Thursday, May 30, 2024

How NOT Cutting Rates Has Become Wildly Bullish

markets are hanging on any interest rate hopes they can get
 
   
     
   
 
MAY 30, 2024
   
TUCCI’S TWO CENTS
How NOT Cutting Rates Has Become Wildly Bullish
 

Earlier this week, both Nvidia and the NASDAQ composite inked new record highs.

The tech-heavy NASDAQ broke through 17,000 for the first time and the king of AI, Nvidia, continued its post-earnings upward tear to reach a record price of $1,140 per share.

Today it’s trading even higher. Nvidia is now up 30% in the last month alone!

In the broader market, stocks have shifted back and forth. Yesterday the S&P closed flat, and the Dow drifted about .55% lower.

This shift back and forth can be mostly attributed to two things:
1. Waning optimism for potential rate cuts
2. AI and high hopes for the technology

We will get the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index on Friday to provide more insight into this situation…

We already know the talking points:

Many Fed chairs have been beating the drum that we must see inflation cool drastically prior to any changes in interest rate policies. One by one, the Fed chairs have jumped on board to agree with this sentiment, with Minneapolis Fed Chair Neel Kashkari the latest to join the troupe.

To me, it’s all noise.


I think the carrot of interest rate cuts at the end of the proverbial stick is just that…

A way to keep investors constantly hoping for good news without actually delivering anything.

— Nate Tucci
 
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SCOTT WELSH’S TICKER TALES
Hartford is Hot (HIG)
 

Where does growth come from?

It comes from obvious places and forgotten places.

Growth comes from suddenly-demanded AI chips and a disruptive new trend/fad. That one we hear about all the time.

But growth also comes from boring companies that everyone needs forever.

And every now and then, boring becomes hot.

And we’re seeing that in Hartford Financial (HIG).

Here’s the chart:

 
 

It made a fantastic move from last October through April.

And then it pulled back slightly as the market cooled off. 

But a break above $103.64 could lead to another big surge.

Nothing boring about that.

We’ll keep an eye on it.

Happy trading,
— Scott Welsh

P.S. As a reminder, these plays are based on my longer-term Weinstein Stage Analysis method. The charts above use weekly candles and a 30 week simple moving average. For details on this method, see my explanation on this Ask The Pros episode starting at timestamp 20:45.

 
   
 

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I Can't Wait For The 10-Year To Hit 5%

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