Sunday, June 2, 2024

Brussels Edition: Environmental damage

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.As campaigning for the E

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

As campaigning for the European parliamentary elections enters its final week, polls suggest right-wing parties are gaining ground, capitalizing on widespread discontent over the cost of living — and the cost of being green. The world's most ambitious climate plan has become a political liability amid discontent over everything from boiler bans to sustainable farming directives. Its architect, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, may need to woo the likes of Italy's right-wing prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, to secure the backing she needs for a second term. Investors are placing their bets on just what it will mean for everything from electric vehicles to defense stocks.

John Ainger

What's Happening

German Floods | Chancellor Olaf Scholz plans to travel to the southern German state of Bavaria, which was hit by severe flooding over the weekend that disrupted transportation, forced several thousand people from their homes and pushed emergency services to their limits. Almost half of Germany was placed under flood warnings, including the entire Rhine River, one of Europe's key trade links.

Mapping EUDR | The EU's law to halt deforestation, or EUDR, is set to have far-reaching consequences. Some $110 billion of trade annually and economies across six continents will be affected as suppliers get to grips with the reality of Europe's drive to be greener. Read our Big Take about the race to map the world.

Tariff Costs | EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles would likely cost Beijing nearly $4 billion in trade with the bloc, according to a new analysis by Germany's Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The number of EVs imported to the EU would drop by a quarter — some 125,000 vehicles — if Brussels were to impose a 20% import tariff, the study showed. A decision is expected soon and we can expect a retaliation

Telegram Risks | Vladimir Putin and "other hostile actors" are able to abuse a lack of regulation for the Telegram platform to spread fake news in the EU's eastern nations, Vera Jourova, Commission vice president for values and transparency, told us. Here's how the company is able to skirt the bloc's rules.

Power Enigma | Something strange is going on in Europe's power markets: Prices keep dropping below zero. For consumers it means getting free electricity to heat their homes or charge their vehicles. But investors are fretting over how much more they can build into the $800 billion market before returns start to suffer.

Around Europe

Rearming Germany | The German defense minister is trying to persuade the world that his country is serious about becoming a military force again. And his views — that the country needs to prepare for the possibility of war — are resonating with the public. He just needs to work on his boss

New Caledonia | Emmanuel Macron had hoped a presidential visit to the French island in the middle of the Pacific Ocean would help restore order after weeks of violence. Instead, it proved counter-productive and undercuts France's ambition to be a global power in a resource-rich region that China is muscling in on. 

Icelandic Victor | Icelandic entrepreneur and investor Halla Tomasdottir was elected as the Nordic country's president in a victory over former Prime Minister Katrin Jakobsdottir. She is the second woman to serve as Iceland's head of state, with her election coming just as the country is focused on another volcanic eruption

French Revamp | France is counting on further reforms to bring the budget deficit under control, Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said in the wake of S&P's decision to cut the nation's credit rating. Meanwhile, the country is set to pass a law this week that would make it cheaper for banks to fire traders, an attempt to attract more financial services companies. 

Chart of the Day

The ECB might have subdued inflation without much of a recession, and raised borrowing costs while containing investor worries about national debts. But such wins will be fleeting if politicians don't deliver growth-enhancing reforms and public-finance repair — letting the euro zone slide ever further into irrelevance. "Without a major jolt, the EU will become a much-diminished global power, leaving the US battling it out with China for economic supremacy," said Jamie Rush, chief European economist for Bloomberg Economics. 

Today's Agenda

  • Commission Vice President Margrethe Vestager participates in a State Aid High Level Forum
  • Cohesion Commissioner Elisa Ferreira delivers a speech at the Bundestag EU Affairs Committee in Berlin
  • Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi participates in 3rd High Level Political Forum in Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

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