Monday, October 21, 2024

The London Rush: Borrowers’ budget blues

Budget nerves mute house price gains

Morning, I'm Louise Moon from Bloomberg UK's breaking news team, bringing you up to speed on today's top business stories.

With Labour's first budget just over a week away, speculation over tax raises and a lack of clarity has been hitting confidence across the board. Housing, it seems, is no exception.

Jitters about a belt-tightening, tax-raising budget are muting a usual autumn bounce in house prices, according to Rightmove. The average asking price of a new home edged up just 0.3% in October.

Today's data puts a slight speed bump on recent data that has nodded to a strengthening housing market.

While sales and buyer demand is strong, some estate agents say movers are waiting for post-budget clarity and hoping for cheaper mortgage rates after the Bank of England's next meeting.

But does the average person really anticipate the words of Rachel Reeves and Andrew Bailey when deciding to up sticks? Markets Today's Sam Unsted thinks a jump in properties on the market is more to blame. Scroll for his take.

What's your take? Ping me on X, LinkedIn or drop me an email at lmoon13@bloomberg.net. Oh, and do subscribe to Bloomberg.com for unlimited access to trusted business journalism on the UK, and beyond.

What We're Watching

Bowling alley operator Hollywood Bowl is continuing its expansion with six new locations planned for the UK and Canada next year. Like-for-like sales were flat in the year through September, but revenue rose as customers spent more money and time at its venues.

Engineering firm Ricardo will divest its defence business as part of a strategy to focus on environmental consultancy. That could dilute its profits in the short term.

Rachel Reeves is set to announce billions of pounds in funding for the NHS in the budget. As part of the overhaul, health secretary Wes Streeting will today ask for the public, clinicians and experts to send in ideas about the future of the health service.

But one thing the Chancellor should really be focusing on, argues Bloomberg Opinion's Merryn Webb, is protecting the stock market from private equity — and encouraging ordinary investors to get in and stay in. As she puts it: "Public markets are a public good."

Global Catch Up

Markets Today: Moving Decisions

Here's your daily snap analysis from Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog:

Rightmove's asking prices report blamed a slower rise in October on three main things: more properties on the market, interest rates and the budget at the end of the month.

The most likely reason asking prices are rising at a more muted pace is probably the first one. More properties going up for sale tilts things a little in favour of buyers, so sellers have to price accordingly.

Mortgage rates have plateaued and even edged up slightly. But the vast majority of people don't base their moving decisions on trying to predict what the Bank of England is going to do, particularly when the answer is cut rates at a pretty gradual pace.

And the budget? Maybe there are some jitters given some recent reports about plans for stamp duty. However, going back to the last point, that's not the psychology of most people moving house. If they want or need to move for more space, a garden, or to be nearer to family, that will outweigh any policy changes that may or may not come.

Sam Unsted

Check Bloomberg UK's Markets Today blog for updates all day.

What's Next

InterContinental Hotels (Holiday Inn, Crowne Plaza etc) reports on its third quarter. Overall revenue per room is expected to rise just slightly, on a year-on-year basis, with China strengthening.

Quick Coffee with: Suman Rao

After kicking her career off as a developer, Suman Rao now runs the UK and Ireland operations of Avaloq, which provides software for wealth managers

Photographer: Leonard Kehnscherper/Bloomberg

How do you save time? By avoiding multi-tasking. I know women are expected to juggle 20 different balls at the same time, but I've learned the most efficient way to save time is to complete one task and then do another. 

On big days, I wear… Things I'm comfortable with, like my Apple watch. I'm a geek at heart.

Your favourite lunch place? My husband and I have a home in Malaga and my favourite place there is Martin Playa, an amazing beach bar in Fuengirola. 

My worst trade, or equivalent, was… I bought a few Bitcoin in 2014 and sold them a week before prices really took off in 2021.

At the start of my career, I wish someone had told me… To ask more questions. When you're young and older colleagues speak with full confidence, you don't really dare to ask why — and will learn less.

What are you reading? I'm currently re-reading James Clavell's Shogun. I find all the plotting and finding out people's weaknesses very intriguing. 

How do you switch off? Something that helps when I'm really stressed is to leave my desk, go on the terrace and listen to Radiohead or Motown Blues for 30 minutes or so.

— Leo Kehnscherper

Pub Quiz

The government is considering "mutualising" an old British institution, meaning it would transfer ownership to the thousands of employees, according to reports over the weekend. It would create a model similar to John Lewis'. Which company is it?

[Friday's answer: Tate & Lyle originated as a sugar refiner in 1921, when two rival businesses, Henry Tate & Sons and Abram Lyle & Sons, merged.]

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