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The dust from major fights takes time to settle. Judging by the fighting that flared in recent days, the US-Iran war is not yet over. And the global implications of that conflict — its effects on world energy markets, the ways it has changed the balance of power in the Persian Gulf and beyond — will unfold for years to come. Yet one lesson is already apparent: There’s no substitute for strategy. Neglecting the fundamentals of that craft can doom even a superpower to disappointment and defeat.
This isn’t a new story. History offers many examples of conflicts in which the stronger party failed because of strategic misjudgments. Having more money and bigger battalions is helpful — but strategy is most valuable when it unlocks novel sources of advantage or produces an outcome different than cold military math might suggest.
As things stand, the Iran war falls in this category. It was a military mismatch: The US-Israel coalition inflicted devastating blows on a malignant regime. Yet that regime survived, and arguably succeeded, thanks to a strategy that was shrewdly effective. The US has mostly failed, so far, because costly strategic errors undercut its martial clout.
Strategy is the art of making power matter. The Iran war has shown, unfortunately, that an asymmetry of strategic competence can offset a profound asymmetry of strength.
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