Tuesday, April 1, 2025

Supply Lines: Soaring uncertainty

A gauge of trade worries hit a record high heading into President Donald Trump's announcement Wednesday of higher tariffs on some of the US'
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A gauge of trade worries hit a record high heading into President Donald Trump's announcement Wednesday of higher tariffs on some of the US's biggest trading partners.

The Bloomberg Economics Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index topped 10 for the first time, exceeding the previous high of 9.48 set earlier this month. During Trump's previous term in office, the number peaked at 4.58.

The concerns were apparent in the comments section of the Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey released Monday:

  • "Tariffs are a constant and increasing source of uncertainty," a computer and electronics maker said.
  • "Our biggest concern is import taxes and the increase in price that it causes.," a food maker said.
  • "There's optimism, but there's also an abundance of trepidation," a machinery producer said.

In a Rose Garden ceremony planned for 3 p.m. in Washington tomorrow, Trump will announce his so-called reciprocal tariffs, a step that — regardless of the outcome — will put his stamp on economic history, according to the latest Bloomberg Big Take from Shawn Donnan and Enda Curran.

But the time and place are about the only key details made public so far. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday the announcement would feature "country-based" tariffs. The president is also "committed to implementing" sectoral duties, she said, but they're not the focus of the event Wednesday.

Auto tariffs, however, are still set to take effect Thursday and Detroit is making a last-ditch effort to seek some relief from the White House. 

Big Take Podcast: Everything We Know About Trump's Planned Tariffs

Dovetailing with the tariff announcement, Trump administration officials are also due to submit a report on China's compliance with the "Phase One" trade deal Trump negotiated with Beijing during his first term. In that agreement, China committed to buying an extra $200 billion worth of US goods — a goal it missed.

Meanwhile, the European Union said it will use a broad range of options to retaliate if Trump follows through on his threat to impose so-called reciprocal tariffs on the 27-nation bloc.

Read More: US Recession Worries Raise 'Gray Swan' Risk for Bond Investors

Trying to head off tariffs on its shipments to the US, Vietnam announced it slashed import levies on a range of products, including liquefied natural gas and automobiles, according to a statement on the government's website. Japan's prime minister announced support measures to help businesses cope with the levies. 

Brendan Murray in London

Bloomberg's tariff tracker follows all the twists and turns of global trade wars. Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

    • "Tariffs are a constant and increasing source of uncertainty," a computer and electronics maker said.
    • "Our biggest concern is import taxes and the increase in price that it causes.," a food maker said.
    • "There's optimism, but there's also an abundance of trepidation," a machinery producer said.

Charted Territory

Tariff rush | South Korea's exports rebounded in March, in a sign of front-loading by companies ahead of an expected fresh wave of tariffs from President Donald Trump's escalating campaign. The value of shipments adjusted for working-day differences increased 5.5% from a year earlier, according to data released Tuesday by the customs office. That compared with a 5.9% drop initially reported for February.

Today's Must Reads

  • China's manufacturing activity improved at the fastest pace in four months, with the Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index rising to 51.2 in March. Elsewhere, activity in some of Asia's largest manufacturing nations slowed further.
  • Air Canada says demand for flights between Canadian and US cities is weak for the spring and summer months, as Canadians respond to the trade war by avoiding trips south.
  • The Trump administration pointed to India's high tariffs on American farm goods. Separately, China is willing to buy more Indian products to balance trade, Beijing's Ambassador Xu Feihong said. 
  • Demand for UK factory exports tumbled at the fastest pace in over 1 ½ years, as orders dried up and confidence wilted under the threat of a tit-for-tat tariffs skirmish with the Trump administration.
  • Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has signaled he could withhold promised Chips Act grants as he pushes companies in line for federal semiconductor subsidies to substantially expand their US projects.
  • Trump has included potash among the minerals that need an immediate ramp up in US production. That's unlikely to significantly break America's reliance on fertilizer imports.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Based on comments from the administration so far, Bloomberg Economics has estimated possible outcomes and looked at what they could mean for the US economy. Calculating a maximal approach could add up to 28 percentage points to average US tariff rates, according to BE.
  • US grievances with the European Union run deep, creating scope for tariff increases of as much as 52 percentage points. Bloomberg Economics says that could wipe out the bulk of exports to the US in years to come and put up to 2% of GDP at risk.
  • For Bloomberg Economics trade analysis: BECO MODELS TRADE
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see BI RAIL, BI TRCK and BI SHIP and BI 3PLS
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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