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🤝 TOGETHER WITH DECENTRALIZED MASTERS |
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The slot lands after the demand |
Caterpillar and Wärtsilä take the overflow. GE Vernova is the wait. |
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⚡ THE SETUP |
OilPrice, working from GE Vernova's July 22 call, has the gas-power book at 116 GW in the second quarter, up from 100 in the first and 83 at year-end 2025. The company is taking 2031 reservations. Only 53 GW of that book is firm. The other 63 GW is paid options. Production is about 20 GW annualized now, 24 GW by 2028, toward 30 GW by 2030. (GE Vernova / OilPrice) Goldman, in a May note, has U.S. data-center demand at 31 GW in 2025, 41 this year, and 66 in 2027, with 36.3 GW of additions scheduled for 2027. Wood Mackenzie: 60 to 70 GW of factories against about 110 GW of orders. Henry Hub sat near $2.79 in mid-August. The Fed Is Hoping Trump Doesn't Sign This. One signature would change how the dollar is valued. What it would mean for savings already sitting in cash. (From First Ballot Digital)
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Order a heavy-duty gas turbine from GE Vernova today and it lands in 2031. |
That misses the entire 2027 demand curve. |
OilPrice, working from the July 22 call, has the book at 116 GW. Scott Strazik is already selling 2031. The company's July 22 release has the same 116 and the same path: about 20 GW now, 24 by 2028, toward 30 by 2030. |
The molecule is cheap. Henry Hub sat near $2.79 in mid-August. Fuel is color. |
Goldman has 36.3 GW of U.S. data-center additions scheduled for 2027. That is more than the industry can ship in a year. Wood Mackenzie has 60 to 70 GW of factories against about 110 GW of orders. |
I am not making GE Vernova the hero. The frame is the constraint. |
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📊 BY THE NUMBERS |
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Book plus reservations. Only 53 GW is firm (GE Vernova / OilPrice) |
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Delivery if you order the heavy-duty frame today (OilPrice) |
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Goldman 2027 additions. More than a year of industry output |
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The foundry of this beat is a factory slot, not a wellhead. |
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Somebody else has to move the frame. |
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The overflow sits on a recip floor, not in another GE Vernova hall. |
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🔎 THE SECOND DERIVATIVE |
Caterpillar and Wärtsilä are the names that can add megawatts inside 24 to 36 months. Recip engines. OilPrice has both books full into 2028. Siemens Energy closed June 30 with 69 GW of firm backlog. Mitsubishi Heavy reported 35 GW of large-frame backlog on August 6. Combined-cycle lead times run about five years, seven on some frames. PJM's July 14 auction cleared at the $325 per megawatt-day cap for a third year, came up 6,831 MW short, and cleared 525 MW of new generation. The pipe does not cast a hot-section blade. |
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⚖️ THE COUNTER |
The foil is to buy the gas because Henry Hub is cheap, or to sit with GE Vernova because it owns the 116 GW print. Wrong layer. A cheap molecule does not ship a 2031 frame into 2027. |
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That is the layer I want a tap on. |
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🗳️ YOUR CALL |
This is the argument the piece is making. Pick the layer you would actually underwrite. |
Who actually adds megawatts before 2028?The box under the vote is for the read that does not fit four choices. |
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Results stay on. The box under the vote is for the read that does not fit four choices. |
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👀 WHAT TO WATCH |
Watch whether Caterpillar and Wärtsilä keep filling 2027 and 2028. Watch whether the 2031 reservations convert. Watch whether PJM still clears at the cap with almost no new generation. |
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— Knox Bennett, Lead Strategist, Strategic Compute |
P.S. When the frame lands in 2031, do you sit with the recip book or wait for the slot? Reply and tell me. |
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