Crypto News: 5 things to start your day: Europe

A happy Friday! It's a big day for price data on both sides of the Atlantic, while yen traders look to Japan for confirmation of intervention. And a guilty verdict for Trump adds a twist to US elections. Here's what people are talking about.

Today's euro-zone inflation data will offer clues on how far and fast the European Central Bank will go after it embarks on a much-anticipated easing cycle next week. Inflation probably quickened a touch in May after two months at 2.4%. A Bloomberg survey shows economists are dialing back their expectations on ECB interest-rate cuts. Looking at the markets, European equity futures are poised for a third weekly loss, with the euro a tad lower against the US dollar.

Hours later, investors will shift their attention to the other side of the pond for the Federal Reserve's favorite price gauge, after a report showed Thursday the US economy grew at softer pace. Economic cooling could bolster the case for the Fed to start easing this year. And here are the latest Fed voices for investors to digest going into the release — John Williams said he expects inflation to continue falling in the second half of this year, while Lorie Logan said high rates may not be restraining the economy as much as policymakers anticipated.

Donald Trump was found guilty in the first criminal trial of a former US president in the nation's history. The verdict could reshape the political landscape ahead of November, with sentencing set for July 11, just days before the GOP convention. Trump is expected to appeal. For traders, the question now is how the verdict will impact markets that are already starting to prepare for the 2024 US elections — in which Trump is all but certain to face off with President Joe Biden. In the meantime, a growing number of financial elites are throwing their weight behind Trump.

Lawmakers in Washington are reacting to the verdict, take a listen here.

Technology shares have come under further pressure, with Nasdaq equity futures holding losses early on Friday. Wall Street traders sent stocks down and bonds up on Thursday following the softer US growth data. Also, US officials have slowed the issuing of licenses to chipmakers such as Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices for large-scale AI accelerator shipments to the Middle East, according to people familiar with the matter. Separately, Dell Technologies sank in late hours as its revenue increase failed to impress investors.

There's another set of figures that currency traders — especially for the yen — will be keen for on Friday, as they have been wondering if Japan intervened to prop up the Japanese currency during the last month. The nation's Ministry of Finance — which has declined to confirm or deny any intervention — is scheduled to issue data at 7 p.m. in Tokyo that will answer the question. A comparison of deposits at the Bank of Japan and broker forecasts indicate that the country spent about ¥9.4 trillion ($60 billion) during two intense bouts of purchasing on April 29 and May 1.

Besides euro-area inflation, we also have prices data from France and Italy, along with economic growth readings from Italy and Turkey. The UK releases house prices and mortgage approvals.

This is what's caught our eye over the past 24 hours.

Citadel Securities taps Goldman's Esposito as new president
Early UK election adds to bull case for London markets this year
Banks funnel billions more into private credit
Index pricing glitch causes minor disruptions for US equities
China factory activity shrinks in surprise hit to growth outlook
BofA's investment banking on track for 15% growth: CEO

Diverging rate expectations — that the Bank of England will keep rates on hold while the European Central Bank begins cutting — were behind the euro trading at near the weakest in two years versus the pound this week.

The ECB is widely expected to begin cutting rates in June, while traders now price in almost zero chance of that in the UK. They don't expect the first reduction from the BoE until the fourth quarter.

Still, the eurozone currency has fared better against the dollar, despite expectations for a cut from the Federal Reserve having recently faded.

Looking further ahead, the divergence could be poised to grow if market bets are to be believed.

Two full 25 basis point cuts are currently priced in from the ECB by the end of the year. That's only one more than is seen from the Fed, with bets even showing slightly more conviction that'll come in November than is the case for the Bank of England.

Morwenna Coniam is an editor for Bloomberg News' Markets Today team, based in London.