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Eyes on the Sky: AST SpaceMobile Prepares for Commercial Launch
Written by Jordan Chussler. Published 9/2/2025.
The S&P 500's communication services sector leads all 11 sectors with a 16.79% year-to-date gain, driven by strong performances from T-Mobile US (NASDAQ: TMUS) (+15%), AT&T (NYSE: T) (+27%) and Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) (+38%).
But one under-the-radar communications stock has outpaced them all. AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ: ASTS) has surged 95.66% YTD, capturing the attention of investors seeking a Starlink alternative in the emerging space-based cellular broadband network industry.
ASTS: Tapping into the Final Frontier
The satellite internet market is projected to expand at a 13.9% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, fueled by demand for rural connectivity, high-speed broadband in remote regions, and digital services growth across industries.
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Key Points
- AST SpaceMobile has compiled a 95% year-to-date gain, and while a pullback may be underway, its medium- and long-term prospects are promising.
- The pre-revenue company’s strategic agreements and government contracts point to a cash-rich future.
- Agreements are in place with the U.S. government, AT&T, Vodafone, and Rakuten, among others.
While Elon Musk's Starlink—a subsidiary of SpaceX—dominates public awareness, its shares aren't readily accessible to most investors. AST offers a retail alternative by developing the first end-to-end space-based cellular broadband network that connects directly to standard mobile phones. Unlike Starlink—which requires a satellite dish and modem—AST's direct-to-device technology integrates seamlessly with existing smartphones.
Strategic Partnerships Are Key to AST SpaceMobile's Success
AST's revenue strategy adopts a wholesale model. Rather than competing with mobile carriers, the company partners with telecom giants—AT&T in North America, Vodafone (NASDAQ: VOD) in Europe and Rakuten (OTCMKTS: RKUNY) in Japan—to link its satellite network to their services.
For satellite deployment, AST collaborates with Arianespace, the Indian Space Research Organisation and Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin. Its Block2 "Bluebird" satellite arrived in India this month, aiming for launch within three to four months of arrival.
In February, AST secured a $43 million contract with the U.S. Space Development Agency, following successful tests of its BlueWalker-3 satellite. While modest compared to tech giants like Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR), this federal contract and validation of its government-application capabilities bolster AST's credibility.
This summer, AST informed the U.S. FCC of plans to launch up to 20 second-generation Bluebirds by year-end, targeting commercial service in early 2026. Though AST remains pre-revenue, institutional investors have committed $1.59 billion over the past 12 months—far outweighing $354.29 million in outflows—and the company holds over $1.5 billion in cash, according to its Q2 presentation.
Promising Technicals Despite a Pullback
Since hitting a five-year low in May 2024, ASTS has climbed roughly 1,911.5%, despite periods of consolidation. After peaking last August, the stock fluctuated between $20 and $32 until its recent surge beginning in late May.
In July, ASTS found secondary support near $41—its current trading level. Primary support lies around $20. Should the $41 level fail, the stock could test its 200-day moving average before potentially retracing roughly half its YTD gains.
However, the stock's Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 34.72 is approaching oversold territory (30 or below). Historically, similar RSI dips (green arrows) have attracted buyers, fueling subsequent rallies.
While a pullback would be natural after this year's rally, a deeper retracement would likely respect ASTS's upward trend and the growth potential once the company begins revenue generation.
AST SpaceMobile carries a consensus Moderate Buy rating from 10 analysts—five Buys and five Holds—and no Sell ratings.
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