Friday, October 18, 2024

Supply Lines: Water stress

A growing threat to the world's food security has been highlighted this week by analyses of the impact of stressed water supplies. Climate c

A growing threat to the world's food security has been highlighted this week by analyses of the impact of stressed water supplies.

Climate change and rising competition for resources mean that one-quarter of all crops are grown where water supply is either highly stressed or highly unreliable, or both, the World Resources Institute said. While farmers have been able to adapt to a certain extent, producing crops in these areas puts food supplies in jeopardy, according to the think tank that's focused on climate solutions.

That's a concern given that the growing global population may need 56% more calories in 2050 than it did in 2010. Food supplies have already been strained on multiple fronts — from erratic weather and conflict to supply chain snarls and trade protectionism. While the impact of water scarcity on food has been broadly known, the WRI aims to quantify the effects using its Aqueduct Food data platform.

A lack of water is a hidden and growing driver of hunger that affects one in every 11 people, the WRI said. Rice, wheat and corn — which make up more than half of the world's food calories — are particularly vulnerable, with a third of those crops grown using highly stressed or variable water supplies, according to the WRI.

Another report this week also laid bare the water threat. Almost 3 billion people and more than half of the world's food production are in areas experiencing a worsening water shortage, according to the Global Commission on the Economics of Water.

Water scarcity could cause high-income countries' GDP to shrink by 8% on average by mid-century and a drop of up to 15% in poorer countries, it said.

Irrigated and Rainfed Crops

Just 10 countries — including China, India and the US — account for 72% of the world's irrigated crops, with two-thirds of these supplies facing high-to-extremely high levels of water stress, the WRI analysis showed. Rainfed crops still make up two-thirds of all output, but face erratic weather.

Still, water woes don't automatically spell crisis, according to the WRI's Liz Saccoccia and Samantha Kuzma.

Businesses and governments need to first understand water risks using data and set targets to align with sustainability goals, they said. Shifting high-meat diets toward less water-intensive foods, or cutting back on food loss and waste, would help manage water more sustainably.

Agnieszka de Sousa in London

Charted Territory

Financing deforestationBanks and asset managers are continuing to channel tens of billions of dollars into companies whose operations directly threaten the future of tropical rainforests including the Amazon, according to a new study. The finance industry has allocated at least $77 billion to such clients over the past two years, Rainforest Action Network and nine other nonprofits in the Forest and Finance Coalition said on Wednesday. The findings are being made public as negotiators from around the world prepare to meet in Colombia to take stock of progress made on protecting biodiversity since their last summit in 2022. (Read the full story here.)

Today's Must Reads

  • Voters in US swing states overwhelmingly favor Kamala Harris' idea to ban price-gouging, but it only addresses a small sliver of grocery-buying occasions.
  • New Zealand is escalating a long-running trade dispute with Canada over access for its dairy exporters to the Canadian market.
  • Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto promised free school lunches as part of his successful campaign. While economists and investors applaud the ambition, it's the price tag and risks in delivering the program without waste and corruption that has them concerned. 
  • The number of people in South Africa able to meet their minimum nutritional needs slipped last year, as a weak economy and inflationary pressures hit households and deepened food insecurity.
  • China's corn harvest could be about to record its worst slump since the turn of the century, although that still might not be enough to lift prices in such a moribund market.
  • Instagrammable drinks and a comfortable place to hang have turned Starbucks into a hot spot for kids, but at what cost?
  • Italy's vineyards were already grappling with a changing climate and changing tastes. A spike in borrowing costs makes their lives even more difficult. 

Coming Up

Bloomberg New Economy: The world faces a wide range of critical challenges, ranging from ongoing military conflict and a worsening climate crisis to the unforeseen consequences of deglobalization and accelerating artificial intelligence. But these challenges are not insurmountable. Join us in Sao Paulo on Oct. 22-23 as leaders in business and government from across the globe come together to discuss the biggest issues of our time and mark the path forward. Click here to  register.

On the Bloomberg Terminal

  • North American large-tractor and combine retail sales fell 28% in September — the biggest drop since 2017 — amid low crop prices and weakening farm fundamentals, according to Bloomberg Intelligence
  • Concerns with the FDA's proposed framework for assessing chemicals in foods already on the market are adding to unease around the agency's current regulatory practices for food safetyBloomberg Law writes.
  • Run SPLC after an equity ticker on Bloomberg to show critical data about a company's suppliers, customers and peers.
  • Use the AHOY function to track global commodities trade flows.
  • See DSET CHOKE for a dataset to monitor shipping chokepoints. 
  • For freight dashboards, see {BI RAIL}, {BI TRCK} and {BI SHIP} and {BI 3PLS}
  • Click HERE for automated stories about supply chains.
  • On the Bloomberg Terminal, type NH FWV for FreightWaves content.
  • See BNEF for BloombergNEF's analysis of clean energy, advanced transport, digital industry, innovative materials, and commodities.

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