|
|
Last trading day of 2025. Time for the brutal scorecard. |
Look, a year ago today, I sat in this exact spot - probably with six monitors instead of two like I had that morning because my setup was screwed up - and I told you to "get ready to rumble." |
And you know what? While every analyst on the Street was selling smooth sailing into 2025, I'm sitting here saying this market feels sketchy. I kept hammering about this fragile marketplace, these weird, expected moves that didn't make sense for a holiday week. |
April 2nd proved exactly why I was getting those alarm bells. |
When Trump dropped those "Liberation Day" tariff bombs, the market didn't just decline - it imploded exactly like I predicted. SPX crashed through my 5870 trigger level. VIX exploded to 60+. That "sketchy" feeling I couldn't shake? Yeah, that turned out to be real money. |
But here's the thing about making public predictions for 20+ years - you get humbled. A lot. Sometimes you're right, sometimes you're wrong, and sometimes you're both brilliant and completely blind on the same damn trade. |
What I Actually Nailed |
Let me start with what worked, because this stuff saved people real money. |
Volatility regime change: I spent half an hour that December morning explaining why this market felt off. |
I kept saying this doesn't feel like normal holiday week trading. The expected moves were pricing in like $31 of movement for a market that should be dead. I'm looking at this going, "What the hell does this market see?" |
March and April proved exactly what it was seeing. While everyone else was positioned for the usual January melt-up, I'm warning about violent, disconnected moves. Policy uncertainty, fragile positioning - all of it. |
SPX Downside Acceleration: I specifically called out that break below 5870 would trigger accelerated selling. Hedging pressure, gamma failure, the whole nine yards. When we hit that level in April? The cascade was immediate and brutal. Exactly what happens when option dealers get caught wrong-footed. |
NVDA Breakdown Signal: I said breaking below $130 would signal broader market trouble. April 7th, NVDA crashes all the way below $90. I mean, that's not just breaking $130 - that's obliteration. And it happened right alongside the SPX collapse. The signal worked perfectly. |
The Silver Opportunity: Back in December, I was building silver positions, selling puts around $26 because I want to get long but not at those levels. Silver hits those exact entry points during the spring chaos, then runs 140%+ by year-end. Same with bonds - I called for more pain first, then opportunity. Got both. |
Where I Got Schooled |
Now here's where the market taught me some lessons. |
Dollar strength: Dead wrong. I called for continued dollar rally based on defensive flows, tariff hedging, all that. Instead, DXY drops 9-10%. Fed cuts, debt concerns - I was fighting the last war instead of seeing what was actually developing. |
Recovery power: This is the big miss. I correctly identified all the breakdown signals - NVDA below $130, SPX below 5870, VIX explosions. All of that happened exactly as I predicted. But I completely underestimated the market's ability to bounce back from that technical damage. |
NVDA going from $90 to closing near $190? That's not recovery, that's resurrection. I saw the breakdown coming a mile away but missed the bounce-back story entirely. |
Duration assumptions: I was right about the spring volatility explosion, but I assumed it would last longer. Once the policy uncertainty faded and the AI narrative reasserted itself, we shifted back into exactly the kind of grind-higher environment I said wouldn't happen. |
Here's What 2025 Actually Taught Me |
You can nail the breakdown and completely miss the recovery. That's the lesson. |
My technical analysis was spot-on for identifying fragility and predicting the April chaos. But I was so focused on the downside risks that I didn't properly account for the underlying strength that would drive the recovery. |
The AI story didn't die just because NVDA hit $90, The economic growth story didn't end because SPX broke 5870. Those fundamentals were still there, waiting to reassert themselves once the policy noise subsided. |
What Actually Worked |
If you used my warnings to get defensive in March and April, you probably preserved capital during the chaos. That's real value. |
If you stayed defensive through the entire recovery? You missed the second-half rally that took SPX from April lows to new highs near 7000. |
The optimal play was using my breakdown signals to protect downside, then recognizing when the evidence changed and shifting back to offense. Easier said than done, but that's the game. |
The Real Scorecard |
Look, making public predictions is humbling business. You get some right, you get some wrong, and sometimes you're both brilliant and blind in the same trade. |
But here's what matters: my volatility warnings helped people navigate genuinely dangerous market conditions in spring 2025. Those breakdown signals were real and actionable. |
The miss was assuming that technical damage would last longer than fundamental strength. That's a lesson worth learning. |
I'll be sharing my full 2026 outlook in the TheoTrade Chatroom in early January. |
What I'm watching. What I'm positioning for. And what I think most people are gonna get wrong. |
If you want access to that... and everything else we do in there... click here to join before the new year. |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
|
No comments:
Post a Comment