| This is Bloomberg Opinion Today, a bombastic compendium of Bloomberg Opinion's opinions. Sign up here. The criminal conviction of Donald Trump in a New York court appears to set all sorts of precedents. The US has come close before: Richard Nixon appeared headed for a painful trial in August 1974 after he resigned over the Watergate scandal, but his successor Gerald Ford issued an unconditional pardon a month after. In 1865, Jefferson Davis — the president of the Confederate States of America — was put in prison but eventually released before going on trial for treason and, well, the civil war. In both cases, the underlying impulse for avoiding trials and conviction was to put an end to nightmares and move on. The Trump trial (and the ones to come) is as painfully divisive as Watergate and, as partisanship spills into the streets, has Americans seeing specters of civil war. As Bloomberg's Editorial Board declares: "Whatever one's view of this verdict, these are incredibly grim signs for American politics." Unlike post-Watergate and the aftermath of the civil war, however, there is no papering over of the past. "Realistically," says the Board, "there's no going back." Other countries, however, have fearlessly (or perhaps vengefully) put ex-leaders through the ringer of public trial and conviction to answer for crimes committed in office. Peru is the most consistent: Ex-presidents Alberto Fujimori, Pedro Castillo and Alejandro Toledo have served or are serving sentences in what are now the standing presidential "apartments" at Barbadillo prison on the outskirts of Lima. Another former leader, Ollanta Humala spent time there in pre-trial detention. In the Philippines, Joseph Estrada was overthrown in a controversial "constitutional coup" and then was tried and found guilty of "plunder." He spent seven years in detention, mostly in a comfortable vacation home before he was granted clemency by his successor Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (who would herself face legal challenges after leaving the presidency). South Korea has put several ex-presidents in prison, most recently Lee Myung-bak and his predecessor Park Geun-hye, both receiving 25-year sentences for embezzlement and corruption. Beginning with Bill Clinton, the US has gone after its presidents with long, humiliating though essentially toothless impeachment trials. Convict Trump makes it different. It may be the kind of justice many countries have seen this before and have become used to, but for the US, it was finally time. As Tim O'Brien writes: "There may be violence in the streets in response to this verdict. But it was long overdue. There may be political fissures that take years to mend. But it was long overdue. There may be a generation of voters and citizens permanently soured on the courts and their neighbors. But it was long overdue." Policy analysts have long noted the parallels between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on China. Indeed, the sitting president has continued — if not further reinforced — much of what his predecessor set in place, including the scrutiny of students returning to US schools from the mainland. But my colleagues Minxin Pei and Andreas Kluth are now flagging similarities between Biden and China's President Xi Jinping. In his latest column, Minxin juxtaposes China's paranoia about security (including removing US data technology from state-owned enterprises) with American paranoia (no China-made cranes please and no chip-sharing with Beijing). Andreas, meanwhile, is alarmed by the voluminous protectionist talk and action coming out of the White House and Congress to counter what's seen as China's unfair "overcapacity" and subsidized industries. US trade policies have, in turn, provoked not just Chinese responses but similar protectionism in other parts of the world. Indeed, trade warriors may just turn the cold war between Washington and Beijing into a hot war, as the planet is split among polarized blocs once more. Tim Culpan looks at Chinese free-trade blandishments with South Korea in this light. Says Andreas: "Global trade and finance are fragmenting into rival and increasingly hostile blocs, one centered on China and extending into the 'Global South,' another around the US and other Western countries. This trend... will increase the likelihood of conflict and is reminiscent of the 1930s." Washington's tariffs on Chinese solar panels, for example, have already warped market values. As David Fickling points out, the big four manufacturers are Chinese but after Biden imposed his 50% duties, an American maker First Solar is now worth more than China's top three combined. "That's in spite of the fact that it uses a niche, high-cost technology that most companies have given up on, and can produce less than one gigawatt of cells for every 18 GW from the three Chinese companies," David writes. Minxin points out that the ruling Chinese Communist Party has proven nimble in the past and can adapt to shifts in geopolitics (for example, the surprise collaboration with Elon Musk's Tesla Inc.). Meanwhile, he writes, the US — with its political and bureaucratic sclerosis — may just stumble into rigidity: "Washington's own paranoia could lead to policies that produce marginal gains in security while eroding economic efficiency and innovation, not to mention American soft power." Andreas concurs, especially with the US veering away from the economic liberalism that helped create global prosperity in the second half of the 20th century. He writes: "this shift has frightening implications for the world economy and world peace. Hegemonic Stability Theory, which posits that the world needs a custodian power to maintain order and prosperity, assumes that the global leader is not only mighty enough but also willing to deploy its might to preserve a liberal system." Washington's self-proclaimed "good guy" role could deteriorate into that of just another bad actor. A number of apparent sabotage attacks by suspected Russian agents have ratcheted up anxiety in Western Europe. Is the war in Ukraine spilling over? "Russia naturally denies any culpability," writes Hal Brands, "but where there is this much smoke — literal or figurative — there is probably some fire." It's feeding into the debate over military conscription as well as the realization that — no matter how the war ends — the Russian threat will always hang over NATO and the EU. Says Hal: "If [Putin] doubted America's commitment to Europe — perhaps because it had once again elected a president who continually derides NATO — he might be tempted to conduct a smash-and-grab attack, perhaps against the Baltic States, to show just how hollow the alliance had become." It's a smart and scary strategy by the Kremlin. "This isn't just some harassment campaign, some fit of geopolitical pique. These tactics erode Western countries' sovereignty and unsettle their politics." "If you measure technology by the value of the companies that sell it, you would argue — as some in the US have been doing — that AI is the future of industry, while renewable power is a busted flush… Markets aren't wrong to make such a binary assessment. Nvidia really is a fundamentally better business than China's big solar four… You might see this as a triumph of American free markets over Chinese dirigisme. That's not quite right, though. The reason the panel-makers are struggling is precisely because they operate in a wide-open market with very low barriers to entry — a great setup if you want to grow the industry, but a terrible one for generating sustainable profits." — David Fickling in "Why Nvidia, Not Solar, Has a Place in the Sun."  "Chinese love new apartment buildings… Hong Kong, one of the most expensive real estate markets in the world, offers a good window into China's future. New developments in the Central business district are rare… If one wants to save commute time and not live in a pigeonhole, she has to go for older, pre-owned homes. They are much larger and a lot cheaper. Mainland China is playing out the same way... Homeowners in Japan, for instance, also had a strong taste for newly built housing. Their attitude shifted over time." — Shuli Ren in "All Homes Grow Old. China Will Get Used to It."  Source: Morgan Stanley UBS is off to the races. — Paul J. Davies It's not what's rote for AI. — Chris Bryant No last hurrah for independence. — Karishma Vaswani Give China's entrepreneurs a break. — The editors Ukraine and its allies need a new strategy. — Marc Champion OPEC+ should cut the confusion. — Javier Blas So much talk of war has flooded the news (including my colleague Adrian Wooldridge's exposition on conscription) that I decided to take a walk through the Inner Temple and its gardens for some respite on a semi-sunny day in London. I quickly realized as I passed one bower of white roses that even this lovely refuge had been entangled in war.  White roses in one of the smaller gardens in the Inner Temple Photograph by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg William Shakespeare set the beginning of the 15th century War of the Roses in a garden in London, where — in Henry VI Part 1 — the potential combatants were made to choose between blooms of white or red in the impending civil broil. Richard Plantagenet — representing the forces of the House of York — declares. "Let him that is a trueborn gentleman/ And stands upon the honor of his birth,/ If he suppose that I have pleaded truth,/ From off this brier pluck a white rose with me." The Duke of Somerset — representing the Lancastrian forces — in turn says: "Let him that is no coward nor no flatterer,/ But dare maintain the party of the truth,/ Pluck a red rose from off this torn with me." The kingdom then divides into two florid factions. Despite the beauty of the roses, the war is bloody. As another character says, "Here I prophesy: this brawl to-day/ Grown to this faction in the Temple garden/ Shall send, between the red rose and the white,/ A thousand souls to death and deadly night." The dramatization of the scene, of course, is art not fact. But the toll of war was true and deadly. Thanks for hanging with me. Here's a corollary to the column I wrote this week.  "Don't get me wrong. He's 100% of the people, by the people and for the people. But he still likes being treated like a king." Illustration by Howard Chua-Eoan/Bloomberg Notes: Please send king cakes and feedback to Howard Chua-Eoan at hchuaeoan@bloomberg.net. Sign up here and follow us on Instagram, TikTok, Twitter and Facebook. | 
No comments:
Post a Comment