Friday, August 29, 2025

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For Your Education and Enjoyment

Costco Faces Downgrades, Death Cross, Insider Selling

Written by Dan Schmidt. Published 8/28/2025.

Costco cart

Key Points

  • COST shares made a new all-time high in February, but have failed to maintain that momentum over the last quarter.
  • Despite continuing to produce strong earnings and membership growth, the stock is under pressure from a range of headwinds, including technical and fundamental trends.
  • COST investors may want to consider these factors before 'buying the dip' in the stock.

Sometimes it's just not your year, even if you're at the top of your game. Costco Wholesale Corp. (NASDAQ: COST) hit a record high of $1,076 in February and seemed poised for another banner year after beating estimates in fiscal Q2 2025.

But the second quarter turned hope into despair, as the market piled on COST shares and wouldn't let them recover.

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After ranking among the biggest winners in 2023 and 2024, the stock is up just 2% year-to-date in 2025, and several troubling trends have emerged. If you're considering a new entry point in COST, here are three factors to weigh before putting any capital to work.

Analyst Downgrades Despite Earnings Success

Costco reported fiscal Q3 2025 earnings on May 29 after the market closed, once again impressing investors and lifting the stock 5% over the next two sessions. However, that rally was short-lived as analysts cooled on the report.

The shares saw two price-target increases after the Q3 release but also two cuts from Loop Capital and Evercore ISI. Earlier this month, Erste Group Bank issued a rare downgrade, moving its rating from Buy to Hold.

Erste Group analysts pointed to Costco's lofty valuation relative to other retail peers and anticipate softer sales ahead.

At more than 53x trailing earnings and a forward P/E of 52.2, COST trades at nearly twice the industry average of 27. While these multiples have eased slightly since June, they still demand ongoing outperformance.

Costco will need to continue surpassing expectations to justify this valuation. The stock's muted response after reporting 5.7% comparable sales growth underscores just how high the bar has been set.

Death Cross on the Daily Chart

Following the May 29 earnings release, COST shares failed to hit a new all-time high. To many investors' surprise, the subsequent selloff quickly gathered momentum.

The price fell through its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and then breached the 200-day SMA in July. A brief breakout attempt in August fizzled out, forming one of technical analysts' most bearish signals: the Death Cross.

COST stock chart

A death cross occurs when the 50-day SMA falls below the 200-day SMA, signaling a shift to bearish momentum. COST shares plunged with fierce velocity after the crossover.

Investors can no longer rely on the 50-day or 200-day lines for support. The stock will need to decisively reclaim and hold above these levels before a new uptrend can take hold. But with lower highs stacking up amid other bearish indicators, the momentum is likely to stay negative.

Insiders Unloading Their Shares

Insiders may sell stock for reasons ranging from diversification to personal expenditures. Yet when they consistently offload shares despite strong earnings and margin expansion, it can be a red flag.

Costco's insider transactions have tilted heavily toward net selling over the past year.

COST insider sells

Insiders include C-suite executives, vice presidents, directors, and other key employees with significant equity stakes. Individuals holding 10% or more, or those in high-ranking positions, must report their trades to the SEC, making them public.

Insider selling has accelerated over the last 12 months after relatively quiet periods in 2022 and 2023. Executives, including CEO Roland Michael Vachris and EVPs Gary Millerchip and Claudine Adamo, have been net sellers for eight consecutive quarters.

While these sales represent a small fraction of total holdings, multiple executives are redeploying capital elsewhere. This trend has likely given investors pause, possibly leading them to consider more affordable competitors.


 
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