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Rocket Lab Strengthens Case for Breakout With New Launch Pad
Written by Ryan Hasson. Published 9/3/2025.
Key Points
- Rocket Lab has displayed notable relative strength against the overall market following its false breakdown attempt near $40.
- The opening of Launch Complex 3 and progress on Neutron position the company for significant growth in medium-lift launches.
- Analysts are becoming increasingly bullish, with price targets steadily rising as confidence in Rocket Lab’s execution grows.
There's simply no slowing down the rise of Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (NASDAQ: RKLB). After a brief pullback from its 52-week high, shares tested support near $40 before regaining momentum and pushing back toward a key breakout level at $50.
This strength—especially at a time when broader markets have shown early signs of weakness—raises the question: Is RKLB setting itself up for something bigger? In many cases, a failed move lower precedes a fast rebound, and Rocket Lab's recent price action could be a textbook example.
A Failed Breakdown and Strong Relative Strength
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From a technical perspective, few setups look as bullish as RKLB right now. In August, the stock briefly dipped below its $40 support—likely spooking weaker hands—but promptly reclaimed that level, bounced off its 50-day moving average, and pushed higher. Such a false breakdown is often a bullish signal, suggesting sellers have exhausted themselves and buyers are back in control.
What makes this setup even more compelling is RKLB's relative strength versus the market. While the S&P 500 showed weakness on Friday and again early Tuesday, Rocket Lab held firm. That resilience suggests demand for the stock is strong enough to withstand near-term turbulence. Still, the $50 level remains key: a sustained break above it could set the stage for a significant rally.
Neutron and the Opening of LC-3
Perhaps the most exciting development is Rocket Lab's progress with its Neutron program. On Aug. 28, the company celebrated the official opening of Launch Complex 3 at the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport in Virginia. This new facility is dedicated to Neutron, Rocket Lab's next-generation, reusable medium-lift rocket.
Launch Complex 3 will provide the spaceport's largest orbital launch capacity ever. Neutron itself is designed to carry up to 13,000 kilograms to orbit, positioning Rocket Lab to compete in commercial satellite deployments, national security missions, and even human spaceflight over time. CEO Peter Beck emphasized that both the site and the rocket underscore the company's commitment to reliable, responsive U.S. space access.
Analysts Growing More Bullish
Wall Street has taken notice. Roth Capital recently raised its price target on Rocket Lab from $50 to $60 and reiterated a Buy rating after visiting the new LC-3 launch site. The firm noted that the necessary infrastructure for Neutron is now in place and that momentum toward a first launch appears strong.
This bullish stance is not isolated. Over the past year, the consensus price target on RKLB has climbed steadily, reflecting growing analyst confidence. Twelve months ago, the average target was $6.75; three months ago, it had risen to $25; today, it stands at $42.27, with multiple analysts maintaining Buy ratings.
Looking Ahead: Can the Strength Hold?
The key question for investors is whether Rocket Lab can sustain this momentum and clear resistance near $50—even if broader markets waver. Seasonal headwinds could weigh on equities, but RKLB's strong relative strength, bullish technical setup, and fundamental catalysts may allow it to buck the trend. Its failed breakdown at $40 and subsequent recovery add weight to the breakout case, while the opening of LC-3 and Neutron's progress provide solid fundamental backing. Given its resilience and track record of delivery, a decisive move above $50 could be just around the corner.
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