My 35-Cent Bet on SPX Weakness

(And Why Market Skew Made This a No-Brainer)  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

September 30, 2025   |   Read Online Don Kaufman here.  I was staring at two butterflies this morning and the market wanted to charge me $1.15 for a call butterfly that I could get for 35 cents on the put side.  Same damn trade.  This is exactly why most traders lose money - they don't understand how skew is robbing them blind. Here's what happened.  We were in one of those "slop fest" days where the S&P was basically dead flat, down a whopping 9 handles.  Perfect butterfly weather, right?… 🗂️ The Setup Box – NVDA Breakout Squeeze NVDA is sitting right below all-time highs. My position is structured for a 3-day breakout trade.  The thesis is simple: if we touch or break the highs, algos pile in, call buying rips, and we squeeze higher.  Target levels are around 185+, with weekly calls about $2 OTM likely to go ITM if the squeeze triggers. The risk is if NVDA stalls below highs – no breakout, no momentum. 🔥 Flow/Internals Glance – PATH & AI Mania UiPath (PATH) exploded +15% on nothing more than saying the word "Nvidia" in a collaboration headline.  Options sizzle index 26x normal, 50% volume executed at market (pure retail chasing). Overwhelming call-buying pressure, volume skewed to the ask/above. This is retail FOMO at its purest form, a "fund fest." 📈 Levels & Triggers – META, TSLA, NVDA 📌 META Already broke below expected move last week. If 720 cracks this week, stock is wide open to 700. Current move being amplified by order flow and partnership headlines (CoreWeave compute). 📌 TSLA EV tax credit of $7,500 expires Sept 30. Orders surged into Q3, deliveries intentionally deferred to Q4. Near-term: expect messy reaction to deliveries, massive implied volatility pricing like earnings. 📌 NVDA Watch for breakout squeeze above all-time highs triggering algo momentum. "Algo monkeys" flipping to buy calls if highs breach – self-reinforcing order flow   Update your email preferences or unsubscribe here © 2025 Disclaimer: Neither TheoTrade or any of its officers, directors, employees, other personnel, representatives, agents or independent contractors is, in such capacities, a licensed financial adviser, registered investment adviser, registered broker-dealer or FINRA|SIPC|NFA-member firm. TheoTrade does not provide investment or financial advice or make investment recommendations. TheoTrade is not in the business of transacting trades, nor does TheoTrade agree to direct your brokerage accounts or give trading advice tailored to your particular situation. Nothing contained in our content constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, promotion, or endorsement of any particular security, other investment product, transaction or investment.Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past Performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. PO Box 24790 Christiansted, Virgin Islands 00824, Virgin Islands, U.S. Terms of Service