🌅 Pre-Market Pulse
S&P Futures
7,671.75
▼ -8.50 (-0.11%)
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Nasdaq Futures
28,845.50
▼ -101.50 (-0.35%)
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Dow Futures
52,542.00
▲ +131.00 (+0.25%)
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10Y Treasury
4.99%
▼ -0.06%
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US Dollar
101.64
▼ -0.12 (-0.12%)
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Bitcoin
$77,575
▼ -$213 (-0.27%)
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Data as of 7:06 AM ET
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Good morning! Happy Friday. Futures are split this morning: the Dow is up, while the Nasdaq slips after Amazon and Intel revived the question nobody in tech wants to hear, which is how much all this AI spending will actually earn. Grab your coffee, because this is what matters before the bell.
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👀 What to Watch Today Big Tech earnings set the tone today. Nasdaq futures are down 0.35% as results from Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) add to worries about AI spending. The concern is less about whether these companies can spend and more about how long investors will wait for the payoff. Expect that debate to hang over chip and cloud names all session.
Inflation also matters. New data shows a key measure of price pressures jumped, which challenges Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's view that the economy can grow fast without overheating. If traders decide the Fed has less room than it thinks, rate-sensitive growth stocks could stay under pressure.
Energy is the third storyline. Chevron (CVX) beat estimates, and analysts now see Brent averaging above $90 in 2026, so oil names could pull in fresh money while tech cools off.
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🌏 Overnight Recap Treasury yields fell to multiweek lows in Asia after a busy week of central bank decisions. The 10-year is at 4.99%, down 6 basis points, and the 5-year dropped 7 basis points to 4.80%. The dollar index slipped to 101.64, and Bitcoin eased 0.27% to $77,575.
Europe offered mixed signals. An ECB survey sees inflation rising in the coming quarters, and TTF natural gas climbed back above 100 euros per megawatt-hour on Middle East tensions and colder weather. That combination is uncomfortable for European policymakers.
On the deal front, UniCredit pledged financing for German companies as part of its tie-up with Commerzbank (CRZBY), which looks like an effort to win over Berlin. Tesco (TSCDY) agreed to sell its Czech and Slovak businesses to Ahold Delhaize (ADRNY) for about $1.9 billion.
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📊 Pre-Market Movers Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) are the main drags on Nasdaq futures this morning, as their results feed fears that AI capital spending is getting ahead of returns. Other megacaps with big AI budgets could be pulled down with them.
Chevron (CVX) beat earnings estimates as refining profits surged on higher diesel prices, which climbed after Ukraine and Iran hit refineries in Russia and the Middle East. The catch is that Chevron expects downtime and turnarounds to cut fourth-quarter upstream output by 175,000 to 225,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Watch whether traders focus on the beat or the softer guidance.
In Europe, Tesco (TSCDY), Ahold Delhaize (ADRNY), and Commerzbank (CRZBY) are in focus after their deal news.
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🔍 Today's Watchlist
- AMZN and INTC: see whether AI spending fears stay with these two or spread across megacap tech after the open.
- Inflation reaction: the hotter price data tests the Warsh Fed's not-too-hot view, so watch how rate-cut bets shift.
- Refiners and energy: surging diesel margins lifted CVX, and other refiners could get the same boost.
- 10-year yield near 5%: a sustained move below that level would help valuations even with inflation concerns around.
- Brent and European gas: forecasts above $90 and TTF above 100 euros keep energy-driven inflation a live risk.
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🎯 The Morning Playbook Today's market is split. Money appears to be moving out of AI-heavy tech and into energy and value names, which explains why Dow futures are up while the Nasdaq is down. Don't chase the first move. Wait to see if dip buyers show up for megacaps after the first hour.
Watch the 10-year near 5%. Lower yields would normally help tech, so if growth stocks keep falling anyway, the AI spending worry is the bigger force right now.
One more thing to keep in mind: AI spending fears come and go, but this one is a reminder that markets eventually expect big investments to pay off. Have a great Friday.
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