Wednesday, November 6, 2024

Next China: Ready for Trump

Beijing braces for Trump's return

Hi, this is Rebecca Choong Wilkins in Hong Kong, where I watched that red wave sweep across the US electoral map while wondering what Beijing is making of Donald Trump moving into the White House again soon.

There's no doubt Chinese officials were closely watching given the stakes are mammoth: Trump's return may reignite a trade war that could devastate the world's second-largest economy.

His threat to slap tariffs of as much as 60% on Chinese goods could wind up decimating trade between the two, according to Bloomberg Economics. UBS has said levies at that rate would more than halve China's annual growth rate.

Donald Trump at an event in West Palm Beach, Florida on Nov. 6. Photographer: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg

Still, Beijing should be better prepared than in the past to deal with whatever the next Trump term throws at it. Read our story about how China may respond here.

For starters, US efforts to rein in China's tech ambitions have fallen short in some respects, leaving it in the lead in certain core areas.

Also, China is now the undisputed world leader in electric vehicles. BYD just zoomed past Tesla in terms of quarterly revenue (take that Elon). And the Chinese automaker sold a whopping 500,000 passenger cars in October, its best month ever.

Beijing has also moved to shore up ties with nations it has sparred with in recent years, buying some insurance against any rise in tensions with the US. That explains the surprising sight of Chinese and Indian troops swapping snacks along a border they fought over not long ago.

Of course, Beijing could respond to tariffs with hardball of its own. It could target US agricultural exports or roll out export curbs on raw materials the US needs for its strategic technologies. It also now has a formal process for sanctioning foreign firms.

Xi would certainly love to avoid the distraction of another trade war. He's grappling with economic difficulties at home that are exacerbated by a lingering property market slump and deflationary pressures. Just as Trump was wrapping up his win, Xi was exhorting his underlings to meet their annual economic targets.

In fact, Chinese lawmakers are gathering this week for an event that investors are closely watching for any signs that the stimulus they crave is coming. A similar conclave in 2023 signed off on a decision to raise the budget deficit.

And that roaring EV industry has not only angered the US, but now the European Union has piled on with tariffs of its own.

China has officially said very little about the US election, though state media blasted it as a money-wasting exercise in chaos. Behind the scenes, Chinese officials are very likely deciding how to counterpunch if and when Trump throws his first jab.

Preparing for Trump? Here's what to read, watch and listen to:

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