Thursday, January 23, 2025

Brussels Edition: Courting Trump

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.Europe is quietly trying
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Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Europe is quietly trying to nudge Donald Trump's new administration to commit to participating in security guarantees for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told us that the US would have to contribute troops to any peacekeeping-type mission if it's going to be credible — and Kyiv's allies broadly agree. We're told the early signals suggest the US may be on board but would expect Europe to provide the bulk of the soldiers. Everyone is watching closely to see how Trump will approach Moscow, but his recent comments have heartened diplomats. Trump has threatened to pile even more economic pressure on Russia if it won't engage seriously on peace talks and yesterday indicated he's seeking to partner with China to try to reach a settlement.

Saim Saeed

What's Happening

Tech Warning | Trump lambasted the EU in remarks by video link to the World Economic Forum in Davos yesterday, criticizing the bloc's regulations and its fines of American tech companies and calling them a "form of taxation." Brussels was among a list of targets, including oil-producing nations for keeping prices high, Wall Street institutions for allegedly denying services to conservatives, and trade deficits with the EU and China.

Buying Time | The EU is preparing to resume its case against China at the World Trade Organization over allegations of economic coercion targeting Lithuania, we're told. The complaint was set to lapse by the end of the week, a development that would likely anger the Trump administration.

After Draghi | The commission will propose establishing an advanced US-style research-project agency to invest in strategic technologies as part of a drive to boost the bloc's industry, we've learned. The Competitive Compass, due next month and  meant to provide a five-year plan on how to compete with the US and China, will also call for building new aggregated infrastructure for artificial intelligence.

After Brexit | EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said the bloc could be open to the UK joining a pan-European customs program that also takes in parts of the Middle East and Africa. It's unclear whether Britain's Labour-led government is interested, with ministers offering conflicting reactions.

Schengen Challenge | Conservative chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz promised to overhaul Germany's immigration policy, including imposing permanent border checks that could jeopardize the EU's common travel area. Merz — in campaign mode ahead of next month's election — also warned domestic companies against investing in China.

Around Europe

Big Bill | Volkswagen estimates it will lose around €1.5 billion as a result of strict EU emissions rules. The losses will likely stem from potential fines for blowing past the emissions target, and from being required to sell more electric cars at the expense of more lucrative combustion engine models, the company said.

Wealth Tax | The French government wants to raise €2 billion from high earners this year, ministry officials told us, part of a package of around €52 billion in spending cuts and tax increases aimed at bringing the country's public finances under control. The new budget is a less ambitious attempt to shrink the country's deficit after the previous government's attempts led to a swift collapse.

Crowdsourcing Cuts | Iceland is looking to its citizens for ideas on how to balance its budget. The Social Democrat-led government opened an online portal for suggestions from the public, with 1% of the population already having taken part. The country's new government, sworn in last month, is grappling with a budget deficit, inflation and elevated borrowing costs.

New Leader | Micheal Martin of the Fianna Fail party was voted in as Ireland's new prime minister yesterday and will lead the country until November 2027, at which point coalition partners will take over as part of the government deal. The vote was held a day later than expected because of a row in parliament between independent lawmakers supporting the incoming government and the opposition Sinn Fein party.

Crypto Kidnapping | The co-founder of French crypto-wallet start-up Ledger was liberated yesterday following a police operation. David Balland, whose company makes hardware wallets for crypto investors, was kidnapped the day before, with his captors demanding millions in digital currency as a ransom.

Chart of the Day

Inflation concerns are staging a comeback, raising questions over when the European Central Bank may need to pause or halt interest-rate reductions in the spring, according to our latest survey of economists. The base case for four quarter-point cuts in 2025 remains in place, with respondents aligned on moves next week and in March. Come April, though, views start to diverge, leaving year-end forecasts for the deposit rate — now at 3% — between 1.25% and 2.5%.

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 11 a.m. ECB President Christine Lagarde participates in panel discussion at World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland
  • 11:30 a.m. EU foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas news conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan
  • 2 p.m. Equality Commissioner Hadja Lahbib visits Civil Protection Headquarters in Rome
  • Commission Executive Vice President Raffaele Fitto visits packaging firm Stora Enso in Finland

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Brussels Edition: Courting Trump

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.Europe is qu...