At a crossroads

Sara Duterte faces impeachment in Philippines ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. The impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte is dividing an already troubled nation and may play a decisive role in shaping its political future. Duterte is accused of plotting to assassinate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., misusing public funds and amassing unexplained wealth. She’ll be barred from public office if two-thirds of senators convict her on charges that her defense calls baseless. If acquitted, Duterte will be free to run in the 2028 elections, and she’s the frontrunner to succeed him as president. Thousands of police were deployed in Manila when proceedings began on Monday in the trial that could last for months. Manila Bureau Chief Manolo Serapio Jr breaks down the latest developments. The case threatens to further distract the government from reviving an economy that’s one of the slowest growing in Southeast Asia as revelations of massive graft and the oil shock from the US-Iran war led to a slump in investor confidence and consumer spending. It’s taking place against the background of a deepening feud between the Philippines’ two largest political clans, a risk to stability in the country of 113 million that’s a key US ally in regional efforts to restrain China. Duterte’s father, ex-President Rodrigo Duterte, is awaiting trial in The Hague for alleged crimes against humanity. Marcos is the son of the late dictator Ferdinand Marcos, whose fall in 1986 restored democracy. He has less than two years left of a single six-year term and would want to hand power to an ally rather than a rival who allegedly threatened to have him killed. Marcos has said Sara Duterte, who has skipped the trial this week, should directly answer the charges against her. She’s trying to get the case thrown out in the Supreme Court. While Duterte has multiple allies in the Senate, evidence of flagrant wrongdoing may spur defections that could tip the balance. Whatever the outcome of the trial, it is likely to impact politics in the Philippines for years. — Manolo Serapio Jr Effigies of Marcos and Duterte during a protest coinciding with the State of the Nation Address in July 2024. Photographer: Ted Aljibe/AFP/Getty Images Global Must Reads US President Donald Trump said his tentative ceasefire with Iran is over, adding that while negotiations will continue, they are “a waste of time.” The remarks sent oil prices higher and came shortly after the US launched a new wave of strikes against Iran and revoked a waiver that allowed the sale of Iranian petroleum, actions taken in response to recent attacks on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is over “as far as I’m concerned.” The UK, France and Germany have launched a $50 billion NATO initiative to spur development of long-range weapons without US involvement, aiming to close the gap in an area where Russia is well ahead. Trump gave another strong indication that he may soon try to reverse his own ban on Turkey buying US F-35 fighter jets at talks with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan during the military alliance’s summit in Ankara. Marine Le Pen, France’s far-right leader for two decades, intends to make her fourth presidential run even after an appellate panel ordered her to wear an electronic-monitoring device when it upheld her conviction for misusing public funds. The head of National Rally, which leads in opinion polls, will shortly launch her 2027 campaign and lodge an appeal to France’s top court, which will delay the sentence and enable her to travel unencumbered by the electronic bracelet, she says. Le Pen leaves court after the ruling in Paris yesterday. Photographer: Anita Pouchard Serra/Bloomberg Colombian President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella said he’s suspending transition meetings with the outgoing government as tensions escalate ahead of the Aug. 7 handover. Gustavo Petro’s administration quickly followed with an announcement of its own saying that it too would cease to participate in the process, heightening uncertainty around what’s expected to be the first contested presidential transition in decades. Nigel Farage’s decision to quit as MP so he can fight again for the seat he won two years ago puts the poll-topping Reform leader back where he’s happiest: at the center of Britain’s attention. Farage was under pressure over a probe into whether he appropriately declared finances he received in the run-up to the 2024 election, which carries the potential penalty of having to give up his Clacton seat in Parliament. Indonesia’s stocks fell after S&P Dow Jones Indices signaled the country could eventually lose its emerging-market status if concerns over its equities market persist. Turkey was also put on a watchlist for a potential downgrade. Ghana asked South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to postpone a visit in August, a response to anti-immigrant protests in the southern African nation that claimed the life of a Ghanaian citizen and soured relations with several other countries.  An anti-migrant protest in Johannesburg on June 30. Photographer: Emmanuel Croset/AFP/Getty Images US prosecutors charged alleged Indian gang members with directing the 2023 assassination of a prominent Sikh activist in Vancouver, a killing that prompted a diplomatic crisis between India and Canada. Russia’s Saratov refinery caught fire after an overnight Ukrainian drone attack, while two tankers were also hit in the latest strikes targeting the country’s energy infrastructure. Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Until the US and Israel launched a war on Iran, ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz didn’t pay to use it. Now, Iran and Oman have raised the prospect of a permanent system to charge ships to travel through the waterway they border, a prospect that’s focused attention on how vulnerable global supply chains are to a handful of strategic chokepoints and how they are managed. And Finally Thailand is pitching itself as a source of relief to Europe as it sweats through high temperatures, promoting rainy-season holidays and exporting more air conditioners. Tourism officials have launched a campaign encouraging European travelers to visit during the nation’s milder rainy season, offering them discounted hotel rates and fewer crowds. The surge comes as much of Europe grapples with homes built to retain warmth rather than keep it out, leaving them increasingly vulnerable as heat waves become more frequent. Customers at a coffee shop during a heat wave in Nice, France, on July 6. Photographer: Valery Hache/AFP/Getty Images More from Bloomberg Check out our Bloomberg Investigates film series about untold stories and unraveled mysteries Next China for dispatches from Beijing on where China stands now — and where it’s going next Next Africa, a daily newsletter on where the continent stands now — and where it’s headed Economics Daily for what the changing landscape means for policymakers, investors and you Green Daily for the latest in climate news, zero-emission tech and green finance Get Next Japan for an inside view of the forces reshaping Japan, and what’s next for its businesses, markets and consumers Explore more newsletters at Bloomberg.com We’re improving your newsletter experience and we’d love your feedback. 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