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Tether eyes top spot amid StanChart's $50K BTC, $1.4K ETH forecast |
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Key points: |
Standard Chartered warns Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 and Ethereum to $1,400 before a broader recovery unfolds. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone says Tether's USDT may eventually overtake both BTC and ETH in market capitalization.
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News - Crypto markets are facing renewed pressure as macro headwinds and fading investor risk appetite weigh on digital assets. Standard Chartered now expects Bitcoin to drop toward $50,000 and Ethereum to test $1,400 in the coming months, citing weakening ETF flows, subdued price action, and delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. |
At the same time, a different narrative is gaining traction. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone argues that Tether's USDT could eventually surpass both Bitcoin and Ethereum in market capitalization. With USDT already the third-largest crypto asset, he describes its steady expansion as the most durable trend in the sector. |
Macro pressure and ETF outflows - According to Geoff Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, ETF holders appear more inclined to sell rather than buy the dip. Bitcoin ETF holdings have fallen roughly 25% from their October 2025 peak, reflecting a shift in institutional positioning. Markets are also not pricing in imminent rate cuts, limiting liquidity support for risk assets. |
Despite forecasting further downside, the bank maintains its long-term outlook, projecting Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ethereum at $4,000 by year-end 2026. Kendrick characterizes the potential move lower as a final capitulation phase before recovery. |
The stablecoin shift - While Bitcoin and Ethereum face volatility, stablecoins continue to expand. The sector is now valued at more than $307 billion, up nearly 50% since January 2025, according to DefiLlama data cited in reports. |
McGlone notes that USDT's growth is driven by issuance and demand for liquidity rather than price appreciation. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has previously stated that up to 60% of USDT usage relates to commodity trading, remittances, cross-border payments, and invoice settlement. |
With Bitcoin's market cap near $1.3 trillion, Ethereum around $236 billion, and USDT roughly $184 billion, a full flippening would require significant expansion or further declines in major tokens. Still, the divergence between falling majors and rising stablecoin supply is reshaping market dynamics. |
Binance locks $1B SAFU in BTC as Strategy leans on preferred stock |
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Key points: |
Binance has completed its $1 billion SAFU conversion into 15,000 BTC, making Bitcoin its sole reserve asset for the emergency fund. Strategy is shifting toward perpetual preferred stock issuance to fund additional Bitcoin purchases as MSTR trades below net asset value.
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News - Binance has finalized the conversion of its $1 billion Secure Asset Fund for Users (SAFU) into Bitcoin, completing a 30-day transition announced on January 30. The exchange purchased a final 4,545 BTC, bringing total SAFU holdings to 15,000 BTC, valued at just over $1 billion at completion. |
The fund, originally backed by a mix of assets including stablecoins, is now fully denominated in Bitcoin. Binance said it will rebalance the reserve if volatility pushes its value below $800 million, reinforcing its position that BTC is its long-term reserve asset. |
The move comes as crypto sentiment remains fragile. The Fear and Greed Index recently fell to five, its lowest reading on record, while Nansen data shows smart money traders holding roughly $105 million in net short Bitcoin exposure. |
Institutional Strategy shifts - At the same time, Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy is adjusting how it finances accumulation. CEO Phong Le said the company will transition from equity issuance toward preferred capital, promoting its perpetual preferred stock known as Stretch (STRC). |
STRC reclaimed its $100 par value during Wednesday's session, enabling Strategy to potentially resume at-the-market offerings. The preferred shares offer a variable dividend, currently set at 11.25%, reset monthly to encourage trading near par. |
Strategy holds 714,644 BTC. However, with Bitcoin trading near $67,400, well below its average purchase price of about $76,056, the company faces an unrealized loss of roughly $6.1 billion. Its stock has fallen about 17% year to date and trades at approximately 0.95x diluted multiple to net asset value, meaning shares are priced below the value of the Bitcoin backing them. |
Bitcoin treasury playbook evolves - While Binance has consolidated its user protection fund entirely into Bitcoin, Strategy is transitioning toward preferred capital to continue funding acquisitions despite valuation pressure. The shift reduces dilution risk from discounted equity issuance but introduces higher dividend obligations, reshaping the company's capital structure as it maintains its Bitcoin accumulation strategy. |
Banks urge OCC to slow crypto trust charters |
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Key points: |
The American Bankers Association has urged the OCC to delay approving new crypto trust bank charters until GENIUS Act rules are fully defined. Banking groups warn that unresolved insolvency, oversight, and stablecoin yield issues could pose systemic risks.
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News - The American Bankers Association is pressing the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to pause approvals of new national trust bank charters for crypto and stablecoin firms, arguing that key regulatory frameworks remain unfinished. |
In a Wednesday comment letter, the ABA urged the OCC to avoid advancing applications tied to digital asset activities until the regulatory obligations under the GENIUS Act are fully clarified. The group warned that implementation of the Act could take years and requires coordinated rulemaking across multiple agencies, including the Federal Reserve and FDIC. |
The association also criticized the OCC's practice of conditioning approvals on future compliance with the GENIUS Act, arguing that applicants' full responsibilities must "come fully into view" before charters are granted. |
Insolvency and oversight concerns - Banking groups pointed to the 2022 collapses of FTX and Celsius as reminders that novel digital asset business models can strain receivership and resolution processes. The ABA asked the OCC to ensure its supervisory and insolvency frameworks are adequate to manage risks posed by uninsured, digital asset-focused national trusts. |
The letter further warned that certain applicants may need to register with the SEC or CFTC depending on their activities, and cautioned against national trust charters being used to bypass securities or derivatives oversight. |
The association also proposed barring limited-purpose trust companies that are not engaged in traditional banking from using the word "bank" in their names to prevent consumer confusion. |
Fed access and stablecoin yield fight - Several crypto firms, including Circle, Ripple, BitGo, Paxos, Coinbase, Nomura's Laser Digital, and others, are pursuing or hold conditional OCC trust charters. Advocates argue that national licensing and potential Federal Reserve access could modernize settlement infrastructure by enabling direct, regulated transactions without traditional correspondent banking layers. |
At the same time, stablecoin yield provisions remain a flashpoint in ongoing market structure negotiations. Banking groups have pushed for restrictions on interest-bearing stablecoins, and the debate has contributed to stalled legislative progress. |
UK taps HSBC for first G7 Digital Gilt pilot |
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Key points: |
The UK Treasury has appointed HSBC's Orion platform to power its Digital Gilt Instrument pilot within the Bank of England's digital sandbox. The initiative aims to accelerate settlement, reduce costs, and position the UK as the first G7 nation to issue tokenized sovereign bonds.
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News - The UK Treasury has selected HSBC and law firm Ashurst to lead a pilot program for issuing tokenized government bonds, known as the Digital Gilt Instrument or DIGIT. The trial will take place within the Bank of England's Digital Securities Sandbox, allowing the government to test blockchain-based sovereign debt under a regulated but flexible framework. |
HSBC's Orion platform, launched in 2023, will handle issuance, management, and onchain settlement of the short-dated digital gilts. The pilot will operate independently of the UK's primary debt management program and is designed to explore how distributed ledger technology can be integrated into sovereign debt issuance. |
Officials said the program aims to improve efficiency, reduce operational costs, and attract investment, reinforcing the UK's ambition to remain at the forefront of global capital markets innovation. |
Orion's track record - HSBC Orion has already facilitated more than $3.5 billion in digital bond issuances globally, including Hong Kong's $1.3 billion green bond and sterling-denominated digital bonds for the European Investment Bank. The platform supports atomic settlement and connects with clearing infrastructure to streamline institutional workflows. |
HSBC described blockchain-based debt issuance as a way to significantly accelerate transaction settlement times, while Ashurst will advise on legal and regulatory aspects of the pilot. |
Beyond the pilot - The initiative comes as other jurisdictions, including Hong Kong and Luxembourg, have advanced tokenized sovereign or institutional bond issuances. Industry observers note that broader adoption of digital gilts in the UK would require further legal clarity and potential adjustments to tax and regulatory treatment before becoming standard practice. |
For now, the DIGIT pilot signals a structured step toward embedding distributed ledger technology into UK sovereign debt markets. |
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More stories from the crypto ecosystem |
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Interesting facts |
A U.S. crypto firm is targeting global remittances: Trump-linked World Liberty Financial plans to launch a global forex-to-crypto remittance platform designed to settle foreign exchange and cross-border payments at significantly lower fees than traditional systems, tapping into an estimated $7 trillion global FX flow. Dubai's crypto regulatory model is gaining global attention: Analysts note that Dubai's regulatory framework for digital assets is shaping a "safer investing environment" blending clear rules for exchanges, custody, and licensing to attract institutional participation in 2026. EU formally backs a digital euro with offline capability: The European Parliament voted to align with the European Council on a digital euro framework that supports both online and offline use, pushing the EU toward a centrally issued digital currency by 2029 to bolster payment sovereignty and fend off reliance on private payment giants.
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Top 3 coins of the day |
Pippin (PIPPIN) |
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Key points: |
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What you should know: |
PIPPIN continued its upward surge, pushing toward $0.54 and marking a strong follow-through from its recent consolidation near the $0.30 zone. The price remained firmly above the 20, 50, 100, and 200 SMAs, with the MA ribbon fanning out in a bullish alignment. This structure reflected sustained trend strength rather than a short-lived spike. |
Momentum also improved. The Elliott Wave Oscillator flipped back into positive territory, printing fresh green bars after a brief pullback phase. Volume expanded during the breakout leg, suggesting active participation rather than thin liquidity-driven movement. |
From a structural standpoint, $0.48 to $0.50 now serves as immediate support. Holding this region keeps the short-term bias constructive. On the upside, $0.60 stands as the next resistance area to monitor if buying pressure persists. |
Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) |
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Key points: |
VIRTUAL rebounded toward $0.57 after defending the $0.52 to $0.54 area, registering a firm daily gain. Volume expanded alongside the bounce, while RSI remained below neutral, reflecting recovery without full bullish confirmation.
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What you should know: |
VIRTUAL staged a short-term recovery after sliding steadily through late January. Price reclaimed the 9-day SMA near $0.57, suggesting improving near-term momentum, though the broader structure remained corrective. RSI climbed from oversold levels but stayed under 50, indicating that upside pressure had strengthened without fully shifting trend control. |
Trading activity surged significantly over the past 24 hours, with reported volume jumping close to 60%, pointing to renewed speculative interest. While the broader market edged higher, VIRTUAL outperformed its peers. |
For continuation, $0.55 now acts as immediate support. Holding this zone keeps the rebound intact. A sustained push toward $0.65 is possible if volume remains elevated, while a drop back below $0.55 would weaken the recovery attempt. |
Hedera (HBAR) |
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Key points: |
HBAR surged toward $0.094 after bouncing from the $0.086 to $0.088 region, though it remained positioned below the entire MA Ribbon cluster. The Awesome Oscillator remained below the zero line, but green histogram bars pointed to easing bearish momentum.
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What you should know: |
After briefly slipping below $0.090, HBAR attracted fresh bids and recovered into the mid-$0.090 range, marking its strongest push in several sessions. However, the broader trend structure stayed heavy. Price continued trading beneath the 20 SMA near $0.095, the 50 SMA around $0.108, the 100 SMA close to $0.124, and the 200 SMA near $0.172, leaving higher resistance stacked overhead. |
Momentum showed early signs of stabilization rather than reversal. The Awesome Oscillator remained under the zero line, although green histogram bars suggested that downside pressure eased. Volume expanded during the rebound, indicating active participation. |
On the fundamental side, the rollout of the AUDC Australian dollar stablecoin on Hedera, alongside renewed attention around its involvement in the Crypto Council for Innovation, likely added to near-term interest. |
Immediate support sits around $0.088, while a decisive move above $0.095 would improve short-term positioning. |
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