87% Chance of a Kamala Win? Here's How to Prepare... Betting markets favor a Donald Trump win… The RealClearPolitics Betting Average tracks odds from sportsbooks and prediction markets. It’s a snapshot of how bettors are viewing the outcome of the election. And it gives Trump a 64% chance of winning the White House. That sounds about right. Despite what his detractors say, he’s now more popular than ever among voters. And recent polling shows him making gains nationally and in key swing states. But I’ve been a professional investor for more than 40 years. And I can’t ignore what stock market history says about the prospect of a shock win for Kamala Harris. This from Kiplinger… In the 23 presidential elections since 1928, 14 were preceded by [stock market] gains in the three months prior. In 12 of those 14 instances, the incumbent (or the incumbent party) won the White House. In eight of nine elections preceded by three months of stock market losses, incumbents were sent packing. That’s an 87% accuracy rate. The benchmark U.S. stock market index, the S&P 500, is up about 7% since the start of July. The Dow and the Nasdaq are also showing gains over that time. If history is any guide, Harris, not Trump, is likely to be the next president of the United States. And that’s not the only indicator pointing to a Harris win. Since 1932, the incumbent party has always won reelection unless a recession occurred during the current term (in this case, President Biden’s term). And right now, no matter how folks may be feeling about the U.S. economy, it’s not in recession. Data released today shows it grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the recent quarter. That’s less than forecast. But it’s nowhere near recession levels. But as I told the more than 5,500 folks who joined me for my free-to-view “The Day-After Summit” last night, the real story I’m preparing for is not what happens on Election Day. It’s what could be coming the day after– next Wednesday, November 6. It doesn’t matter who you’re voting for. That’s when unprecedented social strife could be unleashed as both sides contest the election. It could also set off a chain reaction on Wall Street – including a bout of massive stock market volatility. This could be the most bitterly fought post-election battle in modern U.S. history – worse than Gore v. Bush in 2000 and Trump v. Biden in 2020. Now, the best thing we can hope for is a clear winner on November 6. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we still didn’t have a clear winner come Inauguration Day, on January 20, 2025. Fortunately, there’s a way you can not only avoid big potential losses… but also profit… as the most chaotic chapter of the election plays out. First, it’s important you understand that this isn’t my first big election call. “Age of Chaos” Is Entering Warp Speed Back in December 2023, I made a presentation about the “Californication” of America. I warned that Biden would drop out of the presidential race and be replaced by a California Democrat who would spread the state’s ultra-liberal policies across America. (I predicted that candidate would be California governor Gavin Newsom, not former California Attorney General Kamala Harris. But the results would be the same.) I also warned that we were entering an “Age of Chaos” – a time of unprecedented chaos and danger for Americans. That presentation has now been viewed more than 3.2 million times. Folks who tuned in heard the steps I’ve recommended taking to prepare. But none of that compares to the volatility that could happen next week, as the Age of Chaos enters warp speed. You see, this isn’t about the votes we cast for president. On November 7, the 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet behind closed doors at the Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C., to vote on their policy for key interest rates. Right now, markets are expecting a quarter-point cut to follow the half-point cut we got in September. But it could be another half-point cut. Or the Fed could decide to leave rates where they are. That’s three more market-moving variables that will compound uncertainty after the election. In normal times, Fed decisions are big market drivers. But this is coming right after perhaps the most contentious presidential election in modern history. The entire country will be on edge. That could lead to even more severe stock market volatility as these two shocks hit our political and financial systems at once. Stocks could whipsaw violently as investors try to cope with all the uncertainty. And from what I’m hearing, investors are already getting nervous… Yesterday, a colleague said she recently called her broker about a routine question about her IRA. He immediately asked, “Are you calling me to move your money out of the markets?” He went on to say he’d had a deluge of such calls over recent days due to fears of election chaos. You may be worried about your own nest egg. And that’s only natural. We’re humans, after all. And as humans, we tend to crowd-source our decision-making, especially when we’re facing fear and uncertainty. That’s as true today as it was 200,000 years ago. Don’t Let Crowd Behavior Kill Your Portfolio Imagine you and your hunter-gatherer tribe are moving to a place with more fresh water. On your way, you spot dozens of terrified members of another tribe running for their lives with terrified looks in their eyes. It’s a human stampede. Your instincts will tell you to run like the wind. It doesn’t matter if you can’t see a saber-toothed tiger or a rival tribe brandishing their spears. You just know it’s time to run. This crowd instinct is one of the reasons we survived in the wild and became the dominant species on Earth. But the urge to join a stampeding crowd can kill your stock portfolio.
The human brain is a marvelous tool for creating art, music, language, and feats of engineering. It’s a terrible tool for investing. That’s why, during my “Day After Summit” last night, I laid out an alternative approach to navigating the post-election chaos. It has nothing to do with following your instincts… or with human emotions. Instead, it’s a quantitative system I consider to be the No. 1 tool for anyone looking to turn uncertain macroeconomic, financial, or political events into outsized stock market gains. In backtests, it’s identified 3,500 stocks that have gone on to soar 1,000% or higher. And the greater the volatility, the greater the potential gains. That volatility could be from a bitterly contested election. It could also be from any number of shocks that hit the market as the Age of Chaos plays out. Whether it’s a currency shock… Another supply chain issue… A new law within the next president’s first 100 days in office… A new war breaking out… Or a powerful new technology transforming the world… If a shock event causes volatility to flare up, this system shows you how to trade it for gains. You can get full details of how it works, and how you can use it to position yourself to profit ahead of Election Day, by watching the replay of last night’s broadcast here. To get you started, I’ve included details of one trade you can place right now that I believe will pay off… no matter who’s eventually declared the winner. And if targeting short-term gains using a quantitative system is not your thing, that’s fine, too. Just remember that the worst thing you can do when volatility kicks up is to panic sell out of your long-term stock holdings. The point is, we could be in for a trying couple of months. But eventually, we’ll have a new president. And markets will return to a more stable footing. You just may need plenty of patience… and a strong stomach… to ride out the churn between now and then. Sincerely, | .png)
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