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There is a lot of worry these days about China catching up or passing the US in all sorts of things that are becoming ever more vital in our world: AI, quantum computing, R&D spending, green technology, EVs, public transit, academic science papers, hypersonic weapons, and so on. That list often favors quantity rather than quality, but as my colleague Admiral James Stavridis likes to say, sometimes quantity has a quality of its own, which we hope isn’t the case in warships.
America’s geopolitical Chicken Littles, though, conveniently elide some things China shouldn’t be so proud of dominating: coal plant construction, giant-clam slaughtering, Big Brotherism, executions, endangered-species trafficking, mercury pollution, journalist imprisonment, ghost cities [1] and, of course, greenhouse gas emissions.
Now we can add lighting up to that list: “Cigarette consumption in China rose 39 percent from 2003 to 2023, even as it fell 26 percent in the rest of the world,” reports the New York Times. “The 2.4 trillion cigarettes sold in China each year account for nearly half the global total.” Smoking may be bad for the user, but it’s hugely profitable for China’s cigarette monopoly, which raked in $244 billion in profit and tax revenue last year, or about what Beijing claims it spends on defense. [2] Chinese leader Xi Jinping quit the habit years ago; his subjects, not so much. But that’s not the only bad habit Beijing can’t seem to kick. It’s also addicted to harassing Filipino warships. Here’s the backstory: In the late 1990s, the Philippines deliberately grounded the Sierra Madre, a World War II-era tank carrier, on the Second Thomas Shoal to create a rusting military citadel. For years, China worked to block resupply missions to the small garrison. Now, ships are allowed to bring in supplies every six weeks or so, which is big progress, considering that in 2016, an international court resoundingly ruled that Beijing’s actions in Filipino waters were flatly illegal. [3] Even with the law on its side, the Philippines is going to need a lot of help against the belligerent Asian superpower. But as time goes on, the US is becoming less and less willing to supply the aid — and its allies are taking note. “The old model of security — with Washington firmly at the center — is giving way to a new Asian power structure faster than many expected,” writes Karishma Vaswani. “Sixteen months into President Donald Trump’s second term, Asian nations are facing reality and actively preparing for a time when American support may not be guaranteed.” How can America’s Asian allies help themselves? With THE BOMB, maybe: “It is hardly surprising that Seoul is debating its own nuclear weapons program. The conversation in Tokyo is quieter given its own horrific experience of US atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki,” Karishma writes. The Japanese may be hesitant on the nuclear front, but they’re resolute on the conventional one. “Japan is in the fourth year of an aggressive five-year plan to create an elite military. It is raising defense spending from 1% to 2% of GDP, and within a few years it could potentially have the world’s third-largest military budget, behind only the US and China,” writes Admiral Stavridis. James was in Japan last week to talk with top officials about how this pile of yen should be spent. Naval strength was near the top of everybody’s list, he reports: “Some advocated following in Australia’s footsteps and approaching the US about a cooperative program for obtaining advanced nuclear submarines. While the Japanese build world-class diesel subs (notably the Taigei class lithium-ion powered boats), they understand that nuclear attack boats, as quiet as they are lethal, are the apex predators of the oceans.” As Japan and the Philippines harden themselves against Chinese aggression, Karishma says another Asian country is walking the tightrope. “If you want a blueprint for how countries can survive this era of great power rivalry, look no further than Vietnam,” she writes in a separate column. “A focus on economic growth and a determination to avoid dependence on any single power has transformed it into one of Asia’s most successful states. Hanoi offers a model for how nations straddling the line between the US and China can thrive even during uncertainty.” Going it alone isn’t an option for Taiwan: Despite having a GDP per capita more than seven times the size of Vietnam’s, it’s utterly reliant on the unreliable man in the White House. “The world may be transfixed by the US-Iran drama, but countries in the Western Pacific are also closely watching something else: the saga of an arms deal involving Taiwan,” Hal Brands writes. “The fate of a record-breaking US weapons deal with Taipei has become a test of whether President Donald Trump can pursue strong, competitive policies even while he engages diplomatically with China — or whether he is sliding toward a disastrous posture of accommodation.” The precarious position of the island President Xi calls the “renegade province” is another reason that “closer ties between Japan and the Philippines are important,” adds Karishma. Geography increasingly looks like destiny:
Let’s chalk up another item to the list of Chinese accomplishments: World leader in turning its neighbors against itself. Bonus Ashes to Ashes Reading:
What’s the World Got in Store?
- NBA Finals start, June 3: It’s Time to Sell the Knicks — Adam Minter
- India GDP, rate decision, June 5: An Iran Deal Won’t Plug India’s Capital or AI Gaps — Andy Mukherjee
- US jobs report, June 5: Nobody Knows What ‘Working Class’ Even Means Anymore — Allison Schrager
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America is brimming with anticipation over Trump’s “Great American State Fair” on the National Mall to celebrate 250 years of America being America. [4] So we were all thrilled, I’m sure, to learn about the musical lineup last week. I mean, when you’ve signed Vanilla Ice, everything else is just the cherry on top, right? Bret Michaels and Martina McBride, natch, but also Flo Rida and a bunch of other acts. Or maybe not a bunch of other acts: “Young MC, Morris Day and the Time, the C+C Music Factory and The Commodores each shared statements online announcing they will not perform at the concert,” despite being on the official list, reported The Hill. Then McBride pulled out. Followed by Michaels. But at least we still have ... Fab Morvan of Milli Vanilli, a group that is also a world leader: Band with most class action suits against it for lip syncing an entire album! That miming duo released only two studio albums, [5] which makes them pikers compared to Drake, who just released three new albums on the same day. Was it a shameless attempt to increase his relevance? An ego-driven exemplar of greedy excess? Or something more meaningful? “Philosophically, the releases were a total rejection of the critical and commercial systems that often define the music business,” writes Peter A. Berry. “With each platinum plaque and each unconventional release strategy, Drake has drifted further from the traditional rap canon. It’s a growth pattern that began at the start of his career, one in which he’s displayed an acute sense of his power, the world and his relationship to both.” Before last week’s drop, Drake had 11 platinum albums and nearly 100 “Platinum-certified efforts,” whatever that means. John Authers is into music and precious metals as well. Here’s his list:
John asks for other examples. In the face of China’s globe-topping achievements, the PacRim allies’ distrust of the US, a potential proliferation race in Asia, a dearth of Tridacna gigas in the South China Sea and a semiquincentennial version of Ice Ice Baby, I’ll nominate Take My Hand, Precious Lord. Note: Please send nicotine patches and feedback to Tobin Harshaw at tharshaw@bloomberg.net
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