Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Mexico awaits first female president

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Claudia Sheinbaum takes office today as Mexico's first female president, with as many questions as answers about the kind of administration she'll run.

She hasn't had it easy since scoring a landslide victory in June. Her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, used the time to push through a set of controversial constitutional bills that changed the political landscape.

Through it all, she remained loyal to AMLO, as the now-former president is known. Business leaders shocked at his overhaul of the judiciary would have liked her to come out with a clear line to soothe the markets, as would the military.

She didn't and instead repeated the official mantra that all was well. Many are waiting for her inauguration speech to learn where she truly stands on key issues.

WATCH: Hundreds of protesters broke into Mexico's Senate as lawmakers were debating AMLO's proposal to overhaul the judiciary.

Sheinbaum is walking a tightrope. She can't afford to break from AMLO or his more contentious policies, nor does she seem to want to. But her cabinet appointments suggest she may be more market-friendly and likely to speed the transition to clean energy in the oil-producing nation.

In that sense, Sheinbaum's in a similar bind to US Vice President Kamala Harris, seeking to succeed her boss and mentor while forging her own leadership path.

She faces equally pressing decisions.

Mexico's business community is desperate for signs from Sheinbaum that she'll help attract foreign investment by addressing water, security and power issues that plague the country's north.

Then there's the growing security crisis: AMLO leaves behind the bloodiest administration on record, with nearly 200,000 homicides during his presidency and criminal cartels running rampant.

A new US president will doubtless present a fresh set of challenges.

Many Mexicans hope that during her speech Sheinbaum thanks AMLO and makes it clear that from here on out, it's her show and she needs the space to operate freely.

Only time will tell if the former president will grant it to her. — Andrea Navarro

Claudia Sheinbaum. Photographer: Stephania Corpi/Bloomberg

Israel sent soldiers into southern Lebanon following days of intense air strikes, escalating its weeks-long drive to weaken Hezbollah and raising the risk of a wider regional conflict in defiance of international calls for a cease-fire. The Iran-backed militant group, whose leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed on Friday, responded by firing rockets into central Israel.

Israeli shelling near the border with Lebanon today. Source: AFP/Getty Images

NATO was reeling a few years ago after being slammed by Donald Trump and characterized by French President Emmanuel Macron as suffering "brain death." Now, after it expanded to counter the threat from Russia, the challenge of maintaining the Cold War alliance as a geopolitical force is in the hands of Dutchman Mark Rutte, who became secretary general of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization today as the 32-nation defense pact enters a pivotal period.

Business chiefs are the most pessimistic about Britain's economy since late 2022, when the country was reeling from the fallout of Liz Truss's short spell as Conservative prime minister, amid fears of looming tax hikes and workplace regulations from the new Labour government. The administration in neighboring Ireland, flush with cash from tax receipts from multinational firms, will present a giveaway budget today to woo voters ahead of an election.

Hurricane Helene's trail of destruction across the US southeast presented Trump and Harris with a crucial political test just five weeks before Election Day, altering campaign plans and dragging politics into the emergency response. With more than 100 people dead and hundreds unaccounted for, the natural disaster in a region that includes two swing states comes during an already tight presidential election.

Veronica Dragalin, a former US federal prosecutor who heads the Anti-Corruption Prosecution Office in Moldova, says almost a dozen staff resigned rather than confront the vetting process demanded by the European Union as part of the former Soviet country's bid to join the 27-nation bloc. The fact that so many were wary of clearing that ethics hurdle speaks volumes about the challenges Dragalin faces in fighting corruption within the judiciary, let alone outside it.

Dockworkers have walked out of every major port on the US East and Gulf coasts, marking the beginning of a strike that could ripple through the world's largest economy and cause political turmoil just weeks before the election.

Ukrainian prosecutors said at least seven civilians were killed and three others injured in a Russian artillery attack on the southern city of Kherson.

Former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and his two sons may seek roles in the Senate as the family fights for political influence in the 2025 midterm elections, amid a widening rift with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

Libya is preparing to restore oil production after two rival governments in the North African country overcame differences that caused the flow of petroleum to be halted or disrupted last month.

While today's debate between the two vice presidential candidates, JD Vance and Tim Walz, will likely be contentious, with splashes of the vitriol that has characterized the 2024 campaign, voters may not come away with a dramatic moment to be replayed in their memories — and on their screens.

Yet one such moment did occur — in October 1988 during the debate with Senator Dan Quayle of Indiana, the Republican vice presidential nominee, and Senator Lloyd Bentsen of Texas, his Democratic opponent.

When Quayle asserted that he had "as much experience in the Congress as Jack Kennedy did," Bentsen shook his head and turned to him with a searing response: "Senator, I served with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy." Wild applause immediately erupted.

As much as that rebuke is remembered — partly because it's revived every four years — it didn't change the course of the election. The following month, Michael Dukakis and Bentsen lost to George HW Bush and Quayle.

One person to watch today: Former President Jimmy Carter, who left office in 1981, turns 100.

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Trump has touted baseline 20% tariffs on all imports, and as much as 60% if they come from China, threatening American trade with the world's second-biggest economy. Bloomberg Economics says that using a World Trade Organization model, a maximal version of Trump's tariff plan would wipe 0.8% from US gross domestic product and push prices up 4.3% by 2028 if China alone retaliates.

After doubling over the past two decades, the population of Rwanda's capital is expected to do so again over the next quarter of a century as rural citizens continue to flood urban centers. The runaway expansion makes Kigali one of the fastest-growing cities globally while creating a challenge for developers and planning authorities. To maximize space, they're building apartments in double- and triple-story blocks for prospective owners who value standalone homes but have limited means to buy them.

The population of Kigali roughly doubled in the past two decades. Photographer: J. Countess/Getty Images

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The London Rush: Handbags at dawn

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Hi, I'm Louise from Bloomberg UK's breaking news team, catching you up on this morning's business stories.

Billionaire Mike Ashley isn't known to shy away from a fight. His retail empire Frasers has a reputation for its willingness to enter into boardroom battles — the backdrop to a trophy cabinet including Sports Direct, Jack Wills, Matches Fashion, Evans Cycles and more.

Get your popcorn: another heated takeover battle may be about to start.

Mulberry has rejected an £83 million takeover approach from Frasers, saying it is confident new CEO Andrea Baldo can turn the ship around. The handbag maker also intends to push on with a proposed £10 million share issue — even though it angered Frasers, which owns 37% of the company, due to a lack of advanced warning.

Shares dipped, adding to an almost 40% fall over the past year, partly on a global slump in luxury spending.

Will the offer rejection be enough to keep Frasers away?

In its own words on Monday, Frasers said it "will not accept another Debenhams situation where a perfectly viable business is run into administration".

What's your take? Ping me on X, LinkedIn or drop me an email at lmoon13@bloomberg.net. Oh, and do subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted business journalism on the UK, and beyond.

Pfizer has raised £2.4 billion as it trims its stake in Haleon, the company that was formed by merging the US drug giant and GSK's consumer health units. GSK has already fully exited, reaping almost £4 billion.

While noting ongoing economic uncertainty, Greggs seems alright. Sales rose and it's on track to open up to 160 net new shops this year. At this rate, there will soon be 3,000 Greggs in the UK (imagine...)

Berry Bros. & Rudd, the UK's oldest wine and spirits merchant, is expanding into the wine auction business after 325 years. The first online sale will be later this month with 500 lots. Cheers to that.

But when it comes to the City, looming tax hikes and regulations mean business chiefs are the most pessimistic they've been about the economy since late 2022, just after Liz Truss's short (yet memorable) stint as prime minister.

Israel starts 'targeted ground raids' in Lebanon, despite calls for restraint.
Major strikes shut ports with capacity to handle half of US trade volumes.
Michael Dell unloads $1.2 billion in second big Dell stock sale, after AI boost.

Here's your daily snap analysis from Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog:

The latest shop-price index from the British Retail Consortium shows overall prices are falling, but dig into the numbers and there's reason for a little caution.

Overall deflation in prices was driven entirely by clothing and furniture. As the data was collected at the start of September, that's likely to be end-of-season discounts. The question for retailers, on the high street or those selling bigger ticket items for the home, is how much discounting had to happen to clear inventory after a summer when the weather didn't play ball.

And food prices were shown to be rising in the report. Though there is very fierce competition between grocers in the UK, some of the price increases are out of their control, notably those driven by agricultural commodities suffering from a changing climate — think cooking oils, cocoa and coffee.

Still, in spite of some dips in confidence in recent surveys, consumers have remained very resilient to cost-of-living pressures. Bake-Off and Strictly are both on, so winter is officially coming. Now we'll see if the resilience holds up as a greater burden from energy prices butts up against still-solid wage growth and a potential rate cut in November. And, of course, the minor matter of the budget.

— Sam Unsted

Check Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog for updates all day.

JD Sports reports interim numbers. It last month reiterated full year guidance on a return to growth in the second quarter, so Bloomberg Intelligence says the focus now will be on whether athleisure demand is rebounding in the autumn-winter season.

The final blast furnace at Port Talbot closed yesterday, bringing more than 100 years of traditional steelmaking in south Wales to an end. It leaves two blast furnaces in the UK, which are also set to close in the transition to greener steelmaking. Where are those remaining two?

Port Talbot steel works. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

[Yesterday's answer: Harry Potter's Professor McGonagall, played by the late Dame Maggie Smith, taught transfiguration at Hogwarts.]

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Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Mexico awaits first female president

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LAST CHANCE At The System That’s Raking In $34k Every 2 Weeks…

LAST CHANCE At This Proven Strategy For Life-Changing Trading

ClankApp - BTC - 221,727,520 $ just move.

Transaction alert for BTC

The London Rush: Handbags at dawn

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