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Don Kaufman here. |
I need to tell you about this Microsoft butterfly that just closed for 297%. |
Earlier this week I put on the trade at 63 cents. This morning, it was up over 100%. |
You know what everyone was saying? "Take the money and run, Don. Lock in your gains." |
Screw that. |
You want to know why I held? |
Because I've done this long enough to know the difference between a decent winner and a home run. This week alone, I closed two butterflies - Microsoft for 297% and Google for 203%. |
That's how you play this game. |
The Math Behind Stubborn |
Here's what people don't get about earnings flips. |
When you're sitting on a 100% winner and everyone's telling you to take profits, you need to look at the probabilities. |
Microsoft had a 45% chance of touching $515. That would make the spread worth 300%. |
I'll take that coin flip all day. Why settle for 100% when you can get 300%? |
Two Out of Seven Pays the Bills |
This week I did seven earnings flip trades. Only closed two profitably. People get all punchy about that - "Don, you only hit two out of seven!" |
So what? Those two winners - 297% and 203% - more than paid for the five losers. |
That's the beauty of defined risk trades. I throw $500 at each butterfly. Win or lose, I know my risk going in. But when they hit, they hit big. |
It's Not About Being Right |
People think this is about ego. It's not. It's about math. |
My track record might not be great hitting singles and doubles, but I'm pretty damn good at hitting home runs. Two out of seven butterflies this week, but those two made the entire week profitable. |
The Expected Move Edge |
Every earnings play I make is based on expected moves. Microsoft's expected move was about $15. When it started moving beyond that, the butterfly became a probability play. |
Amazon had a $15 expected move too. It moved $30. That's a two-sigma move - exactly why butterflies keep you in the game even when you're wrong. |
Here's The Thing |
You can't play this game scared. If you're gonna take every 50% or 100% winner that comes along, you'll never see the real money. |
The 300% winners - those pay for everything else. The losers, the small winners, the scratches. Everything. |
But you gotta have the stomach to hold when probabilities are in your favor. |
Ready to Stop Leaving Money on the Table? |
This is exactly what we teach in Earnings Flips. The probability analysis, the expected move calculations, the stubborn strategy that turns good trades into great ones. |
If you're tired of taking small profits while watching stocks continue moving in your favor, this is your program. |
Not in Earnings Flips yet? Click here to sign up and start turning earnings season into your personal ATM. |
Because next week, there's gonna be another round of earnings. Another chance for 200%, 300%, even 400% winners. |
You gonna be ready this time? |
To your success, |
Don Kaufman. |
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$1,900 in 10 Days? | The Dark Wire made:
$370... $331... $302... $248... | All in single trading days. | Friday 2PM: Blake Young reveals the system behind these daily payouts. | This mastermind happens once. | |
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