Thursday, October 31, 2024

Climate world's secret plan to bypass Trump

The behind-the-scenes efforts |

Today's newsletter looks at behind-the-scenes efforts by government officials, environmentalists and others to navigate climate diplomacy around Donald Trump if he wins back the White House. You can read the full version of this story on Bloomberg.com. For more of our coverage, please subscribe

Climate advocates and diplomats are plotting how to circumvent Trump if he wins

By Jennifer A. Dlouhy

Donald Trump has been clear that he plans to lead another US retreat from global climate diplomacy if he wins a second term in the White House, vowing to once again abandon the landmark Paris Agreement that he calls "horrendously unfair." 

Environmentalists, government officials and former diplomats are already bracing for the possibility and plotting ways to Trump-proof global cooperation on climate change. A series of conversations, crisis simulations and political wargaming have spanned the globe, described by people familiar with the sessions as galvanized by a desire to maximize climate progress — even with an adversarial US president. 

Former US President Donald Trump during a campaign event in Greensboro, North Carolina, on Oct. 22, 2024.  Photographer: Cornell Watson/Bloomberg

"These discussions are an example of global leaders having learned a lesson from their first experience with Trump," said Jake Schmidt, senior adviser to the NRDC Action Fund, an environmental group. "Other countries that are working hard on climate will not be burned again by an administration acting on behalf of fossil fuels interests."

Read More: US Climate Initiatives Most Vulnerable if Trump Wins Election

A US exodus — or even the post-election prospect of one — would trigger a wave of consequences, inevitably altering the nature of annual United Nations climate negotiations and rippling through the system in sometimes unpredictable ways. The departure of the world's second-biggest greenhouse gas emitter could provide leverage and political cover for laggard countries to stall new climate action. At the same time, it could create an opening for China, the world's top polluter, to step up and claim the mantle of climate leadership. 

With days until the global climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, worried stakeholders have been working to lock in new channels of climate diplomacy that link the US up with other institutions but don't necessarily run through Washington, DC. Officials from Maryland and California have met with Chinese officials to discuss continued climate collaboration at the subnational level, allowing state and local governments to pick up any slack. Some state representatives were part of meetings in Beijing in September while the chief US climate negotiator, John Podestaengaged in talks with his Chinese counterpart. 

Some climate negotiators have even conducted simulations to prepare for a potential Trump return and to game out strategies for how that would affect talks at the COP29 conference that begins six days after the US presidential election. Activists ran through a crisis communications simulation last week to ensure they were prepared for what an online notice called "the possible looming reality of a Trump election win and its impact on the COP29 climate talks."

World Bank Group President Ajay Banga (right) joins Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, China's then-climate envoy Xie Zhenhua, COP28 President Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber and then-US climate envoy John Kerry on stage at the UN COP28 climate conference in Dubai on Dec. 2, 2023.  Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg

During his first term, Trump promised to be beholden to Pittsburgh, not Paris. That's how he explained his decision to begin extricating the US from the global climate accord adopted by nearly 200 nations. At the time, he stopped short of abandoning the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, a treaty that lays out a goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere and compels member countries to provide a yearly inventory of that planet-warming pollution.

But some conservatives are pushing exactly that idea if Trump wins election next week. The Project 2025 blueprint of policies developed by the Heritage Foundation and other groups specifically endorses the tactic, encouraging the next conservative administration to withdraw from both the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement, after arguing that "such routinely violated treaties weaken the US economy with no offsetting societal benefits."

Read More: Project 2025, Explained: What It Says and What Trump Says About It

Advocates of that maximalist approach have also drafted language that could be tucked into an executive order to kick off the change, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named describing the work. While it's common practice for lobbyists to ghostwrite policies in hopes of winning a White House embrace, Trump's campaign has not committed to take the action and has disavowed Project 2025. Representatives of the campaign did not respond to requests for comment. Still, the drafts underscore the seriousness of the effort. 

—With Natasha White, John Ainger and Jess Shankleman

Read the full story on Bloomberg.com

The missing green voters

8 million
This is how many registered Americans had the environment as their number one issue in 2020 but didn't vote, according to the Environmental Voter Project.

What's the future for Biden's Climate Corps?

"We have built the American Climate Corps to be a durable program that will continue to serve communities around the country, no matter who is president."
Maggie Thomas
Special assistant to the president for climate
President Biden's New Deal-inspired green jobs program, the American Climate Corps, has been a target of Republican criticism. 

Worth a listen 

On the Zero podcast last month, Akshat Rathi sat down with energy and environment reporter Jen Dlouhy to discuss President Joe Biden's climate legacy and how Donald Trump could chip away at it. "Starting on day one, he's already said he intends to direct federal agencies to begin repealing and replacing climate regulations," Dlouhy told Zero. Listen now, and subscribe on AppleSpotify or YouTube to get new episodes of Zero every Thursday. 

More from Green

Generalist investors' rush into buzzier artificial intelligence has added to funding woes for climate-tech startups at just about the worst time for an industry racing to combat the effects of climate change.

Globally, climate-tech companies raised roughly $10.3 billion in equity across public and private markets in the third quarter, putting full-year funding on track to fall about 50% this year, data from BloombergNEF show. Meanwhile, capital for AI has climbed, with startups in that space raising more than $21 billion in the quarter, Pitchbook estimates.

"AI has sucked all the oxygen out of the room," said Matt Eggers, a managing director at Prelude Ventures, which invests in climate startups. "It's not like anything we've seen since perhaps mobile in 2010."

Lifestyles are key to carbon cuts. A shift in lifestyles, such as wasting less food and eating more plant-based meals are key to getting the world on track to meet the Paris Agreement commitments, according to a new study. 

Hong Kong needs more green offices. Faced with record vacancy rates and dwindling revenues, developers in the financial hub are reluctant to invest in expensive building upgrades to boost climate credentials.

Brazilians are worried about climate change. Nearly a third of Brazilians now rank environmental destruction and global warming as one of the biggest problems facing the country, a share that puts it ahead of the economy and behind only corruption and crime, according to a survey conducted by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg News.

Weather watch

By Andrea Jaramillo

Dry weather is forcing Colombia, which has one of the world's most aggressive climate plans, to burn more fossil fuel.

Colombia's electrical system is vulnerable to drought because roughly two-thirds of the nation's power comes from hydro. But after months of parched conditions, the Andean nation's energy regulator last month called upon fossil fuel-powered plants to boost output in an effort to conserve shrinking water reservoirs.

As a result, about 40% of the country's electricity is coming from fossil fuels, well above the 25% average for this month over the past decade, according to data from Colombia's power system operator XM SA. Of that, about two-thirds is from burning natural gas and most of the rest is from coal. Read more here

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