Crypto News: Next Africa: Two sides of change

Welcome to Next Africa, a daily newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed. Sign up here to have it delivered to your email. In today’s edition, we look at Nigeria’s oil industry reforms. And:

The Nigerian stocks rally is the world’s best
Egyptian inflation is easing despite fuel shock
We look at the impact of Morocco’s football success

Too Much, Too Soon?

Bola Tinubu is overseeing, perhaps, the most consequential reform yet of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry.

The manner in which he’s going about it is beginning to worry investors.

The president’s biggest change was scrapping a costly fuel subsidy, followed by incentives for deep-water projects and tax waivers on certain fossil-fuel investments. Approvals have been faster for international companies divesting and special concessions were granted to Aliko Dangote’s mega-refinery.

The results are showing.

Nigeria — Africa’s biggest crude producer— is finally a net exporter of petroleum products. Shell, TotalEnergies and ExxonMobil have announced major deep-water commitments, while local producers that benefited from divestments continue to boost output.

A seller counts Nigerian naira banknotes at a weekly market in Abuja, Nigeria, on Monday, Dec. 8, 2025. Nigeria set an ambitious three-year growth target that leans heavily on the non-oil sector in Africa’s biggest oil-producing nation. Photographer: Etinosa Yvonne/Bloomberg — A vendor at a weekly market in Abuja, Nigeria.

The same speed that has impressed investors is now unsettling some of them.

As the US and Iran resumed hostilities this week, executives gathered in an Abuja conference named after Tinubu to take stock of the state of their industry. Publicly, the reforms were praised. Privately — in smaller groups and lowered voices — there’s a concern that Nigeria is also becoming less predictable.

Investments are long-term bets requiring billions of dollars and a payback period stretching across administrations. Investors need assurances that policies can be durable, surviving legislators and presidents.

That’s why Executive Order 9, which is Tinubu’s most significant diktat and directs the state-owned oil company and the regulatory agencies to remit oil and gas revenues to a federation account, has become a test case.

While some hailed it as necessary to improve state finances and transparency around the agencies that have historically been opaque, it also encroaches on aspects of a landmark petroleum-industry law that took decades of bargaining to pass.

The law was meant to provide the sector with a coherent legal and governance framework, yet it was simply overridden by a presidential order without recourse to lawmakers.

Reforms can often hand investors riches, but change subject to the whims of politicians can also take them away. — Nduka Orjinmo

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu has taken steps applauded by investors, including eliminating costly fuel subsidies. Photographer: Evaristo Sa/AFP/Getty Images — Tinubu.

What Everyone’s Reading

Nigerian equities have overtaken South Korea’s for the highest dollar-based returns this year. The African nation’s stocks have rallied on macroeconomic reforms, higher oil prices and improved foreign-exchange supply, with the naira gaining 4% against the dollar since January. That S&P Dow Jones Indices is considering upgrading the country to frontier-market status adds to investor appeal.

Egyptian inflation slowed for a third consecutive month, though new risks to US-Iran peace talks may prompt caution when the central bank decides on interest rates later on Thursday. Consumer price growth has eased since April, despite pressures from higher fuel costs from the Iran war and a weakened Egyptian pound.

Oil eased from its biggest gain since May on Wednesday as traders assessed the outlook for Middle Eastern crude supplies after fresh hostilities between the US and Iran. The US military struck Iran for a second day, and Tehran retaliated against American allies in the Persian Gulf, raising fears of a return to war.

The World Bank approved an $875 million loan for Ivory Coast to support economic growth and job creation, and signed an interim deal with Eni’s local unit and the West African nation to provide technical assistance for its burgeoning gas sector.

Morning rush hour traffic heads towards the Plateau business district of Abidjan, Ivory Coast, on Monday, May 16, 2022. Surging international food prices will hit Africa’s economies the hardest and may trigger social unrest if governments fail to cushion the blow, according to a report by Oxford Economics Africa. Photographer: Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Bloomberg — The business district of Abidjan, Ivory Coast.

The City of Johannesburg pledged to pay creditors by next week to have $219 million of government funding reinstated and is in talks about selling debt to fund upgrades to infrastructure. The Nation Treasury withheld transfers to South Africa’s economic hub because of failure to manage its finances properly, amid deteriorating services.

World Bank Sees Kenyan Growth at Weakest Since Covid on Iran War

Kenya’s economy is likely to grow at the slowest pace since the coronavirus pandemic because of the effects of the US-Israeli war on Iran, according to the World Bank.

Quote of the Week

“Life is unfair. The world is unfair.”

Hossam Hassan

Egyptian men’s World Cup football coach

Hassan was speaking after his side lost to Argentina in dramatic fashion, claiming the defending champions were favored in refereeing decisions.

Last Word

Morocco is the final African nation remaining in the World Cup and faces one of the favorites, France, in the quarter finals. Its run at the football showpiece adds to a record unbeaten streak and victory in Boston today will match its semi-final spot in Qatar four years ago. It’s no surprise then that success on the pitch has spilled over into growing influence in Moroccan politics. In this week’s Next Africa podcast, Jennifer Zabasajja asks former Moroccan star Hassan Kachloul what the Atlas Lions’ historic campaign means to fans back home.