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Time to Sell? 3 Winners With Fading Technical Momentum
By Dan Schmidt. Published: 6/13/2026.
Key Points
- Volatile markets can make it difficult for investors to decide on a course of action, especially when 2% daily moves are the norm.
- When markets become volatile, technical analysis becomes more crucial for identifying trends and momentum shifts.
- Fortinet, Amprius Technologies, and AppLovin are three stocks showing bearish technical signals despite gaining 20% or more over the past 12 months, indicating it might be time to hit the cash register.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
Markets move faster than ever these days, and yesterday’s winners can quickly become today’s losers. When prices outrun fundamentals, traders often turn to technical indicators and signals to guide their decisions. Momentum tools like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) don’t have prophetic powers, but they can offer clues about where a stock may be headed and how much strength is behind the move. Used together, a combination of indicators can provide solid evidence that a downtrend is about to break. Or, in the case of these three stocks, that an uptrend is losing momentum.
The tech sector has been one of the most volatile areas of the market over the past few weeks, with the Nasdaq 100 fluctuating by more than 2% in a single day on multiple occasions. While volatile trading sessions can be fun for day traders, they can make it difficult to gauge the market when indices swing by 2% every day. That’s where technical analysis comes in. Technical indicators use recent price data to generate actionable signals about shifts or continuations in momentum. By applying technical analysis, we can make educated predictions about a stock’s future path based on the intensity of buying or selling activity around it.
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See the SpaceX play no one is talking about before June 9thEach of the following three stocks fits a specific set of criteria. All three have gained 20% or more over the last 12 months, driven by various fundamental and macro factors. However, these stocks are currently showing technical warning signs that investors should carefully examine.
Fortinet: Overbought Peak With Insider Selling Warning
Fortinet Inc. (NASDAQ: FTNT) has been the face of the “software isn’t dead” narrative. The $106 billion cybersecurity firm has seen its stock rise more than 80% year-to-date (YTD), including more than 70% in the past three months alone.
The software sector seemed to be in the crosshairs of agentic AI, and funds like the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (BATS: IGV) lost more than 35% of their value between September and April. However, strong earnings from companies like Fortinet showed that AI can complement software platforms rather than wipe them out. Fortinet smashed expectations in Q1 2026, beating both top- and bottom-line estimates and posting 20% year-over-year (YOY) revenue growth.
Management also raised full-year guidance and repurchased more than $800 million worth of stock. So why is this stock on a “time to sell” list? Because sometimes the most important warning signs aren’t shown on the charts. Insiders have been selling stock at a faster rate over the last two quarters, including a $23 million sale from CEO Ken Xie.
There has been no significant insider buying in the past year, and insider selling at a technical top is often a warning sign. Widening Bollinger Bands indicate that volatile trading has become the norm for FTNT shares, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned bearish following the strong rally. The company’s long-term fundamentals still look promising, but it may be wise to take some short-term profits now.
Amprius: Technical Breakdown Amid Negative Catalysts
Amprius Technologies Inc. (NYSE: AMPX) lacks the strong fundamental foundation that Fortinet has, which means its downturn could be much sharper.
The lithium-ion battery producer is beating revenue estimates, and its stock is still up more than 100% YTD, but the rally is faltering amid concerns about the quality of its revenue. A recent report by a short-seller claims that the company inflates its orders and engages in undisclosed transactions with a related party affiliated with Amprius’s CEO.
The company also reported a larger-than-expected loss in its Q1 2026 earnings report on May 6, and insiders have sold $83 million worth of shares over the last three quarters, without a single buy.
AMPX may be heading for the dreaded double top pattern, and other signals suggest the rally is over. Both the RSI and MACD have been trending down since the middle of March, and the RSI has spent most of the last six weeks in bearish territory. AMPX isn’t profitable yet, and short sellers are openly questioning its revenue streams, so it would be wise to avoid this stock or take profits while you can.
AppLovin: Death Cross Overshadows Fundamental Strength
AppLovin Corp. (NASDAQ: APP) is already down more than 25% YTD, even though it grew revenue by more than 56% in Q1 2026 and remains well-regarded by analysts. But despite a strong fundamental picture, the stock is in the midst of a bear market that has proven difficult to shake.
It may seem counterintuitive, but APP shares likely won’t reflect the company’s strength until the technical setup improves.
An early-March Death Cross indicated the stock had a long way to go before regaining buying momentum.
The Death Cross sent the stock plunging below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, where it remained until late May.
APP shares tried to break out at the end of May, but sellers quickly pushed the share price back below the 200-day moving average, and now it is once again testing the 50-day moving average. With the RSI also below 50, APP shares can remain on your watchlist until they make a meaningful move above the 50-day moving average.
Rocket Lab Is Down 24% From Its 52-Week High—Pullback or Problem?
By Ryan Hasson. Published: 6/4/2026.
Key Points
- Rocket Lab's 24% pullback from its 52-week high appears to reflect normal consolidation rather than any deterioration in business fundamentals.
- Q1 2026 revenue rose 63.5% year over year to a record $200.3 million, and the backlog reached a record $2.2 billion, up 20.2% quarter over quarter.
- The pending SpaceX IPO, targeting a Nasdaq listing as early as June 12, could serve as a catalyst for space sector stocks, including Rocket Lab.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
There are pullbacks that signal something is wrong, and there are pullbacks that reflect a stock catching its breath after an extraordinary run. For Rocket Lab (NASDAQ: RKLB), the nearly 24% decline from its 52-week high of $151 to Wednesday's close of $115 looks far more like the latter.
The stock is still up almost 65% on the year, the business is executing at a record pace, and the broader space sector is approaching what could be one of its most significant catalytic moments in history. But with multiple recent insider sales and the consensus analyst price target of $97.19 still well below the current price, not all the signals point in the same direction. Here’s a closer look at what the pullback means and whether it represents a risk or opportunity.
The Fundamental Story Has Not Changed
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See Luke Lango's full breakdown and how to prepare nowWhatever the short-term price action suggests, it is worth making one thing clear: the underlying business momentum has not deteriorated. Q1 2026 delivered record revenue of $200.3 million, up 63.5% year over year.
The backlog hit a new record of $2.2 billion, up 20.2% quarter over quarter. Q2 guidance of $225 million to $240 million came in 12% above the prior analyst consensus, and the company signed more launches in Q1 alone than in all of 2025.
Beyond the earnings report, the recent news flow has been equally impressive. The $90 million Space Force GEO satellite contract marked Rocket Lab's first-ever prime contractor role for a geostationary orbit mission. The Motiv Space Systems acquisition closed, adding Mars-proven space robotics and precision mechanisms to the vertical integration stack. And the $3 billion equity distribution agreement, backed by 16 financial institutions, provides the capital runway to fund Neutron's development and future acquisitions without balance sheet constraints. Neutron itself remains on track for a debut launch in Q4 2026, with five dedicated contracts already signed before it has flown a single mission.
The SpaceX IPO Angle
One of the more interesting dynamics at play right now is the SpaceX IPO timeline. SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) filed its S-1 on May 20, targeting a Nasdaq listing as early as June 12 at a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion. That event, if it proceeds on schedule, could serve as a powerful catalyst for a broad re-ignition of space sector stocks, and for Rocket Lab specifically, as the closest publicly traded competitor to SpaceX.
On the flip side, however, bears might argue that, given the extraordinary run-up in RKLB and other space names, sector-wide profit-taking could occur ahead of the event as investors reposition to fund purchases of SpaceX. Another potential bear case is that the SpaceX IPO could turn into a sell-the-news event for the sector in the short term, given the astounding excitement and participation leading up to the listing.
What the Analysts and Institutions Say
The analyst picture on RKLB requires honest framing. The consensus Moderate Buy rating across 20 analysts reflects genuine long-term conviction in the company's trajectory. But the consensus price target of $97.19 sits almost 21% below the current price, meaning the stock has significantly outrun where most analysts have their models set.
That gap has been a consistent feature of RKLB's 2026 performance, and analyst target revisions have tended to follow the stock higher rather than lead it. Whether a fresh wave of upward revisions follows the Q2 earnings report in August remains to be seen.
On the institutional side, the base of institutional ownership remains supportive, with major inflows over the past 12 months.
It is worth noting, however, that recent insider activity included several share sales by senior executives, a data point investors should be aware of even if it does not necessarily signal a change in the long-term outlook. Insider selling at elevated prices following a 100%+ YTD run is not unusual, but it is worth monitoring alongside the broader technical picture.
Pullback or Problem?
The honest answer is that a 24% pullback from a 52-week high, in a stock that ran more than 100% in a matter of weeks on the back of genuine fundamental catalysts, is far more consistent with normal digestion than with fundamental deterioration. The business is executing. The backlog is growing. The Neutron program is advancing. And the SpaceX IPO on June 12 could provide the next meaningful sector catalyst, bringing fresh attention and capital back to the name. For long-term investors with conviction in the Rocket Lab thesis, the current setup looks more like an opportunity on a major dip toward key moving averages than a warning.
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