Wednesday, October 30, 2024

US-China tech war heats up

China's tech rise shows no sign of stopping

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Are US efforts to stymie China's technological rise working? Not really.

The world's No. 2 economy is charging ahead in many of the 13 key technologies President Xi Jinping outlined nearly a decade ago as a priority for his country's development, according to a 48-page report from analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence and Bloomberg Economics.

Though public mentions of Xi's flagship Made in China 2025 program may have fallen in recent years, the industrial policy blueprint intended to make the nation a leader in emerging tech has largely been successful, the research shows.

Electric vehicles, high-speed rail and solar panels are among the five areas where China has achieved global leadership positions, while it's catching up fast in another seven sectors. In much of the world, Chinese-made smartphones are ubiquitous.

And US curbs haven't diminished the appetite among private firms to secure poll position in international markets. BYD, China's top automaker, is producing and selling cars abroad despite US tariffs of 102.5%. A top executive said she expects overseas deliveries to account for almost half of total sales in the future.

But the US is having some success in preventing China's development of high-end semiconductors, the foundation for many of the other technologies. Beijing is now struggling to access and manufacture the most advanced chips for use in artificial intelligence and military systems.

Even so, the American export controls are spurring Beijing to redouble efforts to achieve breakthroughs in semiconductor technology. While it still lags the US, Chinese firms have surprised policymakers with their progress in recent years.

All that is a problem for whoever wins next week's US election.

Beijing's success so far and persistence to catch up shows the limits of Donald Trump's plan to intensify tariffs and Vice President Kamala Harris' continuation of export controls and sanctions.

A tough stance on China may be the only issue that unites both candidates, but it's one that may end up isolating the US around the world.

Workers make liquid crystal displays and modules in Gao'an City on Jan. 10.  Photographer: NurPhoto/Getty Images

Global Must Reads

European leaders are growing concerned as a series of votes on the region's eastern periphery test a decades-long march toward Western integration and Russian President Vladimir Putin's longstanding attempt to halt it. In addition to Moscow's war on Ukraine, elections in Moldova, Georgia and even European Union member state Bulgaria show the Kremlin's hybrid campaign to exploit divisions in countries once in the Soviet orbit has been making gains.

Tens of thousands of conspiracy theorists who believe Trump won the 2020 US election are planning to monitor and film polling places in swing states on Nov. 5 in an exercise civil-rights groups say risks suppressing voter turnout. Organizers in Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin and elsewhere use the messaging app Telegram to coordinate observation of voting locations and ballot boxes, according to documents released by the pro-transparency group Distributed Denial of Secrets.

Rachel Reeves presents the new UK Labour government's first budget today that will include a major package of tax hikes and extra borrowing likely to define British politics for the rest of the decade. Reeves is the first female Chancellor of the Exchequer in the 800-year history of the role and is expected to set out about £35 billion ($45.5 billion) in tax rises and spending cuts.

Venâncio Mondlane, who was declared the runner-up in this month's disputed Mozambican presidential election, called for a week-long strike and demonstrations starting tomorrow. Tensions in the gas-rich southeast African nation have escalated after the vote that observers said was marred by irregularities that favored the ruling Frelimo party. Security forces killed at least 11 people and injured dozens during protests last week, according to Human Rights Watch.

Protesters confront security forces in Maputo, Mozambique, on Oct. 24. Photographer: Alfredo Zuniga/AFP/Getty Images

Indian Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah authorized a wave of violence across Canada that included extortion and homicides, the North American nation's deputy foreign minister, David Morrison, told a parliamentary committee. India's Ministry of External Affairs today didn't immediately respond to the allegations against Shah. It previously dismissed Canada's accusations that India's government was involved in the alleged attacks against Sikh activists as "baseless."

Israel is considering a deal to end the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon that would see the militant group's fighters move away from the Israeli border.

The ruling party in diamond-rich Botswana looks set to extend its almost six-decade rule of the southern African nation and secure a second five-year term for President Mokgweetsi Masisi in elections today.

Australia will invest A$21 billion ($14 billion) over a decade to ramp up domestic missile and munitions manufacturing, in the latest step by the center-left Labor government to develop a long-range strike capability in the face of a regional arms race.

Washington Dispatch

How will the US election impact your money? Bloomberg News experts will answer your questions in a live Q&A today at 10:30am ET. Send questions to bloombergqa@bloomberg.net

With the Trump campaign still trying to contain the fallout over a comedian calling Puerto Rico "an island of garbage" at last weekend's Madison Square Garden rally, a remark by President Joe Biden gave it an opening.

Biden, criticizing Trump in a video call with a Latino group, said: "The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters. His demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it's un-American. It's totally contrary to everything we've done, everything we've been."

The White House disputed the punctuation of the remark, saying Biden intended to say "supporter's," criticizing only the remarks by the comic. He subsequently took to X to clarify his remarks.

But Trump and other Republicans eagerly seized on the comment, which echoed Hillary Clinton's description of some Trump supporters in 2016 as "a basket of deplorables." The Republican nominee himself cited the remarks in a fundraising appeal last night, shortly after Harris addressed a huge rally at the National Mall. "They can call you garbage today, but in one week we'll have the last laugh," Trump wrote.

One thing to watch today: US third-quarter GDP data will be released.

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Chart of the Day

After years of weak growth, economists expect South Africa's finance minister to raise economic forecasts for the next two years in a budget update today, with sentiment bolstered by a new unity government and improved power supply. Africa's biggest economy may also benefit from a pick up in spending because of lower interest rates as a revival finally appears to be on track.

And Finally

The restart of the nuclear-power plant closest to the epicenter of Japan's devastating 2011 earthquake this week was hailed by the government as a major step toward reviving atomic energy. But it's also been a reminder of the crippling shortage of skilled workers that could slow that comeback. At Onagawa, near a small fishing port in northeastern Japan, more than a third of its technical staff have never operated a reactor before and have practiced only on simulators.

The Onagawa nuclear-power plant.  Photographer: Kyodo/AP Photo

More from Bloomberg

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