Brace for next year’s El Niño heat

This summer was bad. Next year’s could be worse ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

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This summer’s heat has galvanized Europe. As France bakes under its fifth heat wave of the season and Spain registers record temperatures in September, governments are starting to plan for next year. Today’s newsletter considers what the summer of 2027 could bring with a phenomenal El Niño, and takes you inside UK hospitals, where patients and personnel sweltered this summer. We also bring you the latest on the floods in Nepal as the country demands climate compensation from the world’s largest polluters. And a look at what heat is doing to French cheese, bread and wine. Subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to all our coverage. A summer under El Niño By Olivia Rudgard This summer, Europe’s weather has triggered widespread consternation and worry. Weeks without rain, record-breaking temperatures, failed harvests, widespread fires and thousands of heat-related deaths have been difficult to ignore, for the public, for investors — and for politicians. As the natural weather phenomenon El Niño builds into one of the strongest ever recorded, meteorologists are now looking ahead to next summer. While it’s too early to forecast exactly what will happen, the UK’s Met Office is already saying that 2027 is likely to rival 2024 as Europe’s hottest year on record. Even if that doesn’t come to pass, climate change means future heat waves will be longer, more intense and more frequent than the record-breaking ones we have now. Parched grass beside the Houses of Parliament in central London on Aug. 14. Bloomberg “The heat waves and the wildfires have been really direct evidence that people can no longer ignore in front of their eyes,” says Beatrice Mosello, a senior research fellow at the think tank Chatham House. “It’s not just one event that is causing disruptions for a certain amount of time. It is having repercussions on so many different levels of our economy, of our society.” That concern is reflected in polling. After a record heat wave in France, an Ipsos survey in July found a 12-point increase in concern about the environment. Polling in Austria and the UK followed the same trend, which researchers at the Austrian market research firm INTEGRAL attributed to people’s direct experiences of heat and a sense that the country was ill-prepared. An air-conditioning hose pokes through an apartment window during high temperatures in Paris in June. Photographer: Benjamin Girette/Bloomberg And there are some signs that governments are taking more notice of climate change in their policies. In Germany, the environment minister is pushing to change the constitution and increase the central government’s responsibility for climate adaptation, after local governments said they didn’t have the resources to manage it effectively. In Spain, officials announced more funding for climate shelters, where people can seek refuge from heat, and for air conditioning in schools. In the UK, the health secretary said the National Health Service needs to prepare for more demand in the summer, just as the service currently plans for winter. But for the most part, tangible changes will take longer. Europe’s hospitals are one example. Many are in older buildings in built-up urban areas and don’t have comprehensive air conditioning, leaving them particularly vulnerable to overheating. In the UK, nurses have been fainting at work and medical staff have warned that conditions are unsafe. “I’m optimistic that we will see adaptation to heat waves being a higher priority in the NHS,” says Chris Naylor, a senior fellow in health policy at the King’s Fund, a research nonprofit. “Whether that will happen in time for summer 2027, I’m less confident.” Some operations were postponed this summer due to heat. That has focused minds in the health service, he added, since providers are under pressure to clear a significant waiting list. Even so, managers of hospitals and other healthcare facilities have many other demands on their time and budgets. The NHS said in an August statement that it has implemented “a range of measures to make conditions more comfortable for staff.” Those measures include deploying portable air conditioners and adapting uniforms, the health service said. Installing air conditioning and better insulation at hundreds of hospitals might not happen in the short term, says Naylor, but measures like solar-control glazing, reflective coatings on building roofs and better ventilation at night would all help and are quicker to implement. Get full coverage Deadly heat 32,600 Estimated heat deaths in Europe this summer, according to a Bloomberg compilation of statistical data across the region Brace for 2027 “It’s still incumbent on us all that we don’t forget, so that we are better prepared next year.” Emma Howard Boyd Chair of the UK’s independent National Heat Risk Commission Watch: The real toll of Europe’s heat As record temperatures sweep Europe, governments face hard trade-offs. Bloomberg Originals explores whether the continent can adapt to extreme heat amid political turmoil and economic scarcity. Nepal seeks climate compensation By Azman Usmani Nepal is demanding climate compensation from the world’s biggest emitters of greenhouse gases after deadly floods in the country killed more than a thousand people and left even more missing. China, the US and India have made “extremely large” contributions to climate change and left smaller nations “enduring the price of it,” Nepal’s Foreign Minister Shisir Khanal told Kantipur TV. “Nepal must hold its head high internationally and turn this into a matter of justice,” he said in the interview, which was broadcast earlier this week. “We will raise this matter explicitly and forcefully on international platforms.” Nepal’s demand for climate compensation follows the Aug. 26 flash floods in the Bhotekoshi River basin, triggered by a massive rock and ice collapse near the Nepal-Tibet border. The official death toll has risen to 1,114, with nearly 4,000 people still missing, according to authorities, as floodwaters destroyed homes, key bridges and critical hydropower infrastructure. “Nepal cannot reduce the world’s emissions on behalf of the polluters. It cannot protect the Himalayas through adaptation alone while the world continues to burn more fossil fuels,” the Global Campaign to Demand Climate Justice, a civil society coalition of 200 international groups, said in a statement on Tuesday. “And it should not have to take on more debt to protect its people from a crisis overwhelmingly created elsewhere.” Keep reading The Big Take podcast Big Take DIY Energy Traders Are Gaming the Grid Energy consumers are used to a pretty simple transaction with utility companies: get electricity to power your home, pay up every month. Now, more consumers are stockpiling their own energy using solar panels and batteries. And some are even making money by selling that energy back to the grid. On today’s Big Take podcast, host Sarah Holder talks to Zero host Akshat Rathi about a new class of at-home energy trader that’s vibe coding its way to daily energy savings and big profits. Listen here More from Green Singapore’s air quality unhealthy amid Indonesia fires Singapore’s air quality hit an unhealthy level on Friday as haze from forest fires raging in neighboring Indonesia continued to spread across swathes of Southeast Asia. Read more France declares fifth heat wave France is bracing for its fifth heat wave this year after the hottest summer in its history ravaged forests, hurt the tourism season and destroyed crops in Europe’s top agriculture producer. Patagonia sues Trump over shrinking of protected lands in Utah The company joins a coalition challenging the sharp reduction in size of Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante national monuments.  Photo finish A cheesemonger serves a customer at a deli in Paris. Photographer: Cyril Marcilhacy/Bloomberg France’s culinary identity faces an existential reckoning, with vines getting uprooted, wheat farmers struggling with heat and mozzarella challenging Camembert. When it comes to eating and drinking, wine, cheese and bread are the trinity that underpin French identity. Yet they also now represent the biggest challenge to the country’s mantle as Europe’s pre-eminent food nation as people cook differently, booze less and producers get squeezed by heat waves and wildfires. Read the story More from Bloomberg Business of Food for a weekly look at how the world feeds itself in a changing economy and climate, from farming to supply chains to consumer trends Energy Daily for a daily guide to the energy and commodities markets that power the global economy Tech In Depth for analysis and scoops about the business of technology Explore all Bloomberg newsletters. We’re improving your newsletter experience and we’d love your feedback. If something looks off, help us fine-tune your experience by reporting it here. Follow Us You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg’s Green Daily newsletter. 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