Crypto News: Supply Lines: Ozempic's threat to sugar

From the threat Ozempic poses to sugar demand to extreme weather endangering crops, here's a roundup of the latest key food stories from around the world:

Menace to Sugar?

Sugar traders could be overlooking the next big demand hit. As Bloomberg's Ilena Peng and Dayanne Sousa reported this week, those at a recent annual industry event in New York didn't appear to pay much attention to the issue of consumption — even when an executive at consumer researcher Circana warned that weight-loss drugs risk having a big impact in the future.

Walmart has already said that drugs such as Ozempic are impacting food sales. They'll result in a decline in calorie consumption in the US of 1.5% to 2.5% by 2035, with a drop of as much as 5% in the consumption of sweets like baked goods, confectionery and soda, according to Morgan Stanley.

But so far, the sugar industry hasn't spent significant time estimating consumption. That's partly because shifts in demand are small relative to production swings. And sugar consumption is still growing in emerging markets. That means the big impact could still be some time down the line, as pharmaceutical companies try to make the medications more accessible and affordable.

Weather Threat

Weather is a constant wild card for agricultural markets. Already this year, the cocoa industry has been rattled following poor conditions in West Africa, while dryness and frosts have hurt Russian and Ukrainian wheat crops, sending prices for the staple grain soaring.

In India, scorching heat has posed risks to people and farming, though an earlier-than-usual arrival of the monsoon is bringing some relief and is crucial for crops like sugar and rice.

Climate change is intensifying extreme weather globally, and odds are growing that 2024 will become the hottest year in history. That risks curbing crop yields, sparking more destructive wildfires and parching waterways — endangering efforts to produce food and deliver it around the world.

—Nicholas Larkin in London

Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Source: GlobalData

Health-conscious drinkers | Worth $13 billion and counting, brands from Heineken to Guinness, and now Corona Cero, see a cohort of health-conscious consumers — many young, others older and wanting out of a booze culture — whose wallets they can tap. No- or low-alcohol beer is a tiny corner of the market. But it's had an annual compound growth rate of 3.6% since 2018, versus 0.3% for alcoholic beer. (Read the full story here.)

China is sending record quantities of soybean meal abroad, as a shrinking number of pigs and weak demand for pork force processors to export their surplus animal feed.
Five major Australian beef producers banned from exporting meat to China will be allowed to resume the trade immediately, in the latest move by Beijing to normalize economic ties with Canberra.
Stalin, Putin and climate change inadvertently turned Norway's most desperate fishing spot into a global seafood capital.
The Hunts Point Produce Market supplies about 60% of New York's fresh groceries, worth about $2 billion a year. It's also a major polluter past due for an overhaul.
Starbucks baristas say they are confronting an alarming issue: Drink orders are coming in fast, but there are fewer people to prepare them.
Russia is stepping up its bid to control even more of its crucial grain industry — potentially giving it greater power over exports — just as worries mount over global supply.

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A draft of the long-awaited US Farm Bill contains unexpected measures to improve internet connectivity in rural communities, which would lower one barrier to adopting precision agriculture technologies including intelligent vehicles, BloombergNEF writes.
Cocoa-harvest losses could extend as an increasing amount of aging and sick trees add to farmers' struggles, despite an anticipated improvement in weather conditions, translating into a fourth consecutive deficit in 2025, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints.
For freight dashboards, see {BI RAIL}, {BI TRCK} and {BI SHIP} and {BI 3PLS}
Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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