Friday, August 29, 2025

When ‘Crushing It’ Isn't Enough: Nvidia’s Earnings Reality Check

And August PCE Numbers?
 
   
     
August PCE Numbers?
 
 
First, don’t miss today’s Daily Chart Setup trade idea down lower in this newsletter.

PCE — Personal Consumer Expenditures — numbers are out in the premarket this morning. Let's break down what got released. 

Come join me as we dive in and see what’s moving! 

Plus, as always, we have stocks popping and dropping so come find out what is moving this morning as I look for stocks and do some live premarket analysis on SPX, SPY, NDX, QQQ, Russell, IWM and other stocks that are potential plays for the day. 

 
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When ‘Crushing It’ Isn't Enough: Nvidia’s Earnings Reality Check

Nvidia just reported earnings, and Wall Street is having a meltdown over what I call "the world's most successful failure." Picture this: Your straight-A student comes home with a 95% and you ask why it wasn't 98%. 

That's literally what happened here.


The ‘Disaster’ That Wasn't

Nvidia beat earnings ($1.05 vs $1.00 expected) and revenue ($46.7B vs $46.2B). But their data center revenue "missed" by $200 million on a $41 billion number. That's like missing your diet goal by half a pound and declaring it a complete failure.

The stock fell as much as 2.8% overnight because apparently, 56% year-over-year growth isn't impressive enough anymore. This was the second consecutive quarter data centers missed estimates, which tells me analysts have been smoking premium hopium expecting infinite exponential growth.


The China Wild Card

Here's where it gets interesting…

Zero H20 chip sales to China this quarter. But Nvidia is stockpiling inventory like it’s preparing for Black Friday. Why? It’s betting Trump might ease restrictions, allowing China sales in exchange for 15% revenue to the U.S. government.

Translation: billions in potential revenue currently not priced into the stock. It's like having a forgotten lottery ticket in your back pocket.


The Smart Money Moves

While everyone panics, Nvidia authorized another $60 billion in buybacks. That's not a worried company—that's a company that thinks its stock is cheap.

Investment Opportunities:

 
Nvidia — Buy the overreaction. Still dominates AI chips, growing 56% annually
 
AMD — Finally a real competitor, targeting 6-8% market share by 2027 with MI350 series
 
Infrastructure plays — Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Broadcom (AVGO) benefit from $375B annual AI spending
 
This "miss" reminds me of Mike Tyson's quote…

"Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth." 

Nvidia just got reality-checked, but it’s still standing, still profitable, still dominating.

Global AI infrastructure spending hits $500 billion next year. Cloud providers remain 50% of Nvidia's business. Blackwell architecture grew 17% sequentially.

While Wall Street has a tantrum over a 0.5% revenue miss, smart investors ask: "Do I want the world's most dominant AI company at a discount?"

The best opportunities often come disguised as disappointments.

Now be sure to join me live at 9:15 a.m. ET for “Morning Monster,” my market-open livestream on YouTube!

 
 
‘Morning Monster’ Is Starting NOW!
I’m also live at 5 p.m. ET on Tuesdays for “30 Minutes of Awesome” — bring your ticker and I’ll analyze it in real time!

And be sure to hit that Subscribe button on my YouTube page!
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Could We Dee Gold Hit $10,000 this year? 
 
 
This chart pattern suggests we could…
 
 
Last time I saw something similar was back in 2020… and it helped me turn $250k to over $1.4 million
 
 
Get Full Details Here
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Today’s Daily Chart Setup: Marathon Petroleum (MPC)  
 
 
 

This idea came directly from my Daily Chart Setup that automatically signals potential plays. 
 
MPC is a new potential entry. Target: 186.73 Stop below: 157.0
MPC has a historical win rate of 91.67%
MPC has a profit factor of 6.856
MPC trades last 31 trading days on average over 12 trades since 2011.

See the secret behind these signals here!

This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. Always remember that past performance is not indicative of future results.


How the Daily Chart Setup Works

Here’s a more detailed description of how the pattern triggers:

1. The price breaks upward through the orange Market Roadmap line. 

2. Then the price goes up and down while staying above the line. Eventually, it comes down to touch the line again — this could take days, weeks or even months. 

3. Once it touches the line and starts moving back up, that signals an entry. 

I use Fibonacci levels for for profit targets and stop losses, and these two tools combined have helped me achieve a 77% win rate over the past six-plus years!

You can grab my Market Roadmap Indicator here for just $5 — less than a cup of coffee at most places!
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading

I host my “Morning Monster” livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then “30 Minutes of Awesome” at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!

Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!

I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.

I've been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it's the Eagle Scout in me. 


*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 
   
 

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