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3 Gold ETFs That Could Surge If the Fed Cuts Rates This Month
Written by Jordan Chussler. Published 9/1/2025.
Key Points
- Gold has traded sideways since hitting its all-time high of more than $3,500 in April.
- The Fed is poised to cut interest rates at its September FOMC meeting, which could propel precious metal prices.
- As investors vacate fixed income, gold ETFs could rally alongside the yellow metal.
While the market shifts out of tech and into defensive sectors, investors might see debt securities give way to precious metals this month. In his Jackson Hole speech on Aug. 22, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at potential rate cuts at the Fed's Sept. 16–17 FOMC meeting.
Stocks rallied after Powell's remarks, with the S&P 500 climbing 1.52% and flirting with its all-time high. But enthusiasm wasn't limited to equities: gold enthusiasts celebrated, as the safe-haven metal historically benefits when lower yields drive investors from fixed income into alternative assets.
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A lower-rate environment could boost the appeal of gold—and gold ETFs—if the Fed trims its benchmark federal funds rate. According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the odds of a rate cut next month stand at 88.3%.
Lower Rates Aren't the Only Bullish Factors for Gold
Since its April record high, gold has traded in a $3,180–$3,500 range, failing twice to break resistance in June and July before retreating. But as summer gives way to fall, several factors suggest a golden opportunity.
Beyond the Fed's impending policy shift, the U.S. dollar has weakened amid tariffs, sticky inflation, and President Donald Trump's persistent criticism of the central bank. As of late August, the greenback had fallen 10.69% from its year-to-date high of 109.98 to 98.22.
The dollar and gold share an inverse relationship: when the dollar weakens, gold typically strengthens, especially during periods of creeping inflation when gold serves as a hedge.
Geopolitical tensions also favor safe havens. Stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, along with Israel's military campaign in Gaza, have driven up demand for secure assets.
Last week, Swiss-based UBS Group raised its gold price target to $3,600, citing persistent U.S. macro risks, de-dollarization trends, and strong investment demand from ETFs and central banks—factors expected to push gold prices higher in the near to medium term.
Here are three gold-backed ETFs that offer exposure to gold without the need to hold physical bullion.
1. SPDR Gold Trust
The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA: GLD) is the largest gold ETF, backed by bullion stored in secure vaults. With $102.72 billion in assets under management (AUM), it was the first U.S.-listed gold ETF and the first commodity ETF backed by a physical asset. Since its inception on Nov. 18, 2004, GLD has gained nearly 597%.
GLD is highly liquid, averaging 10.14 million shares traded daily, and carries an expense ratio of 0.40%. Over the past 12 months, institutional inflows of $24.22 billion have outpaced outflows of $7.88 billion. Short interest stands at just 2.86% of its 333.4 million shares outstanding.
2. iShares Gold Trust
The iShares Gold Trust (NYSEARCA: IAU) manages $48.41 billion in AUM and has outperformed GLD, gaining over 648% since its inception on Jan. 28, 2005. The fund maintains solid liquidity with an average daily volume of 7.9 million shares.
IAU offers a lower expense ratio of 0.25% and features higher institutional ownership at 59.67% versus GLD's 42.19%. Its short interest is just 0.92% of 766.15 million shares outstanding—a 13.69% month-over-month decline.
3. SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust
The SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSEARCA: GLDM) offers the lowest expense ratio on this list at 0.01%. Launched on June 25, 2018, the ETF has amassed $16.3 billion in AUM and returned nearly 168%.
While less liquid than GLD or IAU, GLDM averages 3.78 million shares traded daily. Over the past year, institutional buying has outweighed selling, with $3.55 billion in inflows against $947.28 million in outflows. Short interest stands at 1.66% of its 244.35 million shares outstanding.
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