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Micron’s HBM Surge Could Redefine the AI Growth Story
Authored by Thomas Hughes. Article Published: 6/25/2026.
Key Points
- Micron reported fiscal Q3 revenue of $41.46 billion, up 345% year over year and roughly 1,550 basis points above consensus estimates.
- Strong HBM demand, with new supply not expected to meaningfully impact the market until 2028, supports sustained hypergrowth over the next six to eight quarters.
- Micron's Q4 revenue guidance of $50 billion and expected adjusted EPS exceeding $31 both came in well above analyst expectations, driving shares up more than 15%.
- Special Report: SpaceX is offering you shares. Don't take them.
Micron’s (NASDAQ: MU) fiscal Q3 results and the strength of its outperformance highlight a persistent problem in today’s market: there is a fundamental misunderstanding of the AI trade. AI isn’t a niche; it isn’t a bubble. It is the evolution of technology, and that evolution is accelerating.
Leading tech giants, enterprises, and research labs around the world are racing to implement existing infrastructure to unlock the next generation in a virtuous cycle that could play out over years, if not decades.
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Find and compare fiduciary financial advisors serving your area todayThe impact on Micron is substantial, as it is the primary source of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) stacks, a component found in most GPUs designed for heavy AI training and other advanced workloads. The critical detail is that each NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) GPU uses six to 16 stacks of HBM, and each stack is six to 12 chips high, making demand for Micron’s product grow geometrically relative to the underlying AI GPU market.
The takeaway is that HBM markets are sold out, with new supply not expected to meaningfully affect the market until sometime in 2028. Until then, Micron is riding a wave of excess demand and pricing that is driving accelerating hypergrowth and an outlook for sustained strength over the coming six to eight quarters.
Micron, Growing Faster Than NVIDIA, Accelerates
NVIDIA set the gold standard for AI growth, topping out at 265% in Q4 2024, but Micron just lifted the bar. The company's fiscal Q3 take of $41.46 billion was not only up 345% from the prior year, but also nearly 1,550 basis points (bps) above MarketBeat’s reported consensus estimate. Strength was seen across all segments, each growing by an average of approximately 375%, led by Cloud and Datacenter, which account for more than 60% of the business. Cloud Memory grew by 300% and Datacenter by 650%, with Mobile & Client up 250% and Automotive & Embedded up 310%.
Margin news was also strong. The revenue surge drove improvement across the stack, despite higher costs and capital expenditures. Critical details include operating cash flow, which more than doubled sequentially and quadrupled year over year (YOY), and adjusted free cash flow, which grew by approximately 9X to over $18 billion. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS), the marketwide benchmark for earnings quality, grew by 13X to over $25, nearly $5, or 2,000 bps, better than expected.
Guidance is the catalyst for this market, as it forecasts another quarter of similar sequential growth, margin strength, and earnings. The revenue forecast of $50 billion was more than 1,600 bps better than expected, compounded by an even stronger outlook for earnings. Earnings are expected to exceed $31, further strengthening the company’s financial position.
Micron’s War Chest Swells: Debt Falls
Micron’s business windfall is clearly reflected in its balance sheet highlights. The company’s cash balance swelled, up approximately 160% YOY, to top $30 billion, including investments and restricted cash. While liabilities also increased, they did so at a much slower pace, offset by a substantial debt reduction that left equity higher. Looking ahead, cash flow is expected to remain robust for at least the next two years, barring any unforeseeable technological advancements, suggesting further cash and equity gains in the coming periods.
Analyst trends will likely strengthen now that fiscal Q3 results and fiscal Q4 guidance have been released. As it stands, the trends are robustly bullish, including numerous price target boosts in the weeks leading up to the earnings release. The consensus of 39 is a Buy, with a 90% buy-side bias in the data, and a price target of $1,103. However, it is not the average price target that matters; it is the trend. June revisions pushed the high end of price targets toward $2,000, representing a 100% increase in stock price from the pre-release closing price.
Looking at Micron on a valuation basis, MU stock remains deeply undervalued based on the pre-release earnings outlook. The post-release earnings outlook makes that value proposition even more compelling, suggesting this stock could easily rise by 200% to 300% in the near term and more over the long run. Micron’s biggest risk is industry cyclicality and potential oversupply, but that is a problem for the future. Supply-and-demand metrics, the timeline for capacity expansions, and analysts' commentary suggest there is little risk of oversupply at this time. The more likely scenario is that undersupply persists well into 2028 and potentially longer.
Price action reflects the strength of the results and guidance, indicating the uptrend will likely continue. MU shares gained more than 15% to hit fresh highs following the release, amid rising market momentum. In this scenario, MU shares will likely continue higher and may accelerate. Not only is the outlook robust, but FOMO may set in across the market, spurring sidelined cash to move.
How to Invest in the Biggest European Defense Surge in Decades
Authored by Nathan Reiff. Article Published: 6/19/2026.
Key Points
- European defense spending surged by 14% from 2024 to 2025 as NATO members bulk up military operations.
- Accessing European defense names can be difficult for U.S. investors, but several ETFs make the process more straightforward.
- EUAD is perhaps the most direct way to gain exposure to European defense stocks, but funds like SHLD and WAR also provide access as part of a broader geographic reach.
- Special Report: SpaceX is offering you shares. Don't take them.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, military spending around the world is rising rapidly and reached $2.9 trillion in 2025. Europe has led the way in this growth, with a 14% year-over-year (YOY) increase in military spending from 2024 to 2025. Not only are Russia and Ukraine continuing to pour more money into the ongoing war in that region, but a broader rearmament trend is boosting NATO spending; European NATO member military spending rose at its fastest pace since 1953 last year.
For U.S. investors, the easiest access point to the global defense industry is through major domestic players with international exposure, such as RTX (NYSE: RTX). However, these investments do not provide direct access to the European market, a segment that can be difficult for investors in other regions to explore. Fortunately, a growing number of defense exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can provide diversified exposure in a ready-made, easy-access portfolio. Beware, though, that not all of these defense ETFs focus exclusively on European names.
The Primary Pure-Play European Defense Fund, But Some Performance Issues Linger
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Discover the gold income fund before the next payout dateFor exclusively European aerospace and defense names, the best bet for many U.S. investors is likely the Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF (BATS: EUAD). Launched in late 2024, EUAD stands out among the growing list of domestic ETFs for its regional focus on developed European nations. Despite its passive management, this unique exposure comes at a price: EUAD carries an expense ratio of 0.50%, which is relatively high for a passive fund.
EUAD is also not especially diversified, with just 23 holdings. Those holdings include companies deriving a majority of their revenue from making, servicing, supplying, or distributing equipment for European military defense and aeronautics, or related industries.
Investors can expect significant allocations to major producers like Rolls-Royce Holdings (OTCMKTS: RYCEY), Safran (OTCMKTS: SAFRY), and Airbus Group (OTCMKTS: EADSY), each of which accounts for between 17% and 21% of the overall portfolio.
The companies EUAD focuses on are all well established, which may make the fund a good long-term buy-and-hold investment for investors concerned that, after 61% growth since launch, EUAD's biggest rally may be behind it for now.
A Globally-Focused Fund With Greater Diversification
The Global X Defense Tech ETF (NYSEARCA: SHLD) is a much larger fund than EUAD—it has several times the managed assets and a significantly higher one-month average trading volume approaching 2 million.
Its expense ratio also matches EUAD's exactly at 0.50%. However, SHLD is not as direct a way to access the European market in particular. While SHLD offers exposure to key European defense players—companies like Rheinmetall (OTCMKTS: RNMBY) and BAE Systems (OTCMKTS: BAESY), among others—more than 62% of its portfolio consists of U.S. firms. Combined, British, German, French, and Italian companies make up only about 20% of the total basket, although a handful of additional European nations bring that exposure up slightly.
Still, the 50 or so holdings in SHLD's portfolio have fared very well since the fund launched in the fall of 2023 and are up about 8% in the last year.
A Top-Performing Fund With an Active Approach
For an actively managed approach, one of the few options available to investors with a global focus is the U.S. Global Technology and Aerospace & Defense ETF (NYSEARCA: WAR), a fund holding about 30 defense industry names from around the globe. Like SHLD, WAR does not specifically focus on European names. However, its largest holding is Swedish defense contractor MilDef Group AB, and it also holds shares of Rolls-Royce and other prominent European companies.
WAR's industry purview is a bit broader than the funds above, as this ETF also holds firms involved in cybersecurity, data centers, semiconductors, and more.
Because it is actively managed, it has a slightly higher annual fee of 0.60%, as well as a much smaller asset base and trading volume than even EUAD above.
For investors primarily focused on recent performance, however, WAR stands out above these peers. The fund has returned an impressive 42% year-to-date (YTD). By comparison, one of the largest defense ETFs available to investors—the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (BATS: ITA), with nearly $14 billion in assets under management and a focus on North American companies—has returned only 12% YTD. Investors willing to pay a bit more may be handsomely rewarded by WAR's strategy.
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