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Costco and Ross: 2 Ways to Play the Consumer Divide
Written by Chris Markoch. Published 8/24/2025.
Key Points
- Costco benefits from higher-income shoppers who remain resilient and value bulk buying.
- Ross Stores thrives as consumers trade down and seek off-price deals.
- Investors can hedge consumer uncertainty by owning both COST and ROST.
Retail earnings season is underway, and a recurring theme will be the health of the consumer. The Federal Reserve's rate hikes have widened the gap between low- and middle-income households and their high-income counterparts.
This divide shows up in uneven spending patterns. Persistent inflation continues to strain lower-income households. Meanwhile, higher-income consumers remain resilient, though even they are demonstrating value-seeking behavior: retailers such as Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) have noted a "trade-down" effect, with affluent shoppers turning to Walmart for groceries and essentials.
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Get my full take on this exciting play right here…Given these dynamics, retail earnings reports will increasingly hinge on which consumer segment a company targets—and what that implies for its current and future pricing power.
Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) and Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ: ROST) are two retail stocks that serve as useful barometers for pricing power across different consumer segments.
Costco Showcases Premium Pricing Power
Over the past five years, Costco has outperformed its peers, delivering a total return—including share price appreciation and reinvested dividends—exceeding 220%. In concrete terms, a $10,000 investment in August 2020 would now exceed $32,000.
Costco's model relies on its annual membership fee, a dependable source of revenue. In September 2024, the company implemented its first fee increase in seven years, yet maintained a global renewal rate north of 90%.
After joining, members are motivated to shop and often "trade up" by purchasing bulk or higher-margin items. The company currently boasts a robust gross margin of 11.25%.
Looking to 2025 and beyond, Costco plans to expand its global footprint, which should support further revenue and earnings growth. That outlook helps justify the stock's premium valuation at over 54x forward earnings.
Ross Stores Offers Value-Oriented Pricing Power
During economic uncertainty, budget-minded shoppers "trade down." Ross Stores caters to this "treasure hunt" clientele, offering deep discounts for value-seeking consumers.
In its first-quarter earnings report for fiscal 2026, the company warned of margin pressure from tariffs—about 50% of its inventory is sourced from China. However, the company remains a favorite of analysts due to its solid fundamentals, backed by strong traffic, comparable sales growth and margin expansion.
The consensus analyst price target on ROST is $159.40. While some caution that tariffs could limit upside, the shares have still delivered more than a 72% total return over the past five years.
COST or ROST Stock: Why Not Both?
While diversification is key, Costco and Ross offer different value propositions—and so there's room for both stocks in a balanced portfolio.
COST is growth-oriented yet also defensive: high-income consumers continue spending, supporting the membership model and allowing Costco to implement modest price increases.
Shareholders have enjoyed robust price gains and a 22-year track record of dividend increases. The shares have outpaced the broader market, and analysts expect that trend to persist.
ROST is more cyclical in nature, but its value proposition remains compelling. Off-price chains like Ross continue to draw value-driven shoppers, boosting traffic and comparable-store sales. Even if the Fed eventually cuts rates, cost-conscious consumers will likely remain vigilant about stretching their dollars.
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