Crypto News: No news is good news (for markets)

There are two days to go until the election. Labour has fallen slightly again to a new low in the polls, but still maintains a chunky lead over the Conservatives, according to Bloomberg's poll of polls.

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Those of us who have been watching every twist and turn of this election — my colleagues Ailbhe, Helen, Alex and Ellen, I'm looking at you — may splutter to read this Thursday being described as a "non-event".

The Conservatives may be set for an historic defeat but even so, parts of the City are tranquil. Gregor Hirt, multi-asset chief investment officer at Allianz Global Investors, thinks the result so predictable it's helping the UK's financial markets to shed their recent reputation for volatility.

"British stocks are near a record high, bond fluctuations have evaporated, and hedging against pound weakness is at a seven-year low," write Bloomberg's Naomi Tajitsu and Greg Ritchie. "That marks a rethink by investors who imposed penalties on the country's assets following the 2016 decision to leave the European Union and then Liz Truss's disastrous premiership of 2022."

The City of London Photographer: Jason Alden/Bloomberg

And so the City finds itself able to have a few moments of contentment. Money managers who spoke to our team think that UK assets are increasingly attractive compared to France and Germany, which have the political risk of the far-right on the horizon. Stock investors are particularly bullish on UK homebuilders (but less so on North Sea oil companies, which fell after Labour announced plans for a windfall tax on the sector.)

All very cheery for the next inhabitants of Numbers 10 and 11 Downing St, but it will not be only upside. As our reporters point out, if Keir Starmer wins, he will inherit stretched public services and the worst decline in living standards in decades. The next government will need to raise revenue: the only questions are from where, and how fast. Events on the continent could also trouble Starmer's attempts to negotiate a new deal on migrants. So, maybe Thursday is a non-event for some in the City — but that doesn't mean the next few months won't be eventful in their own way.

With two days to go, Rishi Sunak is throwing the kitchen sink at efforts to avert the Conservative wipeout that is currently predicted. Today he has warned that the FTSE 100 will crash under a Labour government and has reiterated his warnings that if Tory voters stay at home, Starmer will be handed a huge majority, with a "blank cheque" to do what he likes.

If, indeed, Labour performs as well as polls predict, the party is on course to have more than 400 MPs, half of whom will be brand new. Among the "Starmtroopers" (as this Labour intake is already known) there will be economists, think tankers, NGO leaders, political aides, union bosses, diplomats, lawyers, and yes, maybe even the drummer from Blur.

A polling station near the Houses of Parliament Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Labour insiders have been excited for months about the injection of talent after years of quiet grumbling that the current crop of politicians isn't up to much. The Starmtroopers are an interesting bunch of people, and although they will enter parliament inclined to be loyal, plenty have their own ideas about how to fix the problems the country is facing. Torsten Bell, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation and former adviser to Ed Miliband and Alistair Darling, is one, and another is Miatta Fahnbulleh, former chief executive of the New Economics Foundation, who also advised Miliband.

While there is some speculation about whether the Corbynite left could hold Starmer hostage (it couldn't — the hard left of the party is small, divided, and disorganized) the better question is where the instincts of these new MPs lie. They are perhaps more ambitious than the Labour leadership. The people in the shadow cabinet who favor bold changes — Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner — might have allies in the long-run, but the champions of fiscal caution could have a fight on their hands.

The stories you need to know about this evening

HSBC curbs hiring and reins in banker travel in cost-cutting push.
Why Nigel Farage's Reform UK could get millions of votes but few MPs.
Le Pen seeks majority as French rivals rush to pull candidates.
Revolut's revenue almost doubles to £1.8 billion.
City of London defers tallest tower decision amid objections.

£2,500

The average loss English universities make on each UK undergraduate, according to the Russell Group.

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Allegra Stratton worked for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak when he was chancellor and runs an environmental consultancy, Zeroism.

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