Sunday, September 1, 2024

Brussels Edition: Scholz shellacked

It was another brutal setback for Olaf Scholz and his embattled coalition

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

It was another brutal setback for Olaf Scholz and his embattled coalition. The far-right and extreme left took more than 60% of the vote in the eastern state of Thuringia and half in Saxony. The Alternative for Germany scored the first victory for a far-right party in a German state ballot since World War II — although it's still unlikely any other parties will allow them to form a government. Scholz's three-way coalition, meanwhile, was crushed, with the parties pulling in less than 15% combined in each state. With another regional ballot in Brandenburg three weeks from now expected to bring a similar result, a major turnaround will be needed to avoid disaster in national elections due in just over a year. 

Kevin Whitelaw

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What's Happening

Job Interviews | Emmanuel Macron will meet today with Bernard Cazeneuve, a former senior official in the Socialist Party who previously served as premier, as the French president closes in on announcing who the next prime minister will be. He will also meet with former Socialist President Francois Hollande and Republican ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy, we're told.

Power Loss | Russia's massive attacks on Ukraine's power grid have forced many to consider their options as a grim winter without heating looms. Last week's air raids on Kyiv and other cities across the country were the largest since Russia's full-scale invasion — the capital came under a new attack early today — and now authorities need to restore damaged power plants and find a way to defend them.

Airline Alliance | Deutsche Lufthansa AG Chief Executive Officer Carsten Spohr is set to meet with Portuguese government officials on Monday as the German airline group weighs a possible investment in state-owned airline TAP SA, according to people familiar with the matter.

Paying Dividends | Europe's biggest lenders are on track to return more than €50 billion to shareholders for the first time ever, highlighting the boost from higher interest rates. The unprecedented amount of money handed to investors is a key reason why European banks have gone from perennial stock laggards to some of the region's best performers.

Around Europe

Caffeine Rush | Coffee cargoes are flooding the EU as traders rush to stock up on beans ahead of new environmental rules that kick in at the end of the year. The EU's Deforestation Regulation will require importers to prove that commodities like coffee, beef, cocoa and timber don't contribute to destroying forest land, and some supply disruption is inevitable. 

No Arrest | Vladimir Putin received assurances ahead of a planned visit to Mongolia that he won't be arrested for alleged war crimes under a warrant from the International Criminal Court, we're told. Tomorrow's  visit will be the first by Putin to an ICC member state since the warrant was issued in March last year over the abduction of children from parts of Ukraine. 

Stock Slippage | The promise of European stocks gaining an edge over their US counterparts is fading after a brief spell of outperformance, as concerns of an economic slowdown weigh on the outlook for earnings. Where Europe stood to gain from a shift away from big tech stocks, investors are instead turning to undervalued sectors of the US market.

Heavy Lift | A Dutch company erected the world's strongest crane to help meet soaring demand for massive new energy infrastructure — including giant wind turbines. The crane, built by heavy-lifting firm Mammoet for tens of millions of dollars, is among the latest bets that rising energy consumption will require huge new equipment for years to come.

Chart of the Day

Chinese automakers registered fewer electric cars across Europe in July, as new provisional tariffs amplified the impact of a broader slump in EV sales. Brands including SAIC Motor Corp.'s MG and BYD accounted for 9.9% of EV registrations in the region, down from 10.2% in July 2023, according to researcher Dataforce. Carmakers are still adjusting to the introduction of tariffs on July 5 that raised duties on Chinese-made EVs to as high as 48%. 

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 9:45 a.m. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen speaks to reporters with Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob while visiting flood-damaged areas in Slovenia
  • 2 p.m. Von der Leyen speaks at Bled Strategic Forum, then participates in panel discussion with Golob and Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic
  • 3:05 p.m. Climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra delivers speech at the Eindhoven University of Technology in the Netherlands

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