Mess in Manila

Political Chaos Adds to Marcos’s China Woes ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

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Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. As if the Philippines didn’t already have enough to worry about, add a worsening political crisis to the Southeast Asian nation’s growing list of woes. Grappling with a slowing economy weighed down by accelerating inflation and higher energy costs, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is locked in a bitter feud with Vice President Sara Duterte that threatens to paralyze parts of the government well before the next elections in 2028. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in Manila on March 24. Photographer: Lisa Marie David/Bloomberg One senator is in jail on corruption charges, another is in hiding as he seeks to avoid the International Criminal Court, where former President Rodrigo Duterte — Sara’s father — is awaiting trial on charges of crimes against humanity.  Meanwhile, the Senate, tasked with holding the vice president’s upcoming impeachment trial for alleged graft and betrayal of public trust, has been effectively paralyzed. The sudden absence of those two senators this week left the chamber in a precarious 11–11 split between rival factions. Against that fractious domestic backdrop, Marcos is trying to navigate an increasingly fraught security environment.  Chinese and Philippine vessels continue to square off in the South China Sea, while Beijing’s growing pressure on Taiwan places Manila on the front line of the broader strategic rivalry between China and the US. A fair question is whether the mounting problems will undermine the Philippines’ ability to push back. So far, the answer appears to be no.  If anything, Marcos has doubled down. His administration has strengthened defense ties with the US, expanded security cooperation with Japan and Australia, and moved ever closer to a growing network of countries wary of China’s ambitions in the region. But the risks are accumulating. Higher energy costs are here for the foreseeable future, while artificial intelligence presents a longer-term challenge to Filipino jobs and growth.  The Philippines may have managed to separate its domestic turmoil from its foreign policy up to now. The question is, for how long? — Philip J. Heijmans Global Must Reads Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed peace talks to Russian leader Vladimir Putin in a rare and combative open letter late yesterday as efforts to end more than four years of war gained momentum. Putin pushed back at prospects for European leaders to help negotiate a deal, dismissing them as mediators and pointedly insisting on an agreement he said had been worked out with President Donald Trump in Alaska. Russia is turning to a playbook deployed against Armenia’s former Soviet stablemates in an effort to frustrate the South Caucasus nation’s pivot toward the West ahead of parliamentary elections on Sunday, democracy watchdogs in Yerevan say. Armenia has increasingly become the target of pro-Russia narratives as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seeks to move away from decades in the Kremlin’s orbit toward the European Union. Mount Ararat overlooking Yerevan, Armenia. Photographer: Karen Minasyan/AFP/Getty Images Global investors are rapidly losing confidence in Indonesia as its stocks tumble at the fastest pace worldwide and the currency sinks to all-time lows. President Prabowo Subianto’s populist and interventionist agenda – highlighted by taking direct control of key commodity exports to curb tax evasion – has largely sparked the “sell Indonesia” shift. Political activist Abhijeet Dipke is leaving the US for India to lead a youth protest in New Delhi that seeks the resignation of the education minister over scandals related to important tests. Dipke has quickly risen to prominence because of social-media posts and a website that took aim at a top judge who compared jobless youngsters to “cockroaches.”  People in Democratic Republic of Congo have set fire to Ebola treatment tents and isolation wards, and tensions at one burial became so volatile that police fired warning shots into the air to disperse the crowd. This violence, stemming from mistrust of authorities, is hampering efforts to contain a particularly dire outbreak of the disease, challenges exacerbated by a US foreign aid freeze and decimation of American-backed health programs. The US and Iran have made little progress in talks over an interim peace deal this week, with the sides seeing their worst clashes since an April ceasefire began and fighting continuing in Lebanon. Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham confirmed for the first time his intention to challenge Keir Starmer to be Britain’s prime minister. Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to North Korea next week on his inaugural overseas trip of the year. Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg embraces compromise, but recent world events have shown him that it has its limits. Don’t miss from Bloomberg Weekend: Mishal Husain speaks with Ebola pioneer Peter Piot about how worried the world should be over the latest outbreak. Flavia Krause-Jackson writes how Pope Leo XIV’s encyclical on AI spoke to her, while Simon Nixon reports from the UK Crown Dependency of Jersey on the island’s anxiety over the future. Subscribe to the newsletter here. Sign up for the Washington Edition newsletter for news from the US capital and watch Balance of Power at 1 and 5 p.m. ET weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Chart of the Day Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen became the first woman to secure a third term in Denmark when she managed to forge a governing coalition this week following March elections. Her new cabinet has a record level of female representation, with 11 women and 10 men. “For the first time in Denmark’s history, there are more female ministers than male ministers,” Frederiksen said in Copenhagen on Wednesday as she unveiled her cabinet line-up. And Finally On a thoroughfare that usually throbs with music, shouted bargains and the bustle of downtown Johannesburg, the metal shutters on the shops are closed. Police patrol the Smal Street Mall, where an operation targeting undocumented migrants forced outlets offering everything from Mozambican fabrics to Nigerian cosmetics to shut. The crackdown follows growing anti-migrant protests amid a national debate over who belongs in South Africa. Thousands have taken to the streets and foreigners who are seen as competitors for scarce jobs, housing and government services have been attacked. South African police watch a worker shutter a shop during a demonstration against undocumented migrants in Johannesburg on April 29. Photographer: Emmanuel Croset/AFP/Getty Images Pop Quiz (no cheating!). The prime minister of which country said this week that it will maintain its nuclear-free stance? 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