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Don Kaufman here. |
I'm watching people celebrate right now and it's making me absolutely sick. |
You know what that Thanksgiving rally was? It wasn't the market getting healthy. |
It was the most violent move I've seen in 15 years designed to do one thing - get dumb a**es back in the market right before they crush em. |
Are you going to fall for it… again? |
Look, I'm Gonna Be Honest With You Here |
I spent the whole weekend trying to explain this in my update, but I know half of you didn't watch it. |
You were probably too busy celebrating being "right" about buying the dip. |
So let me spell it out in crayon for you. |
We moved 250 points straight up over Thanksgiving weekend. That's not normal. That's not healthy. That's violence. |
And when you see violence like that after sell-side activity, you know what comes next? More violence. To the downside. |
The thing is, I keep asking people the same question and nobody gets it. How many of you would buy Nvidia at $140 right now? |
All of you, right? You're sitting there thinking "hell yes, I'd back up the truck at $140." |
But I promise you one thing - if Nvidia actually hits $140, you won't want it. You know why? Because the whole world's gonna feel very different if we get there. |
That's exactly what I'm trying to rope you into understanding. The market's trying to rope you into the exact same thing. |
The Math That Should Terrify You |
Here's what nobody's talking about. Last week we had a $145 expected move over three and a half days. This week? A hundred bucks over five days. |
You just witnessed the most violent rally in recent history and now the expected move drops by a third? |
What is wrong with you if you believe that? |
The volatility fuse got lit October 10th. We're in a 400-point volatility box. And everyone's acting like it's just gonna quietly disappear because it's December. |
Meanwhile, crypto - which can't hide behind the same bullshit as equities - is down 31% from its highs. That's your preview of coming attractions. |
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Nevertheless, Here's What's Really Happening |
Google's carrying this entire market. Up 67% with a $4 trillion market cap while everything else looks like garbage. |
Apple? Flat. Microsoft? Barely keeping up with the S&P. Tesla? Underperforming. |
Only two stocks are really working, and when that concentration breaks, you're screwed. |
But instead of recognizing this setup, retail keeps buying. Robinhood - which epitomizes this retail bubble - went from $20 to $120 in a year. That's not investing, that's speculation on steroids. |
My kids are smarter than this. When I ask them what's wrong with people, they tell me "it's your genetics, dad." |
At least they're honest. |
What You Should Actually Do |
Stop buying every dip like it's 2021. |
This isn't an investment market anymore - it's a trader's market. High volatility, wide ranges, violent moves in both directions. |
You want to know what I'm doing? I'm short Robinhood, waiting for Google to crack, and positioning for the volatility that's coming whether you see it or not. |
Because while you're celebrating getting "roped back in," I'm watching the setup that's about to separate you from your money. |
The thing is, this marketplace will rope as many people as possible before it breaks. And that dynamic sounds diabolical because it is. |
Don't be the sucker holding the bag when reality hits. |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
P.S. - If you want to see how I'm actually trading this volatility instead of getting destroyed by it, today's the last day to get the full breakdown. |
Because once this breaks, it's too late to learn. |
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