| Picture the scene. It's 5 a.m. on July 4. Many of the results are in, and the Conservatives have seen a wipeout. Keir Starmer will soon be on his way to Downing Street, on course for a landslide. But around the edges, there are seats that buck the trend. Thangam Debbonaire, Starmer's would-be culture secretary, loses her Bristol Central seat to the Greens, while Shabana Mahmood, his justice secretary in waiting, only holds on to her Birmingham Ladywood seat by a thread. Other top Labour candidates unexpectedly lose out in seats that were assumed to be safely red. This isn't idle fancy, but a scenario actively being discussed by people at the top of the Labour Party. Yes, they might win big, but in places where voters have another viable option — a Green, an independent — they could yet see unexpected losses on July 4. In fact, that's what we saw in the local elections in England. If you chat privately to Labour officials, they know the mood in the country is more mixed than the dizzying poll lead suggests. Labour officials are generally relaxed about losing a few thousand votes to the Greens in urban seats that they will still hold, but in Bristol Central it could cost them a valuable scalp. While Debonnaire insists publicly she is confident, I'm told that privately she has viewed her preparation for government work as a sad "handover note." Starmer could well spend that first morning in Downing Street finding a new culture secretary.  Starmer and Thangam Debbonaire on a campaign stop at Bristol Rovers. Photographer: Geoff Caddick/Getty Images Another of his top team facing a tough test is Mahmood, who would become the most senior Muslim in his government if she and Labour are victorious. Mahmood is facing a challenge from the "TikTok lawyer" Akhmed Yakoob, an independent campaigning against Labour's record on Gaza. While Labour officials believe Mahmood will hang on, Heather Iqbal, Rachel Reeves' well-liked former director of communications, is also facing a difficult test in the West Yorkshire seat of Dewsbury and Batley, I've heard, with her former colleagues worrying that she will be a rare Labour loss on a night of celebrations elsewhere, a casualty of Labour's early position on Gaza. I was in Batley to report for our feature out tomorrow, and I can confirm that the mood on the ground is pretty grim for Labour. Starmer could also be in for a personal shock on Thursday night, if he wins a landslide but discovers that his former close aide, Chris Ward, is not among the new cohort. I'm told the Labour leader personally asked for Ward to be given a seat, but his ex-adviser is struggling in Labour-held Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven against the Greens. Given the majority there, a loss would be extraordinary, but Ward has struggled for support from his local party after being imposed, replacing a Corbynite incumbent. On an otherwise historic night of victory for Labour, it would be highly symbolic to Starmer's left-wing dissenters if Ward ended up losing out. And don't forget the most symbolic fight of all: it's a long shot for him, but Jeremy Corbyn could yet win in Islington North, standing against the party he used to lead. As MRP after MRP suggests wins that don't entirely chime with a more complex picture on the ground, Labour party officials keep reminding themselves of that Shimon Peres quote: "Polls are like perfume: nice to smell, dangerous to swallow." We'll have a whole feature on Labour's vulnerabilities, with interviews with some of the candidates above and on-the-ground reporting from the key seats, out tomorrow. | 
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