Monday, September 2, 2024

Brussels Edition: Kyiv's $50 Billion Question

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.The Commission is finali

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

The Commission is finalizing a proposal to fund the EU's share of a planned $50 billion loan to Ukraine by using the proceeds of immobilized Russian assets. But officials are mulling whether the bloc's proposal should just refer to the part of the total not covered by other G-7 members, rather than a specific amount. The understanding was that the EU and the US would contribute similar amounts, around $20 billion. But Washington is demanding a new open-ended sanctions regime for the assets to ensure the windfall profits remain available. This is a near-impossible ask given Hungary's position and puts US participation at risk, at least for now. Some European officials want to move ahead as early as this week to push for American participation since Ukraine badly needs the money and the US presidential elections in November could render things more difficult.

Jorge Valero

What's Happening

Dangerous Turn | Ukraine's allies expect Iran to deliver ballistic missiles to Russia imminently in spite of repeated warnings and diplomatic efforts, we're told. Such a step would likely be met with additional sanctions on Iran, though their effectiveness remains uncertain given the measures already targeting Tehran.

Clock Ticking | French President Emmanuel Macron met with his predecessors Nicolas Sarkozy and Francois Hollande yesterday, while also holding talks with ex-Socialist premier Bernard Cazeneuve and planning to speak with conservative politician Xavier Bertrand. He continued to seek a viable name for prime minister to end weeks of uncertainty and meet the EU's budget deadline next month.

Storm Gathering | Decisions at the ECB are set to get a lot more contentious once interest rates fall to about 3%, we're told. While the next two or three reductions from the current level of 3.75% are unlikely to cause major friction, a clash is likely to emerge over price outlook and the point where monetary policy stops restraining economic growth. 

No Parity | Belgium put forward Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib as a candidate for the Commission, completing the 26 names that will be part of the college led by Ursula von der Leyen. Although her choice helps to slightly correct the gender imbalance, it is still far from the parity that the president was aspiring for.

Around Europe

Populists Surge | The results in the two eastern German states this weekend showed that the opposition is growing to policies aimed at cleaning up Europe's biggest economy. In Thuringia, the new BSW alliance of the far left is set to play a key role in keeping AfD out of power despite the far-right party's victory.

Losing Gas | Volkswagen is considering unprecedented factory closures in Germany, the company said, setting up a showdown with powerful unions. 
The move is a sign likely part of a broader reckoning for European carmakers as they've lost ground in trying to compete against Tesla and Chinese rivals in the electric vehicle race.

Looking Elsewhere | Turkey has formally asked to join the BRICS group,  seeking to forge new ties beyond the EU and Western allies, we're told. Ankara has been frustrated with the slow progress to improve its ties with the Europeans as Brussels works on a strategy to bring the two sides closer.

Sailing F-1 | Few people know that America's Cup, the world's oldest international sporting trophy, involves some of the world's richest people betting hundreds of millions of dollars on turning sailboats into something akin to racing cars. One of its wealthy participants told us the inside story.

Chart of the Day

The total volume of risky loans to heavily indebted companies hit €204 billion in the EU through August, more than twice the amount in the same period last year, according to our data. That's the second-highest level of leveraged finance in more than a decade in spite of the ECB's efforts to rein in the practice. JPMorgan Chase is the leading bank for European leveraged finance, followed by Goldman Sachs, BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank.

Today's Agenda

  • EU's highest court to rule on whether the Commission had right to review Illumina's acquisition of cancer-testing company Grail
  • EU internal market chief Thierry Breton meets US Senate Finance Chairman Ron Wyden
  • General Affairs Council informal meeting continues in Budapest

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