Wednesday, January 8, 2025

Supply Lines: Tariffs on Denmark

Donald Trump regularly lobs economic threats at major US trading partners. But he took aim Tuesday at one of the smaller ones, warning that
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Donald Trump regularly lobs economic threats at major US trading partners. But he took aim Tuesday at one of the smaller ones, warning that he'd "tariff Denmark at a very high level" if the country with an economy the size of Missouri's resists his offer to buy Greenland.

While Denmark ranks just 41st on the latest list of top US trading partners — with $14.6 billion in goods trade from January through November last year — higher prices on Danish products could be felt acutely by the millions of Americans who use hearing aids or take medication for diabetes or obesity.

Read More: Trump's Relentless Greenland Fixation Puts Denmark in Spotlight

More than 75% of US insulin imports by value came from Denmark last year through November, according to Michigan State University supply chain professor Jason Miller. Between 25% and 30% of imports of hearing aids — both completed as well as parts and accessories for the devices — came from Denmark.

Tariffs on Danish products could also threaten various pharmaceuticals and medicines, including blockbuster GLP-1 weight-loss and diabetes drugs.

Of course, it's unclear what Trump means by "very high," and how such import taxes would impact Novo Nordisk — the maker of  Ozempic and Wegovy — because the Danish pharmaceutical giant has manufacturing operations in the US, Denmark and elsewhere.

Read More: Ozempic Maker Novo Nordisk Has Denmark's Economy Hooked

Even so, "I don't think the American people are in a mood to incur higher costs for pharmaceuticals and hearing aids," Miller said in a LinkedIn post. "Given how much of an issue that inflation was during the last election, anything that would increase inflation doesn't seem like a wise policy at the moment."

US tariffs aimed across the Atlantic would also incur the collective wrath of the 27-nation European Union. The EU must be ready to defend itself against protectionist trade measures by other countries, including any new steps taken by Trump, the bloc's industry chief said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

Video: EU Can't Risk Complacency Ahead of Trump, Sejourne Says

During the wide-ranging press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate, the US president-elect said the self-ruling Arctic territory that's part of Denmark is important to American security. He doubled down on his insistence that the US must reclaim the Panama Canal.

Trade Pressure

When a reporter pressed him to rule out economic or military coercion to gain control of Greenland and the canal, Trump said, "I'm not gonna commit to that. No. It might be that you'll have to do something."

Jennifer Welch, chief geoeconomics analyst for Bloomberg Economics, said Trump is much more likely to use tools like tariffs to achieve his goals than military force, which would involve significant risk.

"Trump is more likely to dial up the economic and political pressure to secure concessions from Canada on trade imbalances, obtain access from Denmark to resources  from Denmark (Denmark and Greenland) and limitations on the influence of US competitors (Panama)," Welch wrote in a research note on the Bloomberg Terminal.

Trump ruled out using the military to pressure Canada — the US's No. 2 trading partner — but said he'd use "economic force" to make the country the US's 51st state. 

Read More: Canada's Trade Surplus With US Widens Ahead of Trump's Return

He also said the US doesn't need "anything" that Canada produces and that he'd rather make cars in Detroit instead of relying on the highly integrated continental auto supply chain, and not buy Canadian lumber or dairy.

He also  promised to rename the Gulf of Mexico the Gulf of America, and said he'd put "very serious tariffs" on Mexico and Canada as a penalty for the illegal drugs he says are coming across the borders at record numbers.

"We want to get along with everybody," Trump said, "but it takes two to tango."

Laura Curtis in Los Angeles

Click here for more of Bloomberg.com's most-read stories about trade, supply chains and shipping.

Charted Territory

Electricity costs | More Chinese regions are cutting electricity prices to help out their embattled industries, which is likely to worsen the squeeze on profits at power suppliers. The richest coastal provinces have reduced their benchmark thermal power prices by about 10% from last year, according to a briefing by UBS Group AG this week. The bank expects power demand for coal, the country's mainstay fuel, to fall by 4% in 2025.

Today's Must Reads

  • The US's latest move to expand its list of Chinese military companies risks doing more than tanking the shares of some of its most valuable companies: It also threatens to accelerate decoupling of the world's biggest economies.
  • India's government lowered its economic growth projection for the fiscal year to the weakest since the pandemic, with economists saying even that forecast may be too optimistic.
  • A persistent lithium glut and the prospect that some mines could be restarted if prices rise means the battery metal is unlikely to mount a significant recovery this year.
  • A British politician said he had "almost zero confidence" in the integrity of Shein's supply chain following a heated exchange with a representative of the fast-fashion retailer in London.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • Congestion across key ports in Asia could ease gradually in the coming weeks after a 2% drop over the past two weeks took it to a five-month low, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.
  • Cosco's profit outlook remains largely intact despite its inclusion on the Pentagon's blacklist. While it might discourage US firms from dealing directly with Cosco, the fallout is likely to be limited, Bloomberg Intelligence says.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see BI RAIL, BI TRCK and BI SHIP and BI 3PLS
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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