ahead of key

Polish Threat | Poland's ruling party faces a threat to its majority after a political ally attacked the government's dealmaking with the EU and raised the prospect of exiting the coalition. The comments lay bare a simmering conflict between the nationalist Law & Justice and its junior partner. 

Train Pain | Traveling across the Channel for Christmas? It might have just got trickier. Eurostar security staff will strike for four days next month in a dispute over pay, threatening to disrupt thousands of journeys. The walkouts will take place on Dec. 16, 18, 22 and 23.

In Case You Missed It

Delayed Payday | Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban suffered another blow in receiving crucial funding from the EU. The Commission said the country had failed to allay its concerns over graft and the erosion of the rule of law, delaying disbursement of €5.8 billion of grants.

Slower Inflation | Euro-zone inflation slowed for the first time in 1 1/2 years, offering a glimmer of hope to the ECB in its struggle to quell the worst consumer-price shock in a generation. The reading for November was 10%, Eurostat said yesterday, less than the 10.4% median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg — the biggest drop since 2020.

Brexit Bang | The UK government will relax the ring-fencing of banks as part of efforts to deregulate the City of London and get a "Big Bang" out of Brexit, according to a person familiar with Treasury plans. Here's what that could mean for the finance industry.

Carbon Removals | The EU unveiled plans to ensure that projects to scrub carbon dioxide from the atmosphere — seen as critical to keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius — really do help tackle climate change. Over the coming years, the EU will lay out solutions from planting forests to directly sucking CO2 out of the air.

Debt Mountain | The world is emerging from the cheap-money era with a mountain of debt that's now getting painfully expensive. In the UK, where rates on most mortgages reset after two or three years, debt payments are on track to exceed 10% of all household income. In the Netherlands, Sweden and Norway, they're already well above that threshold.

Chart of the Day

The EU unveiled hefty regulations targeting packaging waste — something that has been increasing rapidly, posing a challenge to the bloc's green goals. Certain sectors — such as the beer industry — will face targets for reusing packaging, according to the rules. That could lead to bottle shapes being more uniform, while the rules are looser for wine. Here's what it could also mean for your Nespresso pods and toiletries. 

Today's Agenda

All times CET.

  • 9:10 a.m. NATO chief Stoltenberg speaks at Berlin Security Conference, followed by talks with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz
  • 9:30 a.m. Competition chief Margrethe Vestager speaks at OECD Global Forum on Competition in Paris
  • 12 p.m. Council President Charles Michel meets China's Xi Jinping in Beijing
  • Commissioner Kadri Simson joins debate on energy crisis at European Committee of the Regions plenary
  • Climate chief Frans Timmermans speaks at European Policy Centre conference
  • Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks to Irish parliament in Dublin
  • EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell participates in OSCE Ministerial Council in Lodz, Poland

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