Crypto News: No common ground

Good morning. Markets wobble as Donald Trump and Iran find no common ground. AI safety worries deepen. And the fight for the Senate is getting seriously pricey. Listen to the day’s top stories.

— Lucy Meakin

Market Snapshot
S&P 500 Futures	7,762.00	-0.5%
Nasdaq 100 Futures	30,583.00	-1.0%
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index	1,214.56	+0.1%
Market data as of 06:52 AM ET. Data is subject to provider delays.	Your watchlist

Iran stuck to its seven-day proposal for reopening the crucial Strait of Hormuz, saying it won’t soften its conditions, while Donald Trump sent mixed signals about his willingness to reach a deal. He told Axios that Tehran has overplayed its hand but added that he expects negotiations to resume this week. Adding to tensions, UK police are investigating a potential terror plot after five men were arrested near an air base used in US strikes against Iran.

The jitters reverberated through markets, sending brent crude prices back up through $108 a barrel and reigniting inflation worries. Treasuries resumed a selloff that pushed yields to multiyear highs last week, while US stock futures slumped.

The Bond Market Getting Closer to Sounding Alarm on Economy

The bond market is on the brink of signaling that a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes will start shifting the narrative toward the risk that the US economy stalls out.

Trump said he is still looking “very seriously” at implementing a US ban on diesel exports to combat high prices. A ban would probably see American diesel prices plummet — offering relief to stretched consumers — but leave allies urgently needing to secure fuel.

The US and China plan to cut tariffs on about $30 billion of imports from each other, as the rivals move to steady ties following last week’s summit between Trump and Xi Jinping. The amount is still just a fraction of the $415 billion in total goods exchanged between the world’s largest economies last year though. Check out the full list of reductions.

Nvidia introduced a new double-layered AI security system that it says would’ve prevented the recent high-profile breach of Hugging Face by OpenAI’s AI models. OpenAI paused training of an agentic AI system after yet another security breach. With all this AI drama, we’d have given a lot to be a fly on the wall when Trump had dinner with Anthropic’s CEO Dario Amodei last night.

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Deep Dive: The Cost of Victory

The political battle for the Senate is spreading to states many analysts doubted would have a central role in the November midterms, prompting both parties to bolster spending in an election that is on track to be the most expensive in American history.

Just 36 days before Election Day, and with voting underway in almost half the country, Democrats are betting that voter frustration with the cost-of-living can outpace the Republican Party’s financial arsenal.
Recent weeks have seen Democrats leading or making gains in states previously viewed as long shots, including Iowa, Kansas, Alaska, Ohio and even Texas.
It’s getting costly. An estimated $11.6 billion has been spent so far, according to AdImpact — more than was spent during the entire 2024 presidential race. And that’s not even considering the cost of the president’s $5,000 “Trump dividend.”

The Big Take

China’s richest people are racing to pay massive tax bills after authorities unleashed squads of enforcers on individual billionaires. Some are trying to negotiate how much they ought to fork over, while others are simply scrambling to find the money to pay.

Big Take Podcast

The Battle Over Artificial Stone

Opinion

The bond rout has a silver lining, John Authers writes. Ten-year Treasuries yielding more than 5% look more attractive than they have in decades, offering a compelling alternative to stocks and putting greater scrutiny on rosy projections for S&P earnings.

More Opinions:

Hal Brands

Trump’s UN Bluster Didn’t Impress Xi, Putin or Iran

Adam Minter

The Irony of the GOP Buying So Many NFL Ads

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Before You Go

Taylor Swift and Madonna at The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards.

Madonna won big at MTV’s Video Music Awards, scooping seven categories, including artist of the year, following the release of Confessions II. Taylor Swift took the night’s top prize, video of the year for The Fate of Ophelia from The Life of a Showgirl, becoming the most-awarded artist in VMA history.

A Couple More