Crypto News: Rate cut hopes rise

Good morning, it's Amy in Melbourne with your Thursday newsletter. It's been another busy morning in the pool in Paris with Kyle Chalmers claiming silver for Australia, but first…

Today's must-reads:
• Interest rate outlook shifts
• Australian house price growth slows
• Rex to ditch big city routes

The interest rates outlook has shifted — yet again — ahead of the Reserve Bank's meeting next week. Traders have shelved expectations of a rate rise after core inflation unexpectedly decelerated last quarter, and are now pricing a roughly 65% chance of a rate cut by year-end. After the weaker inflation print, traders priced a roughly 65% chance of a rate cut by year-end. In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said an interest-rate cut could come as soon as September.

Australia's center-left government will be breathing a sigh of relief after the potential interest-rate hike was all but ruled out. Still, experts say cost pressures are dissipating too slowly for an early election.

Rex will return to its roots as a small regional carrier in an attempt to emerge from administration as a viable business. Rex started major intercity services in 2021 but was thwarted by a crippling fare war with Qantas and Virgin Australia Airlines, and insufficient slots at Sydney Airport.

Photographer: Brent Lewin/Bloomberg

Australian house-price growth slowed in July. Higher borrowing costs and sticky inflation weighed on demand. New Zealand house prices fell for a fifth straight month.

Australia is poised to tighten rules that govern how companies announce their exploration results. A draft of the new code published Thursday would impose new environmental requirements, plus a need for qualified experts to sign off on estimates of minerals and metals to be mined.

Those dovish comments from the Fed's Powell helped extend a rally in stocks. There was a surge in key technology companies as equities staged a powerful rebound. Meta Platforms reported better-than-expected sales for the second quarter.

Israeli officials said the killing of Hezbollah's Fuad Shukr in Beirut late Tuesday was a response to a rocket attack that claimed the lives of a dozen children and teenagers. Hezbollah confirmed his death on Wednesday.

The journey for airlines to decarbonize is looking fraught. Air New Zealand has ditched its 2030 emissions target, and it appears there isn't enough sustainable fuel or new, more-efficient aircraft.

At the Paris Olympics, triathletes finally ventured into the Seine, with France's Cassandre Beaugrand winning the women's event and Britain's Alex Yee taking men's. The triathlon had been delayed due to water quality concerns. Bloomberg Opinion's David Fickling says promising a race in the Seine turned elite athletes into guinea pigs for the sake of a photo opportunity.

Competitors jump into the River Seine in the Men's Individual Triathlon event. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg

In China, big supermarket chains are struggling to survive. France's Carrefour has shut more than 140 mainland stores and the UK's Tesco has exited entirely. An unlikely chain is bucking that trend, Pangdonglai, with just a dozen or so stores in the heartland province of Henan. Such is its success that competitors like Walmart's China executives are studying its model.

• Rio Tinto CEO Jakob Stausholm on Bloomberg Television, 3:15pm

It's a lottery: each year, the US government runs a process for a limited number of skilled-worker visas, known as H-1Bs. It turns out the system is rigged. New data obtained by Bloomberg News reveal how thousands of companies had an unfair advantage by helping themselves to extra lottery tickets.

After failing to win the H-1B lottery, Sandeep Maganti, a 26-year-old software engineer, is considering moving back to India permanently. Photographer: Aparna Jayakumar/Bloomberg