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🤝 TOGETHER WITH FIRST BALLOT DIGITAL |
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Scale-up optics, not another GPU guide |
It always comes down to the I/O. |
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⚡ THE SETUP |
MarketBeat, September 10. At Citi's Global TMT Conference, Marvell CEO Matt Murphy said the company can do about $12 billion in revenue this year and about $18 billion next, roughly $30 billion over two years, versus about $9.5 billion and more than $11 billion, about $20 billion combined, a year earlier.
The same MarketBeat piece. Teralynx switching, from the Innovium acquisition, is on track to exceed $1 billion. It had been framed around $150 million. Scale-up optics (NPO, CPO, and broadband analog) had been framed at $0 to $300 million next year. Murphy walked that band higher.
Seeking Alpha transcript, September 9. Murphy and CFO Dan Durn sat the Citi lunch keynote. More than 20 custom AI-silicon design wins across four major U.S. hyperscalers, XPU and XPU-attach. Connectivity stays the franchise.
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Marvell did not walk a GPU guide. |
It walked the I/O. |
About $12 billion this year. About $18 billion next. Teralynx past $1 billion. |
I am sitting with scale-up optics, not with another conference print. |
MarketBeat put Murphy on the record from Citi's Global TMT on September 9 and 10. Marvell. MRVL. The two-year book moved from about $20 billion combined to about $30 billion. That is the tell. It is not the mechanism. |
The mechanism is networking and scale-up optics. Teralynx switching, bought with Innovium, is on track to exceed $1 billion after a $150 million frame. Near-packaged optics came with Inphi. Co-packaged optics came with Celestial AI in December 2025. Broadband analog, NPO, and CPO had been framed at $0 to $300 million next year. Murphy walked that band higher. |
"it always comes down to the I/O." I keep that line. |
Would you actually underwrite another GPU guide, or would you underwrite the scarce layer that has to move bits between the GPUs? |
Seeking Alpha carried the Citi transcript from September 9. Custom AI silicon is the decoy. More than 20 design wins across four major U.S. hyperscalers. The franchise Murphy named is connectivity. Dan Durn sat next to him. |
TSMC shows up as supply. Longer-term arrangements on wafers, substrates, and backend. That is how you ship optics and switches. |
Most of the tape will trade the conference. The second derivative is the I/O behind every GPU those four hyperscalers already booked. |
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📊 BY THE NUMBERS |
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two-year revenue Murphy can now see (MarketBeat) |
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Teralynx switching, was ~$150M |
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the old scale-up optics band Murphy walked higher |
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A conference print does not ship a photon. |
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This morning the scarce piece is the I/O. |
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Scale-up optics is the tap. |
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🔎 THE SECOND DERIVATIVE |
Somebody else has to move the bits once the GPUs are full. Marvell already owns Teralynx switching, Inphi NPO, and Celestial AI CPO. The conference is the event. The optics are the product. Who underwrites that scarce layer first is the tap I want. |
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⚖️ THE COUNTER |
The foil is treating Citi as AI semis had a good conference, or sitting with custom silicon design wins as if they were the guide raise. MarketBeat named networking and scale-up optics. Seeking Alpha named the Citi transcript. A custom-silicon logo is not an optical engine. |
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The I/O layer is the one I want a tap on. |
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👀 WHAT TO WATCH |
Watch whether the scale-up optics contribution actually prints above the old $0 to $300 million band. Watch whether Teralynx clears $1 billion. Watch whether Murphy still says it always comes down to the I/O. |
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Knox Bennett, Lead Strategist, Strategic Compute |
P.S. If the scarce layer is scale-up optics, do you sit with another GPU guide or with the I/O that has to move the bits? Reply and tell me. |
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MarketBeat, September 10. Murphy at Citi: the $12 billion / $18 billion book, Teralynx past $1 billion, and scale-up optics walked higher. |
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Seeking Alpha, September 9. The Citi Global TMT transcript. Murphy and Dan Durn. Connectivity as the franchise. |
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