Thursday, October 3, 2024

Brussels Edition: A trade turning point

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.Europe has been talking

Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg's daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Europe has been talking for a while about being more assertive toward Chinese trade practices, but words haven't always translated into action. The EU is expected to take a big step today — and many member states are openly nervous about it. They're expected to vote to impose definitive tariffs on electric vehicles made in China, although there will likely be a number of abstentions. Germany, spurred by its industry, has long pushed for a softer approach. Beijing's threats of retaliation frequently divided the bloc. Even after the vote, Brussels and Beijing will continue to negotiate on a possible solution to avert the tariffs, but tensions will remain high. China has indicated it may respond with potential levies on dairy, brandy, pork and other goods. 

Saim Saeed and Alberto Nardelli

What's Happening

Taxing Time | France and Italy both want to squeeze more tax from companies to bring bloated budget deficits under control and ensure their credibility with bond investors. But the measures may prove to be merely a short-term fix for a region that's in need of a radical overhaul.

Border Overhaul | Hundreds of millions of people who visit the EU every year will be affected by the bloc's overhaul of its border control system. The launch is scheduled for Nov. 10, but there are doubts it will be ready in time, with airlines and port operators warning of potential disruptions if launched prematurely. We break down what the changes mean.

More Criticism | Kosovo's prime minister, Albin Kurti, dismissed criticism of his government's treatment of the Serbian minority in a sign of defiance that's likely to further alarm the EU. "They are worried too much," Kurti told us in an interview. The country recently closed Serbia-backed institutions and banned the use of Serbian currency in northern Kosovo, where most of the country's Serbian minority lives.

Bond Relief | France raised €12 billion from a sale of debt yesterday, the last before the government's budget is released next week. The sale went off without a hitch, giving Prime Minister Michel Barnier a much-needed win. Political instability has led to an increase in borrowing costs for the country, prompting some overseas investors to ditch French bonds.

Around Europe

Awaiting Response | Israel continued its invasion of Lebanon as warplanes struck Beirut and Israeli troops clashed with Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon. The country still hasn't retaliated for Iran's barrage of missiles on Tuesday evening, with world leaders fearing further escalation if Israel targets Iran's key assets, including its nuclear sites.

Target Missed | Austria said a sharper economic downturn and spending related to recent floods are likely to push its budget deficit past EU limits to 3.3% of GDP. The government cited weak economic performance that's set to lower tax revenues, as well as spending related to recent flooding and handouts to millions of residents aimed at offsetting a carbon levy. 

Moscow Interference | Moldova said it uncovered a Russia-backed operation involving 130,000 of its citizens to thwart President Maia Sandu's plan for the country to join the EU. In September, Russia gave $15 million to a Moldovan group to spread disinformation, and to launch attacks against public institutions, the national chief of police said.

Losing Streak | The euro is poised for its longest losing streak since April as traders bet on an increasingly aggressive path for interest-rate cuts by the European Central Bank. Traders have raised the odds on an ECB cut this month to around 90% as slowing inflation and deteriorating business sentiment prompt central bank officials to endorse easing.

Chart of the Day

The expansion of solar power, led by Germany, is upending traditional energy economics in Europe. Its lower cost relative to nuclear and fossil-fuel generation — as well as an encouraging regulatory framework — has driven a surge in installations, while many coal-fired plants have been retired. With renewables' capacity growth outpacing gains in consumption, the region is looking well-supplied during the peak demand season. 

Today's Agenda

All times CET

  • 1:30 p.m. Home Commissioner Ylva Johansson signs an agreement between Canada and the EU on the transfer and processing of passenger name record data at the G-7 interior ministers meeting in Italy
  • 3 p.m. Crisis management Commissioner Janez Lenarcic meets Canadian Trade Minister Mary Ng
  • Commission President Ursula von der Leyen receives EU ambassadors for a working lunch.
  • ECJ rules on Thyssenkrupp's attempt to overturn an EU antitrust veto of its plans for a joint venture with Tata Steel; on whether sensitive public information should be safeguarded from being processed on Facebook for the purposes of personalized advertising; and on whether Malta's "golden passports" program breaches EU law

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